April 25th Severe Potential

[Superstorm93]

Nice TBSS from DVN

[Thundersnow12]

[Sidewinder]

Boom.

Here in central Indiana there has been some consolidating of storms southeast of the the Rushville area. VIL strength increasing and AE is indicating .97" now.

Development west looks lackluster. If this is it, the original SPC outlook from two days ago would have been the one to verify. But it is typical for the midwest to under-perform.

[Thundersnow12]

Nice little environment for those storms in western IL. 0-6km shear of 40-50kts, MUCAPE around 3000 j/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates, and a great veering profile on the ILX VAD.

[Sidewinder]

KIND finally pulled the warning trigger on the cluster of crap near Ohio.

Might be worth a couple good lightning shots if we can get something else to fire.

[Buckeye05]

Cincinnati looks like it's about to get hit with a decent storm, and maybe a little hail.

[SouthernNJ]

These SVS statements are very interesting from ILN:

AT 1108 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD

WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...BUT WAS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE

HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

The funny thing is it looked as though the storm had strengthened at

1108 compared to the previous scan.

[Buckeye05]

New cell really ramping up near Carlinville. Northern storm showing some rotation too.

[IMADreamer]

Well guys little update from here in Pittsfield. I thought the storm was going slide just to the east but we got clipped. 3/4 inch hail and about six drops of rain. This storm is one of the most prolific lightning producers I've ever seen. I took a ton of pictures from my front porch but couldn't venture too far from the house unfortunately.

[Chicago Storm]

0805 PM TORNADO 6 WSW KAHOKA 40.39N 91.82W

04/25/2012 CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN WEST OF KAHOKA...DAMAGING GRAIN

BINS...BARNS...AND OTHER OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO MOVED

SOUTHEAST FOR ABOUT 1 MILE AND WAS ON THE GROUND FOR AN

ESTIMATED 5 MINUTES. THE TORNADO DAMAGE HAS RECEIVED A

PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF1.

[OceanStWx]

0805 PM TORNADO 6 WSW KAHOKA 40.39N 91.82W

04/25/2012 CLARK MO TRAINED SPOTTER

A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN WEST OF KAHOKA...DAMAGING GRAIN

BINS...BARNS...AND OTHER OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO MOVED

SOUTHEAST FOR ABOUT 1 MILE AND WAS ON THE GROUND FOR AN

ESTIMATED 5 MINUTES. THE TORNADO DAMAGE HAS RECEIVED A

PRELIMINARY RATING OF EF1.

Unfortunate missed event. That was in a tough area (northeast MO radar hole) and was well removed from the warm front. As the event was happening there was no communication to the WFO that anything was on the ground. It was until several hours later that there was any talk of tornado damage. A good reason why I always tried to stress that you shouldn't assume the WFO knows what is occurring on the ground when I was giving spotter talks.

As an aside, similar to what Beau had mentioned about PAH, there was no survey done. The rating was based on pictures and damage reports alone. Not for lack of desire either. Shame...

[IWXwx]

Unfortunate missed event. That was in a tough area (northeast MO radar hole) and was well removed from the warm front. As the event was happening there was no communication to the WFO that anything was on the ground. It was until several hours later that there was any talk of tornado damage. A good reason why I always tried to stress that you shouldn't assume the WFO knows what is occurring on the ground when I was giving spotter talks.

As an aside, similar to what Beau had mentioned about PAH, there was no survey done. The rating was based on pictures and damage reports alone. Not for lack of desire either. Shame...

I guess I missed what Beau said about Paducah. What the Heck?! Are we talking budget cuts or policy changes?

[OceanStWx]

I guess I missed what Beau said about Paducah. What the Heck?! Are we talking budget cuts or policy changes?

Budget issues, offices are being told we don't have the resources to send people to do the "minor" surveys. I assume this will include straight line wind and QLCS type storms, meaning we'll likely end up missing some tornadoes that are hidden amidst more widespread wind damage. Not only that but, as some of our members have mentioned, research suggests that most tornadoes are in fact stronger than EF0/EF1. A lack of detailed damage surveys are not going to help verify the field radar observations.

For instance, the Kahoka storm was about 5 to 6 hours round trip from DVN before you even factor in the time for surveying the damage. So at a minimum you're looking at an hour or two OT, and it's pressure from above saying that WFOs need to minimize OT. That isn't going to come from severe weather operations, so it has to come from somewhere.

I think it's silly for a number of reasons. It's obviously a very important service for both community and science. In this case of a missed event, sometimes it's nice to just show your face, answer questions about why it was missed, make the community feel comfortable that you are invested and care about the situation. It's one of the few opportunities that NWS employees get to interact with the public outside of the office, that can go a long way sometimes. Not only that but DVN almost got shut out of tornadoes last year. We really have no way to predict how many each WFO will end up surveying by season's end. For all we know, this may have been DVN's only chance to do a survey this year.

[Justin]

Unfortunate missed event. That was in a tough area (northeast MO radar hole) and was well removed from the warm front. As the event was happening there was no communication to the WFO that anything was on the ground. It was until several hours later that there was any talk of tornado damage. A good reason why I always tried to stress that you shouldn't assume the WFO knows what is occurring on the ground when I was giving spotter talks.

As an aside, similar to what Beau had mentioned about PAH, there was no survey done. The rating was based on pictures and damage reports alone. Not for lack of desire either. Shame...

This was the storm on radar that had the most impressive representation to it that I was commenting on. I thought it had some potential and it had an appendage feature to it when it was in the vicinity of Kahoka, Mo. and had me wondering. Unfortunately I couldn't find a good couplet signature though, because, as you stated, the doughnut hole in radar coverage down there. I think the NWS really needs to look at the possibility of placing a short range doppler down around Kirksville, but that opens a can of worms for all the other places that have weak coverage or a small gap.

And the other issue here is there was no communication from Ham radio operators, law enforcement, or the public of a tornado. Without any of that and the poor radar coverage its kind of hard to know anything is going on. I cannot really fault the NWS for no warning here, flying blind puts those folks in a real bind. Its also a shame the budgetary constraints are going to limit damage surveys too... but the government wants things tightened up so its no surprise.

[Hoosier]

Budget issues, offices are being told we don't have the resources to send people to do the "minor" surveys. I assume this will include straight line wind and QLCS type storms, meaning we'll likely end up missing some tornadoes that are hidden amidst more widespread wind damage. Not only that but, as some of our members have mentioned, research suggests that most tornadoes are in fact stronger than EF0/EF1. A lack of detailed damage surveys are not going to help verify the field radar observations.

For instance, the Kahoka storm was about 5 to 6 hours round trip from DVN before you even factor in the time for surveying the damage. So at a minimum you're looking at an hour or two OT, and it's pressure from above saying that WFOs need to minimize OT. That isn't going to come from severe weather operations, so it has to come from somewhere.

I think it's silly for a number of reasons. It's obviously a very important service for both community and science. In this case of a missed event, sometimes it's nice to just show your face, answer questions about why it was missed, make the community feel comfortable that you are invested and care about the situation. It's one of the few opportunities that NWS employees get to interact with the public outside of the office, that can go a long way sometimes. Not only that but DVN almost got shut out of tornadoes last year. We really have no way to predict how many each WFO will end up surveying by season's end. For all we know, this may have been DVN's only chance to do a survey this year.

Wow, that is disappointing to hear.

[OceanStWx]

This was the storm on radar that had the most impressive representation to it that I was commenting on. I thought it had some potential and it had an appendage feature to it when it was in the vicinity of Kahoka, Mo. and had me wondering. Unfortunately I couldn't find a good couplet signature though, because, as you stated, the doughnut hole in radar coverage down there. I think the NWS really needs to look at the possibility of placing a short range doppler down around Kirksville, but that opens a can of worms for all the other places that have weak coverage or a small gap.

And the other issue here is there was no communication from Ham radio operators, law enforcement, or the public of a tornado. Without any of that and the poor radar coverage its kind of hard to know anything is going on. I cannot really fault the NWS for no warning here, flying blind puts those folks in a real bind. Its also a shame the budgetary constraints are going to limit damage surveys too... but the government wants things tightened up so its no surprise.

Well a can essentially guarantee with the budget issues there won't be any new radars going in anytime soon. I'm just glad it looks like we'll get all the dual-pol upgrades done.

Well the warning was drawn up and ready to go from what I heard, but the 0.5 degree is scanning at around 10kft at that range and without some kind of ground truth as to the base and rotation it's really hard to pull the trigger without a circulation jumping off the screen. In a more volatile situation or along a well formed boundary those are much easier to issue a TOR on and be confident that you're not false alarming. In this case, much more unsure.

[OceanStWx]

Wow, that is disappointing to hear.

It really is, and probably a situation where if I was still working in Central Region I'd be looking for loopholes or even trying to go out on my own time.

[IWXwx]

Well a can essentially guarantee with the budget issues there won't be any new radars going in anytime soon. I'm just glad it looks like we'll get all the dual-pol upgrades done.

Well the warning was drawn up and ready to go from what I heard, but the 0.5 degree is scanning at around 10kft at that range and without some kind of ground truth as to the base and rotation it's really hard to pull the trigger without a circulation jumping off the screen. In a more volatile situation or along a well formed boundary those are much easier to issue a TOR on and be confident that you're not false alarming. In this case, much more unsure.

Thanks for the response. It really is a shame that the powers-to-be are resisting the funding of scientific research, while billions of our tax dollars are wasted every year by the government in other areas.

As an aside, we had a similar situation locally last year that I was involved in. We had an approaching storm with a radar signature that was very much like the Kahoka storm, with an appendage that was going to pass about 8 miles south of my house. I decided that I better have a look. After driving through the hail core, I witnessed strong rotation and it quickly dropped a short-lived F-0. As soon as i reported it, the warning was issued.

I found later that IWX had the warning ready. They had a better look at it than Kahoka, with a less than 3000 ft slice at 0.5, but were waiting on ground truth of rotation. They came down the next day and confirmed and performed some PR while they were here.

That's the way it's supposed to work.