JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Tornado Warning west of Ponca City now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Second Lubbock storm is looking downright ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 NW Of Bartlesville. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1013 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT * AT 1010 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF DEWEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEWEY AND COPAN. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Pawhuska cell is certainly reintensifying after splitting off of the main line. Edit: Intense rotation now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The Pawhuska storm is better organized now over Bartlesville. Could be getting close to a warning upgrade again. OK, they got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Dewey may be about to get hammered. Population greater than 3K... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 TOR warning for Bartlesville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206... VALID 300304Z - 300430Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206...CONTINUES. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WWS 204 AND 206. PORTIONS WW 204 MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SVR THREAT THAT CONTINUES PAST ORIGINAL 4Z EXPIRATION. CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS W-S OF LBB IN WW 204 INCLUDES APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR REPORTS OF HAIL AT LEAST 2.75 INCHES DIAMETER OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND ANOTHER SVR TSTM BEHIND GUST FRONT OF SUPERCELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS SVR DOWNDRAFTS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH...TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN SHORT TERM BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED/SELY/30-35 KT BRANCH OF LLJ. RELATED LENGTHENING/CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SERVE TWO PURPOSES... 1. PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATION IN RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND 2. REDUCE NEGATIVE SRH FOR LEFT-MOVERS...SUCH AS ONE THAT CONTAINED EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC COUPLET FROM W OF PVW NEWD ALMOST TO PALO DURO CANYON. FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT OF SRN PORTION OF KS/NRN PANHANDLES MCS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN PORTIONS WW 206. AFOREMENTIONED LEFT-MOVER...AND ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL PANHANDLE...MAY MERGE AND MOVE INTO WRN OK OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS WELL...OFFERING RISK OF SVR HAIL/GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Tomorrow could get interesting across the Panhandles/NW TX into perhaps W OK if boundaries from tonight's activity don't mix out. Given the extent and intensity of the current convection, I have a feeling remnant boundaries will still be in place by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Ponca City is in a tornado warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Those Lubbock cells still must have some monster hail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Is that a third cell developing behind those two monster cells below Lubbock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0626.html EPISODIC MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATIONS WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL LOCALLY IN ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Those Lubbock cells still must have some monster hail... The returns have been pretty damn impressive. Huge hail cores on them, especially thee adding cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Tomorrow could get interesting across the Panhandles/NW TX into perhaps W OK if boundaries from tonight's activity don't mix out. Given the extent and intensity of the current convection, I have a feeling remnant boundaries will still be in place by late afternoon. Pretty impressive sounding there, along with low-enough LCL heights for tornadic potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Almost looked like a BWER for a second near Tahoka, Tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW. Going to be that way across a lot of the area with these storms training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Can't imagine this from the 00z NAM will dampen MPX's next discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 4 KM NAM suggests a fairly significant severe weather event in Northwest Texas tomorrow, all the way from Claredon, TX southeast to the northwest parts of D/FW by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This training 60-70 MPH wind gust thunderstorm thing is for the birds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 There is definite rotation with the cell approaching Littlefield, TX. Anyway, we all remember what happened last time we had leftover boundaries in N Texas. (April 3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Can't imagine this from the 00z NAM will dampen MPX's next discussion... Andy, I saw that, GFS seems a little less robust for MSP, but seems to like the RST area a bit better, when it comes to the STP parameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 New day two outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 There will def be boundaries around tomorrow. Seeing a lot of them on radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 New day two outlook Discussion, FYI the NAM also paints the Rochester area as a potential hotspot: DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING AND WILL BECOME CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME TUESDAY. UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW AS OF EARLY MONDAY WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES. ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS REGIONS... LEE TROUGHING WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD A BROAD...MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND LOW-MID 60S FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH. ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ADVECT EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST...STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING ALONG AND EAST OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NEB WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS KS. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 There will def be boundaries around tomorrow. Seeing a lot of them on radars. Day 1, gotta say that if a broken line of supercells does form like the outlook suggests, the tornado threat might be a bit higher than implied here, considering LCL heights will lower with time...although I expect some pretty significant hailers for sure (ala Lubbock today). DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN KS AND OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO AND SRN IL EWD INTO WRN PA... ...SYNOPSIS... AN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS STATES...WITH MID 60S F OVER TX AND OK. HERE...NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY WHEN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FEATURE MOVES EWD OUT OF CO AND NM...HELPING TO FOCUS SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE...SWRN KS...AND WRN OK. OTHER EARLY ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION FROM SERN KS/OK INTO MO AND IL WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE. ...SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...MOST LIKELY FROM OVER SERN KS...NERN OK AND INTO SRN MO ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT...AND OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER OK. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WRN OK...AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. MODESTLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL. FARTHER W...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND CIN WILL EASILY BE ERODED BY MID AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...EVOLVING EWD WITH A CONTINUED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH EVENING. SOME HAIL WILL BE VERY LARGE. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE LARGEST SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK. ...OH VALLEY REGION... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SCATTERED STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING. 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS INTO CELLS AND/OR BOWS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS WRN PA BUT WILL END ABRUPTLY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED POINTS E. ...WRN VA AND NC... A PLUME OF 60S DEWPOINTS OFF THE ATLANTIC AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA AND WRN NC. WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EVENING. ..JEWELL/GARNER.. 04/30/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 well, i guess i can say one good thing about the potential mess on tuesday. at least i'm not on call for it. now i just wish i had a friend around here that had a condo or a tall roof with a near 360 degree view of the sky. and fwiw, apparently we have a torcon of 5 attm for most of MN, and it looks like they are betting at TWC for possible storms all the way up to YWG and YQK/YXL. 06 run hinting at even try to take it all the way to YQT/DLH/EAU/MQT/GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I should add that, when I mentioned Tuesday looked "junky", I was referencing Nebraska and our CWA. I am far more interested in the threat across the northern plains. Today is going to be another interesting day across the Panhandle. Looks like a repeat of yesterday, except the mid level flow will be a touch stronger today...although the upper level jet will be a bit weaker. NAM is indicating more pronounced low level backing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW. US 63 was closed for a short while here in Central MO also. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 133 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0128 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 N ASHLAND 38.86N 92.26W 04/30/2012 BOONE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT U.S. HIGHWAY 63 NORTHBOUND NEAR HIGHWAY 163 IS CLOSED BECAUSE OF FLOODING. ALSO CLOSED IS BEARFIELD ROAD NEAR GANS ROAD AND RANGELINE ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY AB. I'd hate to see what Ponca City looks like since some areas there got upwards of 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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