baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 OK Mesonet 48 hour rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 well, i guess i can say one good thing about the potential mess on tuesday. at least i'm not on call for it. now i just wish i had a friend around here that had a condo or a tall roof with a near 360 degree view of the sky. and fwiw, apparently we have a torcon of 5 attm for most of MN, and it looks like they are betting at TWC for possible storms all the way up to YWG and YQK/YXL. 06 run hinting at even try to take it all the way to YQT/DLH/EAU/MQT/GRB. Certainly looks very interesting for you on Tuesday. My best bet will be some elevated storms Tuesday morning into the afternoon near the warm front. Maybe some hail with a few of the cells but that's about it. Main show will probably be to my south and east. I'm definitely intrigued by how far north the storm track continues to be, at times. I'm cautiously optimistic about an active storm season up here in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 Heading to Childress and will access from there. Looks like an active caprock day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Heading to Childress and will access from there. Looks like an active caprock day! Today looks prime for all sorts of action. Won't be surprised if you catch a tor in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 That outflow boundary is in a prime position for where supercells will likely be tracking later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Snippet from the AFD from Amarillo. REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THINK GIANT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD POTENTIALLY BE UP TO GRAPEFRUIT SIZE DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT...AND HAIL GROWTH CAPE VALUES UP TO 1100 J/KG. INTERNAL STORM DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW LARGE THE HAIL MAY GROW...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CERTAINLY BE FAVORABLE FOR GIANT HAIL GROWTH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A GUYMON TO CLAUDE LINE BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING OR DEVELOP IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1800 J/KG...0-3 KM CAPE VALUES UP TO 150 J/KG...LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL HEIGHTS LESS THAN 1200 M...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VECTORS UP TO 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED. ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVELY DEEP...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The COD crew is in LBB still getting their windshield replaced. Planning to leave by 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 The COD crew is in LBB still getting their windshield replaced. Planning to leave by 2pm. Same for Connor in AMA haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 New Day 2 outlook: ...N CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COINCIDING WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS POTENTIAL MAY PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS. WHILE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT WIND PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM MOTION TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. ONE OR TWO LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT THE QUESTION...WITH THE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The only question I have at this point is how much sunlight will be available. We could get stuck in the soup up here in MN, thus limiting day time heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Calling for grapefruit sized hail seems a bit over the top, impressive environment, but I don't know if it is that impressive for giant hail that size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Really trying to figure out if the dryline further south can go tomorrow or not. The 12z NAM really wants to mix out moisture east of the dryline where the GFS doesn't and really backs the winds with 40kts of flow at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Same for Connor in AMA haha saw his post on fb about it lol lots of chasers lost them yesterday it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Effective Layer STP from the NAM and the GFS I actually think the GFS is the more probable solution. Here is link I use for these maps. http://www.wxcaster.com/experimental_products.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 true about the soup potential. but from what i'm seeing in the bufkit extrapolations, even if we get stuck in the soup, we have enough elevated energy for at least a good hail/wind event. so tornadoes, i'll wait until the morning to be sure. but maybe a mod risk might be warranted anyway just because of the possible extent of the wind/hail damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 And you thought the chasers had it bad last night around LBB... From KCBD: http://www.kcbd.com/slideshow?widgetid=51311 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Snippet from the AFD from Amarillo. REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THINK GIANT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD POTENTIALLY BE UP TO GRAPEFRUIT SIZE DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT...AND HAIL GROWTH CAPE VALUES UP TO 1100 J/KG. I agree the environment around Childress TX looks very supportive of supercell development. On the SPC Mesoanalysis 6-hour forecast (not analysis), the effective layer STP is 6. This is east of Lubbock, west of Childress. Supercell parameter is 20 in that section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 Heading west out of Childress to Turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Well defined OFB southwest of LBB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301908Z - 302045Z SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS OF 1845Z. TSTMS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL/AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE. STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION/QUICKLY ERODING CINH THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION /AROUND 30 KT/ PER REGIONAL PROFILERS...BUT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TX SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED. ..GUYER.. 04/30/2012 ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 true about the soup potential. but from what i'm seeing in the bufkit extrapolations, even if we get stuck in the soup, we have enough elevated energy for at least a good hail/wind event. so tornadoes, i'll wait until the morning to be sure. but maybe a mod risk might be warranted anyway just because of the possible extent of the wind/hail damage. May 25, 2008 anyone? Similar setup and that one missed me by 4 miles. Little nervous about tomorrow. Oh well it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Today is looking good off the Caprock. Not much to add to Panhandle magic. Tomorrow, Tuesday, I'd focus on whatever outflow boundary can drop through central Minnesota after morning rain. Northern Iowa may also be in play with backed low level flow. I know that is assuming a lot. My point is just that the OFB intersection with the DL will be better than down the DL in this situation. We're not in Kansas anymore. Farther south into Nebraska veering and/or capping could be an issue. Could. It may still go. On the other side, believe northern Minnesota stays stable in stratoform rain. Farther northwest, southern Manitoba might be some low-top sups close to the surface low. That is a separate target area in my mind. My primary would be depart MSP. Unfortunately I'm just a bit out of range for that and air fare is atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 32kft tops northwest of Hereford. EDIT: 35kft EDIT2: Now 44kft northwest of Hereford. Really taking off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Tcu SW of LBB not doing anything, T-Td spreads are huge now. Thinking NE of AMA might be best play today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Tcu SW of LBB not doing anything, T-Td spreads are huge now. Thinking NE of AMA might be best play today. Cell SE of LBB just popped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Looks like there's a dryline bulge near and just east of Lubbock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 still pretty poopy out there. bufkit likes NE of AMA around 23z. no cap and 40kts of effective shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 hell, I'd be just west of DDC right now if I could teleport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Something nasty is developing near DDC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 big, new Tor warning for N of DDC. not seeing great g2g rotation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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