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Unsettled cool weather ends April, what does May bring


Ginx snewx

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Thursday is questionable with se winds and possible clouds. There are more to models than thicknesses you know. Friday I'm hoping is nice since I have off. What happened to 75+ every day? Still on with the bet?

Thursday-Saturday certainly has potential to be upper 70's to mid 80's, however, we could really get screwed over with cloud cover and perhaps showers. Given that setup we could get tons of cloud debris from the upper mid-west/Ohio Valley region.

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Thursday-Saturday certainly has potential to be upper 70's to mid 80's, however, we could really get screwed over with cloud cover and perhaps showers. Given that setup we could get tons of cloud debris from the upper mid-west/Ohio Valley region.

Euro verbatim has 1 warm day and that's Friday. By warm I mean above normal and into the 70s. 60s are no longer warmer than avg.
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I'm interested in the derived NAO teleconnectors from the Euro cluster. The GFS ensemble mean is tightly clustered at both the CDC and CPC around a -2 to -2.5SD NAO, and one that is heavily westerly biased in the operational GFS. But not so much so in the Euro operational at all in the former sense, which is why I am interested in the mean of that Euro ensembles. The freebies out of the corporate web page make it appear that the mean of the ECM cluster is at odds somewhat with the GFS mean, but I am less than certain of that...

The GFS' operational idea of retrograding heights lower (from the NE) across next weekend, is thus significantly anchored by the premise of it's own ensemble mean. And, should said prevail, count on a rather nasty week tucked into the first 2 or so of May. Who knows if this would mean a series of raw CAA events that merely retard gardening interests for and additional 10 days, or perhaps a cold sort of west Atlantic rattling cut-off low that brings general turd conditions (May 2005). Either would be acceptable given to these observed teleconnectors. The PNA is dropping correlative coherence during may; it is rising during the same time of the GFS' derived tightly clustered negative period - that would last some 10 days in total, bottoming out about a week from now.

I see the mild to warm recovery of this week (notwithstanding nuanced interruptions by sagging BD's and/or rains interfering) as not 'quite' yet being the final step that brings us into the 'truer' seasonal recovery. I use the last of the -850s in the means as my guide for that sort of thing. If it were not for this recent emerged -NAO signal, which is quite strong in the GFS, I might be inclined to see things otherwise. In fact, I was thinking that might be the cast earlier last week, but eh... heh.

Caveat: It's been a bad year 8 months for the teleconnectors. I was really pretty impressed with that period from late January through early February with -AO/+PNA/Phase 8 MJO, and the U.S. was even climatology warmer than January if anything. That was more than a bit unusual. I sure goes to show of the importance in qualifying each one. The -AO dumped in Eurasia; the neutral NAO did no favors; the PNA, being such a large domain, was positive but the eastern 1/3 of it (the N/A sector) was more neutral; and the MJO was out of phase with the ENSO, so the wave's convection was damped - no convection = no forcing = no pattern presentation. All these muted the longer term correlation off that convergence of factors. What all this boils down to is that a -NAO now would need to buck a mind-boggling persistence to "not mean what it should" - that's what this last 8 months of climate era should be called: "The opposite happens" era.

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AWT for interior CT

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance for showers in the evening. Low: 52. High: 75 inland, 70 shore.

Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer, a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 78 inland, 72 shore.

Friday: Partly sunny and warm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 82 inland, 79 shore.

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Euro verbatim has 1 warm day and that's Friday. By warm I mean above normal and into the 70s. 60s are no longer warmer than avg.

I definitely think Friday will be the warmest of the 3 days...Thursday looks like we will deal with clouds and Saturday possibly the same...there looks to be lots of increasing llvl moisture ahead of that s/w so we will probably see lots of clouds and perhaps showers.

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AWT for interior CT

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance for showers in the evening. Low: 52. High: 75 inland, 70 shore.

Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer, a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 78 inland, 72 shore.

Friday: Partly sunny and warm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 82 inland, 79 shore.

Who wrote that?

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While you all discuss the coming "torch" of 70 degrees, another cold night is coming up across the region.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION

WILL LIKELY BE KILLED OR DAMAGED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* OTHER...THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEGUN FOR

THE REST OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT TEMPERATURES

IN THE 20S AND TEENS OVERNIGHT WILL STILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT

TENDER VEGETATION IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

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Hey PF you posted a pic earlier down by your good and trees were leafing out. Looks so much different even in the lower spots there as compared to town?

Not sure I follow... low spots of the mountain vs. down in town?

At 1,500ft at the base of the mountain but the real only "leaf out" is on the brushy stuff... I think its hobblebush or something like that.

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Not sure I follow... low spots of the mountain vs. down in town?

You mean the picture of greens with snow? This is at 1,500ft base of the mountain but the real only "leaf out" is on the brushy stuff... I think its hobblebush or something like that.

IMG_5228_edited-1.jpg

It was in the NNE or ski thread from the other day. You had a shot of one of the hillsides that was whitened at the top from snow. The trees had that green tinge to them and I don't see that in the pic above. On my phone so it's tough to search for that pic.

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It was in the NNE or ski thread from the other day. You had a shot of one of the hillsides that was whitened at the top from snow. The trees had that green tinge to them and I don't see that in the pic above. On my phone so it's tough to search for that pic.

Ahh yeah maybe this one? Either way, down in the 700-1,500ft range (inhabited elevations in Stowe) things are moving pretty quickly... we are at about 50% leaf out. Pretty much still bare though from 1,500ft on up.

I think a lot of it has to do with the lighting and if you can pick up the green tint.

IMG_5053_edited-1.jpg

This is looking at the same hillside and area. Gives a good indication of the state of the trees. From left to right, the elevations of those hills (they are what I use a lot to judge snow levels) are 2,300ft, 2,800ft, and 3,500ft.

IMG_5220_edited-1.jpg

I should edit to say that these condos are halfway between the base of the ski resort and the village center. They aren't as high up as you might think at 900-1,000ft elevation.

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Ahh yeah maybe this one? Either way, down in the 700-1,500ft range (inhabited elevations in Stowe) things are moving pretty quickly... we are at about 50% leaf out. Pretty much still bare though from 1,500ft on up.

I think a lot of it has to do with the lighting and if you can pick up the green tint.

This is looking at the same hillside and area. Gives a good indication of the state of the trees. From left to right, the elevations of those hills (they are what I use a lot to judge snow levels) are 2,300ft, 2,800ft, and 3,500ft.

I should edit to say that these condos are halfway between the base of the ski resort and the village center. They aren't as high up as you might think at 900-1,000ft elevation.

those are condos?

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AWT for interior CT

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance for showers in the evening. Low: 52. High: 75 inland, 70 shore.

Thursday: Partly sunny and warmer, a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 78 inland, 72 shore.

Friday: Partly sunny and warm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low: 55. High: 82 inland, 79 shore.

where is that DC?

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