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Severe Weather Thread (April 26 - May 3)


David Reimer

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NW Of Bartlesville.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1013 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1010 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF DEWEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEWEY

AND COPAN.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1004 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206...

VALID 300304Z - 300430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

204...206...CONTINUES.

CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WWS 204 AND 206. PORTIONS WW 204 MAY BE

EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SVR THREAT THAT CONTINUES PAST

ORIGINAL 4Z EXPIRATION.

CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS W-S OF LBB IN WW 204 INCLUDES APPARENT

HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR REPORTS OF HAIL AT

LEAST 2.75 INCHES DIAMETER OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND ANOTHER SVR

TSTM BEHIND GUST FRONT OF SUPERCELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE

CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS SVR DOWNDRAFTS

FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE.

DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH...TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN

SHORT TERM BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND

STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED/SELY/30-35 KT BRANCH OF

LLJ. RELATED LENGTHENING/CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL

SERVE TWO PURPOSES...

1. PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONE

INTENSIFICATION IN RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND

2. REDUCE NEGATIVE SRH FOR LEFT-MOVERS...SUCH AS ONE THAT CONTAINED

EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC COUPLET FROM W OF PVW NEWD

ALMOST TO PALO DURO CANYON.

FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT OF SRN PORTION OF KS/NRN

PANHANDLES MCS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER

NRN PORTIONS WW 206. AFOREMENTIONED LEFT-MOVER...AND ANY ADDITIONAL

CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL PANHANDLE...MAY MERGE AND

MOVE INTO WRN OK OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS WELL...OFFERING RISK OF SVR

HAIL/GUSTS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012

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Tomorrow could get interesting across the Panhandles/NW TX into perhaps W OK if boundaries from tonight's activity don't mix out. Given the extent and intensity of the current convection, I have a feeling remnant boundaries will still be in place by late afternoon.

post-972-0-40866200-1335756568.png

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Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW.

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Tomorrow could get interesting across the Panhandles/NW TX into perhaps W OK if boundaries from tonight's activity don't mix out. Given the extent and intensity of the current convection, I have a feeling remnant boundaries will still be in place by late afternoon.

post-972-0-40866200-1335756568.png

Pretty impressive sounding there, along with low-enough LCL heights for tornadic potential.

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Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW.

Going to be that way across a lot of the area with these storms training.

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New day two outlook

Discussion, FYI the NAM also paints the Rochester area as a potential hotspot:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND

NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEAMPLIFYING AND WILL BECOME

CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME TUESDAY.

UPPER JET AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW

AS OF EARLY MONDAY WILL REACH THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE

NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. A DRYLINE WILL STRETCH FROM

THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. WARM FRONT WILL

LIFT NWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS REGIONS...

LEE TROUGHING WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS

WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS

NWD A BROAD...MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL ADVECT THROUGH ERN PORTIONS OF

THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER 50S TO

NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND

LOW-MID 60S FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH. ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG

INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE

RATES ADVECT EWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND AS THE BOUNDARY

LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500 TO

2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEAR 3000 J/KG OVER THE CNTRL

PLAINS.

AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST...STORMS MAY

DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING ALONG AND EAST OF SEWD

ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NEB WITH MORE

ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS

KS. VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS

INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE

SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO

WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A

CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT.

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There will def be boundaries around tomorrow. Seeing a lot of them on radars.

Day 1, gotta say that if a broken line of supercells does form like the outlook suggests, the tornado threat might be a bit higher than implied here, considering LCL heights will lower with time...although I expect some pretty significant hailers for sure (ala Lubbock today).

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO SRN KS AND

OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN MO AND SRN IL EWD

INTO WRN PA...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE

OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SURFACE

TROUGH AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY.

AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN

PLAINS STATES...WITH MID 60S F OVER TX AND OK. HERE...NUMEROUS

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL

OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY WHEN A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FEATURE MOVES EWD

OUT OF CO AND NM...HELPING TO FOCUS SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE

TX PANHANDLE...SWRN KS...AND WRN OK. OTHER EARLY ACTIVITY WILL

TRANSITION FROM SERN KS/OK INTO MO AND IL WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME

SEVERE.

...SRN PLAINS...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...MOST LIKELY

FROM OVER SERN KS...NERN OK AND INTO SRN MO ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY

BOUNDARY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND

THREAT...AND OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT OVER OK. SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED

ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY MID AFTERNOON OVER WRN OK...AND LARGE HAIL

WOULD BE LIKELY. MODESTLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND HIGH

RH BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

FARTHER W...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND CIN

WILL EASILY BE ERODED BY MID AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS

IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...EVOLVING

EWD WITH A CONTINUED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH EVENING. SOME HAIL

WILL BE VERY LARGE. LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH

THE LARGEST SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE IS

EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK.

...OH VALLEY REGION...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SCATTERED STORMS BY

AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HEATING. 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL HELP

ORGANIZE STORMS INTO CELLS AND/OR BOWS...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS WRN PA BUT WILL

END ABRUPTLY AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED POINTS E.

...WRN VA AND NC...

A PLUME OF 60S DEWPOINTS OFF THE ATLANTIC AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD

RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN

VA AND WRN NC. WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RELATIVELY COOL

PROFILES ALOFT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH LOCALLY

STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE BY EVENING.

..JEWELL/GARNER.. 04/30/2012

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well, i guess i can say one good thing about the potential mess on tuesday. at least i'm not on call for it. now i just wish i had a friend around here that had a condo or a tall roof with a near 360 degree view of the sky.

and fwiw, apparently we have a torcon of 5 attm for most of MN, and it looks like they are betting at TWC for possible storms all the way up to YWG and YQK/YXL. 06 run hinting at even try to take it all the way to YQT/DLH/EAU/MQT/GRB.

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I should add that, when I mentioned Tuesday looked "junky", I was referencing Nebraska and our CWA. I am far more interested in the threat across the northern plains.

Today is going to be another interesting day across the Panhandle. Looks like a repeat of yesterday, except the mid level flow will be a touch stronger today...although the upper level jet will be a bit weaker. NAM is indicating more pronounced low level backing as well.

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Very dangerous flash flooding event taking place across Vernon county in Western Missouri right now. Between 5-6" of rain has fallen already, with about 4" of that taking place in the last hour. Portions of US Highway 54 west of Nevada have water flowing over them. This is a major heavily traveled roadway. Looks like the area may see a brief break over the next half hour or so, but much more rain is poised to move in from the SW.

US 63 was closed for a short while here in Central MO also.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

133 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0128 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 N ASHLAND 38.86N 92.26W

04/30/2012 BOONE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

U.S. HIGHWAY 63 NORTHBOUND NEAR HIGHWAY 163 IS CLOSED

BECAUSE OF FLOODING. ALSO CLOSED IS BEARFIELD ROAD NEAR

GANS ROAD AND RANGELINE ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY AB.

I'd hate to see what Ponca City looks like since some areas there got upwards of 10".

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