SluggerWx Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Sitting in Denver 4 stories high next to city park. awesome cg right now and intense wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I don't know why anyone would be calling tomorrow a "surprise". There certainly is tornado potential if the NAM is correct with its depiction of a bent-back surface low, mid/upper 60s dewpoints, and strong cap breaking convergence along the Pacific front. There are a couple of warm layers evident in the NAM across the low level warm sector...so that may limit low level buoyancy as well. Nonetheless a threat is there and I don't think anyone is surprised by any depictions. Well I mean compared to the current SPC percentages, I just mean it looks as though it could get a little more dicey than some expected earlier, considering the lack of hatching / 30%+ probs that are usually red flags. Sorry for the confusion. I do agree that the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I would say the 00Z GFS came in slightly more impressive even though the low itself is slightly weaker. Slightly better kinematic fields and the pool of higher dewpoints is pulled westward closer to the Pacific front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Oh and apparently a brief tornado caused some damage near Yoder, CO this evening: "BRIEF TOUCH DOWN. THIN FUNNEL. DAMAGED WELL BUILT 30 FOOT BARN, SCATTERED PIECES OF METAL ROOF, PICKED UP 6 INCH CEDAR POSTS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Well I mean compared to the current SPC percentages, I just mean it looks as though it could get a little more dicey than some expected earlier, considering the lack of hatching / 30%+ probs that are usually red flags. Sorry for the confusion. I do agree that the potential is there. SPC forecasts probs, not necessarily potential alone. They outlined uncertainty among the position/strength of the surface low in the Day 2...mentioning the potential for a confined area of locally enhanced severe weather. Seems reasonable to me. I can guarantee none of the FO's are unaware of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 00z NAM is rolling in. I am somewhat concerned because Springfield, MO NWS has been increasing their wording today and have now put up a Severe briefing. http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=webbriefing I really like the Enhanced HWO Springfield has. Easy for EM's, public, spotters, TV, etc. to use and understand. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=hwo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I am dubious about those moisture values on the NAM and GFS. They sucked on Wednesday and the path the moisture will be taking is not exactly supportive of such high values. There could be some pooling between the boundaries, but I don't see moisture being as robust as what's being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I am dubious about those moisture values on the NAM and GFS. They sucked on Wednesday and the path the moisture will be taking is not exactly supportive of such high values. There could be some pooling between the boundaries, but I don't see moisture being as robust as what's being depicted. I am, to a degree as well, but considering the pool of mid/upper dews are already in place across C OK, it isn't nearly a stretch as it was Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I really like the Enhanced HWO Springfield has. Easy for EM's, public, spotters, TV, etc. to use and understand. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=hwo I like Tulsa OK's Decision Support page more since it lists Max Hail size, Wind Speed and prob of being in a warning. http://www.srh.noaa....esh=5&width=770 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Mid-upper 60 dewpoints down in OK at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Looking at the 00z soundings and current sfc map reveals something interesting. You have good dewpoint pooling in OK and N TX at the sfc. At Dallas, that moisture is extremely shallow. Further N though, in OKC, there is substantial depth to the good moisture, with a prototypical loaded gun sounding. If that moisture depth can translate to the regions of eastern KS tomorrow near the triple point, there could certainly be some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 NSSL's WRF out to 23h with some interesting results thus far... http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The day 1 is one of the best, most detailed SWODYs I have ever read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The day 1 is one of the best, most detailed SWODYs I have ever read. It really was, very detailed. SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING TIMING/DURATION OF FAVORABLE SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN KS...OTHERWISE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EVEN GREATER SVR PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME APPARENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 ...Supercell City in East KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Wow...wrf is lighting it up as early as 19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Those cells would all be in a very favorable kinematic environment for potentially strong tornadoes. The sfc wind vectors on the NSSL WRF are strongly backed near the triple point right under the areas these storms would be tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/00/ Man, that final line just turns into big discrete supercells once it hits Eastern KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Man, that final line just turns into big discrete supercells once it hits Eastern KS. Got some 60 dbz returns showing up there, impressive for a CONUS simulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This setup resembles 4/14/11 (Tushka) to an extent. I missed that event and i'll have to miss this event too, due to prior obligations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Impressive sounding at Joplin at 03z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This setup resembles 4/14/11 (Tushka) to an extent. I missed that event and i'll have to miss this event too, due to prior obligations. You actually read my mind...synoptically this isn't nearly as spectacular, but the position of the Pacific front is close to where the dryline was 4/14/11..and the front has that same arc shape as that event. That event was significantly more unstable too...but there are some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 I won't be chasing later today since it appears chaser convergence will be a problem (again) and Southeast Kansas isn't the most terrain-friendly area. I'll leave it to the forum veterans to forecast, but I am concerned that several high resolution models (NSSL WRF, 06Z RUC) are showing convection developing into Northern Oklahoma, eventually slamming into SW MO and Joplin. If it becomes apparant that storms will build as far south as N/NE OK into SW MO, I might consider making the trip up I-44 from OKC and place my bets. Otherwise, I do expect a prolific tornadic supercell in Eastern Kansas later today. In fact, it could be one of the most photogenic storms of the plains season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 You actually read my mind...synoptically this isn't nearly as spectacular, but the position of the Pacific front is close to where the dryline was 4/14/11. That event was significantly more unstable too...but there are some similarities. I do like this event a bit more though in the sense that you don't have a closed mid level circulation close to the warm sector, which eventually caused the storm mode to go awry with the Tushka outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I do like this event a bit more though in the sense that you don't have a closed mid level circulation close to the warm sector, which eventually caused the storm mode to go awry with the Tushka outbreak. Yeah that cyclone bombed out too much and closed into one tight tropospheric cyclone...bad for the vertical shear profile. Still, it was the sweetest looking sat image in years across the plains. The epitome of synoptic beauty. The atmosphere put on a show that day (minus the Tushka tornado). I keep posting this...but it is because it was so wicked: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 This system will be weakening though instead of bombing so hopefully that changes things, lol The SPC WRF is crazy tho. Waiting on the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 It's nasty, with higher SRH than the 00z run for the threatened area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Probably not a good sign when you get a report of a tornado at 3 AM in Colorado, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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