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Severe Weather Thread (April 26 - May 3)


David Reimer

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well, i guess i can say one good thing about the potential mess on tuesday. at least i'm not on call for it. now i just wish i had a friend around here that had a condo or a tall roof with a near 360 degree view of the sky.

and fwiw, apparently we have a torcon of 5 attm for most of MN, and it looks like they are betting at TWC for possible storms all the way up to YWG and YQK/YXL. 06 run hinting at even try to take it all the way to YQT/DLH/EAU/MQT/GRB.

Certainly looks very interesting for you on Tuesday.

My best bet will be some elevated storms Tuesday morning into the afternoon near the warm front. Maybe some hail with a few of the cells but that's about it. Main show will probably be to my south and east.

I'm definitely intrigued by how far north the storm track continues to be, at times. I'm cautiously optimistic about an active storm season up here in the coming months.

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Snippet from the AFD from Amarillo.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THINK GIANT HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SUPERCELL

THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD POTENTIALLY BE UP TO GRAPEFRUIT

SIZE DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP

TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT...AND HAIL GROWTH CAPE

VALUES UP TO 1100 J/KG. INTERNAL STORM DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE

IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...WILL DICTATE EXACTLY HOW LARGE THE HAIL MAY

GROW...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CERTAINLY

BE FAVORABLE FOR GIANT HAIL GROWTH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT

BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A GUYMON TO CLAUDE LINE BETWEEN 6

PM AND 10 PM AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME ENLARGED DUE TO THE

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING OR DEVELOP

IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED

LAYER CAPE VALUES UP TO 1800 J/KG...0-3 KM CAPE VALUES UP TO 150

J/KG...LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL HEIGHTS LESS THAN 1200 M...AND 0-1

KM SHEAR VECTORS UP TO 20 KT. HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE

HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER STORMS CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY DUE TO

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVELY DEEP...WARM CLOUD

DEPTHS.

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New Day 2 outlook:

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

...N CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

TORNADIC POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. LARGE

CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COINCIDING WITH STRONGER DEEP

LAYER SHEAR MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A

NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY. THIS POTENTIAL MAY PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING HOURS...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST

WISCONSIN...MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS.

WHILE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED TO

A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT WIND

PROFILES MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORM MOTION TRACKING ALONG THE WARM

FRONT. ONE OR TWO LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT THE

QUESTION...WITH THE RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

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true about the soup potential. but from what i'm seeing in the bufkit extrapolations, even if we get stuck in the soup, we have enough elevated energy for at least a good hail/wind event. so tornadoes, i'll wait until the morning to be sure. but maybe a mod risk might be warranted anyway just because of the possible extent of the wind/hail damage.

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Snippet from the AFD from Amarillo.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THINK GIANT HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SUPERCELL

THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD POTENTIALLY BE UP TO GRAPEFRUIT

SIZE DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES UP

TO 3000 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES UP TO 55 KT...AND HAIL GROWTH CAPE

VALUES UP TO 1100 J/KG.

I agree the environment around Childress TX looks very supportive of supercell development. On the SPC Mesoanalysis 6-hour forecast (not analysis), the effective layer STP is 6. This is east of Lubbock, west of Childress. Supercell parameter is 20 in that section.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0208 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301908Z - 302045Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL...SHOULD

INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST

TX...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS

FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF

SOUTHWEST TX IN VICINITY OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS OF 1845Z. TSTMS

SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW

HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL/AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE

FARTHER NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH

ORIENTED DRYLINE. STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN

CONJUNCTION WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE

DESTABILIZATION/QUICKLY ERODING CINH THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE REGION

/AROUND 30 KT/ PER REGIONAL PROFILERS...BUT THE DEGREE OF

DESTABILIZATION AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS

SOUTHWESTERN TX SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

LARGE HAIL. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 04/30/2012

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

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true about the soup potential. but from what i'm seeing in the bufkit extrapolations, even if we get stuck in the soup, we have enough elevated energy for at least a good hail/wind event. so tornadoes, i'll wait until the morning to be sure. but maybe a mod risk might be warranted anyway just because of the possible extent of the wind/hail damage.

May 25, 2008 anyone? Similar setup and that one missed me by 4 miles. Little nervous about tomorrow. Oh well it is what it is.

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Today is looking good off the Caprock. Not much to add to Panhandle magic. Tomorrow, Tuesday, I'd focus on whatever outflow boundary can drop through central Minnesota after morning rain. Northern Iowa may also be in play with backed low level flow. I know that is assuming a lot. My point is just that the OFB intersection with the DL will be better than down the DL in this situation. We're not in Kansas anymore. Farther south into Nebraska veering and/or capping could be an issue. Could. It may still go. On the other side, believe northern Minnesota stays stable in stratoform rain. Farther northwest, southern Manitoba might be some low-top sups close to the surface low. That is a separate target area in my mind. My primary would be depart MSP. Unfortunately I'm just a bit out of range for that and air fare is atrocious.

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