CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This is not a torch pattern right now. Yes, it was a torch month thanks to the first 20 days, but we've been carving into those insane monthly departures every day in the last week. The only reason why some mins have busted the past few days is because winds have stayed strong to limit decoupling. We may get a few warm days here and there over the next couple of weeks, but I think it averages out to near seasonable. Therefore we are not entering May with a torch pattern. And if anything, it seems like we are disaster prone on the ensembles too. A switch from the warm dry pattern it seems. Thursday Night-Friday may be MCS prone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Wed-Fri all above 70? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 the KFS is up aginst the SCF (scooter...caution flag) model. what a battle to behold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 the KFS is up aginst the SCF (scooter...caution flag) model. what a battle to behold KFS has been known to finally come around the SCF which it seems to be doing from all the ridiculous 75-80 talk all this week. SCF is a dam good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I don't get this torch thing, I would say the past few weeks have been pleasant, far from a torch, maybe we had a couple of warm days but overall great April. It was a great April, top 3 warmest ever in Boston so to say it was not a torch relative to climo is a little off base? Anyways, another great day today. Have a great day everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 i see 70-72 today for SW SNE and low to mid 60's late pm for boston metro west area and burbs.. i wonder if boston stays in mid 50's...i think immediate burbs (somerville) crack over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 KFS has been known to finally come around the SCF which it seems to be doing from all the ridiculous 75-80 talk all this week. SCF is a dam good model. Yeah the SCF is like MOS....not prone to wild swings and not always forecasting extreme weather anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This is not a torch pattern right now. Yes, it was a torch month thanks to the first 20 days, but we've been carving into those insane monthly departures every day in the last week. The only reason why some mins have busted the past few days is because winds have stayed strong to limit decoupling. We may get a few warm days here and there over the next couple of weeks, but I think it averages out to near seasonable. Therefore we are not entering May with a torch pattern. I think you are forgetting that now anything above freezing is a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 It was a great April, top 3 warmest ever in Boston so to say it was not a torch relative to climo is a little off base? Anyways, another great day today. Have a great day everyone. I think he means the past 7-10 days which have featured some cool days. In fact, significant departures in 3 of the 4 stations. UHI helping to torch BOS, but that stands out like a sore thumb compared to everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 In fact, these numbers have been skewed mostly from the 14-21 period. Outside of that, the numbers in terms of warmth are not impressive at all. Look at the data yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 UHI urban heat island (has to be a few wondering) we should set some daily over unders like BDL (69) ORH (59) PVD (63.5) BOS (57) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 KFS has been known to finally come around the SCF which it seems to be doing from all the ridiculous 75-80 talk all this week. SCF is a dam good model. SCF reminds me of the Nogaps...Suppressed usually, never amped until everything else has already caught on, and generally one of the lower skill score models we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 dem are fighting words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 SCF reminds me of the Nogaps...Suppressed usually, never amped until everything else has already caught on, and generally one of the lower skill score models we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 SCF always knows when to hold 'em....knows when to fold 'em. No need to go BTW with warmth right now. Hold 'em until the right hand is dealt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The cssm wants someone to shoot it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I could see a narrow area of heavier rainfall over CT tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 In fact, these numbers have been skewed mostly from the 14-21 period. Outside of that, the numbers in terms of warmth are not impressive at all. Look at the data yourself. Exactly. That period was about +15 up my way, but the rest of the month was at or a bit below average. The month will come in at nearly +3 for MBY, continuing the above-avg string, but well short of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I could see a narrow area of heavier rainfall over CT tomorrow. Think NYC south gets most..maybe Fairfield cty gets in on that..Rest of us less than .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 i'm currently shocked that boston had a top 2 warm...april...i didn't really realize it was that above normal. i mean here in wakefield,ma the last few days were soldily below. NYC finished just + 2 for month....wonder what boston suburbs were ....+4 or so? I suspect the difference may be the coastal component. BOS has averaged off-shore much of the time, compared to what is more typical being at least a drift and a late season coastal or two throwing winds onshore, as well. This has been predominantly at NW flow April, which puts a lot of the coastal plain at the advantage relative to air mass. That said ... there has been on-shore cooling at times. Much of the big heat days of the mid month (*88 at ORH one afternoon!), I don't think were "as" potent at Logan because they did have some trouble with winds bending onshore during that interval. By and large, however, the month hasn't seen a lot of the cold heat sink invasion more typical of the coastal locales at this time of year. Logan is a marine/land-interface micro-climate that really shouldn't be used for the vast majority of SNE. I think it would be far more telling if we took the Orange-Fitchburg-Beford-ORH triangulum mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 yes that area is definitely more representitive of the actual overall wx pattern......instead of the potential micro climate at BOS but very well said about the lack of marine intrusion at BOS......that played a very large part ......just seems like a back handed way for "mother nature to screw us into more obscene abnormal + departures" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Exactly. That period was about +15 up my way, but the rest of the month was at or a bit below average. The month will come in at nearly +3 for MBY, continuing the above-avg string, but well short of 2010. Don't water down the delusional with facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Think NYC south gets most..maybe Fairfield cty gets in on that..Rest of us less than .25 Blizz you saying ORH-BOS corridor less than .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Blizz you saying ORH-BOS corridor less than .25 4 main climo sites in SNE with .25 or less tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Logan is a marine/land-interface micro-climate that really shouldn't be used for the vast majority of SNE. I think it would be far more telling if we took the Orange-Fitchburg-Beford-ORH triangulum mean. Uh oh...don't tell Weathafella, just yesterday I think he said BOS was the biggest, most important climate spot in New England. I agree though, judging climate based on an airstrip out over the ocean may not be the best option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 4 main climo sites in SNE with .25 or less tomorrow. I think BDL and PVD has a shot of beating that for sure. BOS has best shot of getting .25 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Uh oh...don't tell Weathafella, just yesterday I think he said BOS was the biggest, most important climate spot in New England. I agree though, judging climate based on an airstrip out over the ocean may not be the best option. I live about 6 miles from the airport, and have had 25 degree differences in temps. Logan sucks as a representative for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Uh oh...don't tell Weathafella, just yesterday I think he said BOS was the biggest, most important climate spot in New England. I agree though, judging climate based on an airstrip out over the ocean may not be the best option. I was wrong about Logan's warm departures at mid month, however... I just checked and they were 77, 87, and 81 those three days, which is comparable to what took place in the interior. Anyway, the wind trajectories were as I suspected though...and they averaged NW. I suspect if the ocean was more invasive per usual they would have been less positive on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 I live about 6 miles from the airport, and have had 25 degree differences in temps. Logan sucks as a representative for the area. Yeah it would be like BTVs obs coming from the Colchester Reef station jutting out into Lake Champlain....where daytime temps completely depend on wind direction, and nighttime temps are always warm. I'm sure if BOS was even 3 miles inland it would be a much better sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Yeah it would be like BTVs obs coming from the Colchester Reef station jutting out into Lake Champlain....where daytime temps completely depend on wind direction, and nighttime temps are always warm. I'm sure if BOS was even 3 miles inland it would be a much better sample. It's not so bad in the winter except for maybe the UHI aspect of it, but it really shows in the warmer seasons. Those local seabreezes kill high temps, yet back bay could be 20 degrees warmer. It's too bad they can't put a station up in the commons. That would be pretty cool, but would never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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