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Severe Weather Thread (April 26 - May 3)


David Reimer

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WFUS53 KDDC 302227

TORDDC

KSC057-069-083-302300-

/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0035.120430T2227Z-120430T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

527 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

EAST CENTRAL GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 3 MILES

NORTHWEST OF HOWELL. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 30

MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED

WITH THIS STORM.

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Dodge City:

AT 527 PM CDT...STORM CHASERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 3 MILES NORTH OF HOWELL.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. LARGE

DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

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Today is looking good off the Caprock. Not much to add to Panhandle magic. Tomorrow, Tuesday, I'd focus on whatever outflow boundary can drop through central Minnesota after morning rain. Northern Iowa may also be in play with backed low level flow. I know that is assuming a lot. My point is just that the OFB intersection with the DL will be better than down the DL in this situation. We're not in Kansas anymore. Farther south into Nebraska veering and/or capping could be an issue. Could. It may still go. On the other side, believe northern Minnesota stays stable in stratoform rain. Farther northwest, southern Manitoba might be some low-top sups close to the surface low. That is a separate target area in my mind. My primary would be depart MSP. Unfortunately I'm just a bit out of range for that and air fare is atrocious.

My sister and I discussed this. She is setting up near Alber Lea MN Tue. Good Choice? We figured the road choices were many. I hope she won't be too far East.

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Snippet from new AFD for Cap Rock, huge hail being reported:

VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ALSO FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR

SUPERCELLS PRODUCING GIANT/DAMAGING HAIL...WHEREVER STORMS CAN

REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE THROUGH MATURE STAGE...WITH 40-50 KT

EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR CAPROCK. 4.25 INCH STONES ALREADY

REPORTED IN BORDEN COUNTY AROUND 2230Z.

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For Tomorrow 5/1. It looks like the NAM and the GFS have started to back off on the cape vales in MN according to their 18z runs. (I can't post pics, password protected site), for instance the Nam now shows at 7pm on the 18z run cape values around 1700-2000 for the MSP area as opposed to 2000-2500 on the 12z run. The GFS 18z has moved in the same direction. With the lack of CIN and the cloud cover that both models were showing on the 12z runs, this is not surprising. It looks like they will be going to the ECMWF solution which shows the best cape values just south of MSP for tomorrow night. But that is not a bad thing for severe convection for MSP, often times the biggest storms will set up along the northern edge of the greatest CAPE values.

For instance this looks somewhat interesting.

eastarw.northcent.radarcomp36.gif

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For Tomorrow 5/1. It looks like the NAM and the GFS have started to back off on the cape vales in MN according to their 18z runs. (I can't post pics, password protected site), for instance the Nam now shows at 7pm on the 18z run cape values around 1700-2000 for the MSP area as opposed to 2000-2500 on the 12z run.

Given the magnitude of the low level and bulk shear, CAPE like that will be more than sufficient (300-500 J/kg probably isn't going make a whole lot of difference), any breaks in the clouds will obviously exacerbate the situation.

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