Spring Pattern Could Persist Into The Summer

[bluewave]

While it's a little early for a specific summer forecast for the NYC Metro area, the current spring pattern could

persist into the summer. So far this spring has featured a trough near the West Coast and a ridge centered

over the Eastern US. The years that this pattern was dominant in the spring saw a continuation into

the summer. I can't really put out a specific temperature departure for NYC yet since

we know that analogs don't always work out. It's still early in the game and things

can change. But if I had to do an over or under for JJA average departure departure

for NYC, my guess is that it would be another season that averages above normal.

Spring 2012 so far

Spring composite

Spring composite rolled forward to the summer

[earthlight]

Nice post and presentation. Over the past year or so we've seen patterns try and stay locked in for a longer period of time.

But generally, the above normal anomalies have been persisting for a good part of two years. We had a brief period of blocking during the great winter more than a year ago -- but that was it.

When we haven't had blocking, it seems that the ridge in the east has found a way to pop up more often than not. So without any changes to the large scale pattern on this side of the globe, this should persist..and the data seems to support that.

The one thing I start to wonder about as we approach late spring, is how the severe weather season will behave around here. Does the persistence of this pattern suggest we could be in for another generally quiet year? We will see.

[bluewave]

Nice post and presentation. Over the past year or so we've seen patterns try and stay locked in for a longer period of time.

But generally, the above normal anomalies have been persisting for a good part of two years. We had a brief period of blocking during the great winter more than a year ago -- but that was it.

When we haven't had blocking, it seems that the ridge in the east has found a way to pop up more often than not. So without any changes to the large scale pattern on this side of the globe, this should persist..and the data seems to support that.

The one thing I start to wonder about as we approach late spring, is how the severe weather season will behave around here. Does the persistence of this pattern suggest we could be in for another generally quiet year? We will see.

Thanks. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

[easternsnowman]

We may be entering a time where positive anomalies are now the new normal. If this persists through summer I think we should throw out the 1981-2010 averages and just go by the averages from the last 10 or 15 years which accurately reflect our current climate.

[SnoSki14]

We may be entering a time where positive anomalies are now the new normal. If this persists through summer I think we should throw out the 1981-2010 averages and just go by the averages from the last 10 or 15 years which accurately reflect our current climate.

If those positive anomalies are the new normal then we're going into an accelerated warming period that's well beyond most global warming extremists predictions (A very scary thought) A couple years is not enough though, we would need to see these types of anomalies for a few more years before we make that claim. Temperatures could easily try to balance out as well in the years ahead.

[easternsnowman]

If those positive anomalies are the new normal then we're going into an accelerated warming period that's well beyond most global warming extremists predictions (A very scary thought) A couple years is not enough though, we would need to see these types of anomalies for a few more years before we make that claim. Temperatures could easily try to balance out as well in the years ahead.

I hope the temps do balance out soon. While the warming has accelerated the last couple of years it has been steady at least in the east since the late 90's.

[HeatMiser]

Nice post and presentation. Over the past year or so we've seen patterns try and stay locked in for a longer period of time.

But generally, the above normal anomalies have been persisting for a good part of two years. We had a brief period of blocking during the great winter more than a year ago -- but that was it.

When we haven't had blocking, it seems that the ridge in the east has found a way to pop up more often than not. So without any changes to the large scale pattern on this side of the globe, this should persist..and the data seems to support that.

The one thing I start to wonder about as we approach late spring, is how the severe weather season will behave around here. Does the persistence of this pattern suggest we could be in for another generally quiet year? We will see.

I'd have to agree with you on the eastern ridge consistently popping up out of nowwhere. Just look at the end of next week (May 2-4)...all models were heavily confused a week ago--the gfs even had cold--now all are in strong agreement of the ridge.

[JBG]

We may be entering a time where positive anomalies are now the new normal. If this persists through summer I think we should throw out the 1981-2010 averages and just go by the averages from the last 10 or 15 years which accurately reflect our current climate.

If those positive anomalies are the new normal then we're going into an accelerated warming period that's well beyond most global warming extremists predictions (A very scary thought) A couple years is not enough though, we would need to see these types of anomalies for a few more years before we make that claim. Temperatures could easily try to balance out as well in the years ahead.

My view is well-known on this; I think we should go to a 60 year base to eliminate cycle and phase bias.