Stebo Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Can we cut the criticism of NWS offices please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reber500 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Wow... Strong Rotation is evident on the OUN Radar West of Ponca City and that's 100+ Miles north... The NWS irritates me sometimes with there lack of wanting to issue warnings for reason beyond my understanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Can we cut the criticism of NWS offices please. I'm not criticizing...but the apparent debris signature does indicate a likely miss on that. Hoping it wasn't a big deal. Actually...I'm usually the one happy to see OUN holding off on TORs during a lot of these situations where its easy to start warning early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Alright folks, keep the silly criticism, comments, smiley faces, and back/forth banter to a minimum. And yes, stop the armchair assessments. Please don't pretend you understand what is going on in a warning environment unless you have been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Reminds me a bit of Harrisburg NC on March 3. RAH issued a TOR for a circulation approaching their CWA, but GSP did not warn the same one as it was exiting theirs. Ponca City is right on the edge of OUN's area, and Tulsa issued a warning for their first county. I guess OUN figured it was too late by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iowahawkeyedave Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 http://www.poncacity.com/webcam.htm Ponca City Webcam, tons of lightning and the camera is really bouncing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like it cut itself off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1120 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 OKC113-117-010445- /O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120501T0445Z/ OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK- 1120 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR PAWNEE AND WESTERN OSAGE COUNTIES... AT 1115 PM CDT...POTENTIAL TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY TO WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. TORNADOES MAY FORM RAPIDLY ANYWHERE ALONG THIS LINE! THIS STORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NIGHTTIME TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS...TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 OUN reporting heat burst in Kingfisher. Temp spike and 55+mph gusts on mesonet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 OUN reporting heat burst in Kingfisher. Temp spike and 55+mph gusts on mesonet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Memphis is there a TDS near Fairfax right now? I keep picking up a persistent, strong circulation in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Memphis is there a TDS near Fairfax right now? I keep picking up a persistent, strong circulation in that area. Nothing definitive I can see but its starting to get far out in range so data not as reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Not completely related, but very nasty weather headed toward those leaving the Thunder/Mavs game...esp on the way home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Didn't see this posted (I apologize if it already was) but Medford's Mesonet gusted up to 84MPH. Pretty freaking impressive! Other notable Mesonet wind reports include Hollis, OK at 76 mph, Minco, OK at 75 mph, and Fort Cobb, OK at 64 mph. Sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Did not know what a heat burst was until tonight, looks like they are extremely rare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Did not know what a heat burst was until tonight, looks like they are extremely rare! yep, they don't happen with many storms, due to how they rapidly dry-mix air to the surface from storms as dramatically like a chinook. but when they do, you could see temps rise as much as 20-25C in minutes and then drop back down within an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 A shot of the Medford, OK tornado from Ben Holcomb.... http://www.benholcomb.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 yep, they don't happen with many storms, due to how they rapidly dry-mix air to the surface from storms as dramatically like a chinook. but when they do, you could see temps rise as much as 20-25C in minutes and then drop back down within an hour or so. Heat bursts used to be thought as rare, but since the explosion of ASOS/AWOS in the late 90s and mesonet sites, they are far more common than once thought. The are often quite localized so we just missed them more in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 A shot of the Medford, OK tornado from Ben Holcomb.... http://www.benholcomb.com/ That's a great night shot right there. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 yeah heat bursts happen frequently in OK and TX, especially in the summer months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Spin up near Nowata again. AT 1243 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF NOWATA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looks like the heat burst has made it as far east at Guthrie. Temp there has jumped to 81 with 40mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 A shot of the Medford, OK tornado from Ben Holcomb.... http://www.benholcomb.com/ Excellent night shot there, quite a debris cloud at the base too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Reminds me of Reading, KS last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Moving into the discussion for the northern plains, I am highly skeptical of the moisture return the NAM is progging. GFS seems much more reasonable with upper 50s to low 60s...with the best return into southern MN. Milder CAPE at or slightly above 1000-1500 j/kg seems more reasonable than the bombastic NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NEB...NERN KS...IA...MOST OF MN AND WRN WI... ...SYNOPSIS... A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MO VALLEY ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY...HELPING TO MOVE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NEWD WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. MEANWHILE...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN SWWD ACROSS NEB. BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ...MID MO INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION STORMS MAY EXIST ACROSS MN AND IA EARLY NEAR A WARM FRONT...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. THEN...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL BRING MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD INTO THE REGION...CREATING STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE WARM SECTOR. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STORMS SHOULD ERUPT BY 21Z...BEGINNING OVER NRN MN NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...THEN FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE ENHANCED OVER CNTRL/NRN MN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF EARLY CONVECTION AND WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL HOLD. AS A RESULT...A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENDS UP BEING AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looking at surface obs, I'm having a hard time picking out the surface warm front that is supposed to be the focus of tornadoes around or North of the MSP area. But I am just an amateur. I might be able to pick out something in Wisconsin running towards Lake Superior, and from the low in NCen SD towards the ND/MN/Canadian triple point, but nothing around or North of MSP that is real obvious on cursory inspection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Looking at surface obs, I'm having a hard time picking out the surface warm front that is supposed to be the focus of tornadoes around or North of the MSP area. But I am just an amateur. I might be able to pick out something in Wisconsin running towards Lake Superior, and from the low in NCen SD towards the ND/MN/Canadian triple point, but nothing around or North of MSP that is real obvious on cursory inspection. It is subtle, but it most certainly is there. Not all warm fronts are extremely backed in the low levels like you may get with deeper cyclones. It certainly is a progressive wave/cyclone scenario here, but the warm front should still provide an environment favorable for tornadoes if the low clouds can sufficiently mix out by later afternoon. It certainly won't be a tor outbreak though. I am thinking discrete initiation followed by a QLCS later evening as the storms trek through MN, but it is definitely going to be a relatively significant potential early season event for MN (my home state). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Anyone else notice twisterdata and a few other sites haven't updated since the 11z RUC run? I believe it's because the RUC replacement (RAP) started today at 12z. Wonder how long it will take for some of these favorite sites to switch over to the new RAP input. You would think twisterdata would have been on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 Anyone else notice twisterdata and a few other sites haven't updated since the 11z RUC run? I believe it's because the RUC replacement (RAP) started today at 12z. Wonder how long it will take for some of these favorite sites to switch over to the new RAP input. You would think twisterdata would have been on top of that. Ah, thanks for bringing this up. I forgot this was today. SPC meso has the new information listed as RAP too. "The SPC runs a comprehensive surface objective analysis scheme called SFCOA. The system runs at the top of each hour, using the latest 40km RAP forecast grids as a first guess. Next, the surface data is merged with the latest RAP forecast/analysis upper-air data to represent a 3-dimensional current objective analysis. Finally, each gridpoint is post-processed with a sounding analysis routine called NSHARP to calculate many technical diagnostic fields related to severe storms." http://www.spc.noaa....r/mesoanalysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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