JoMo Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Here's the HRW(NMM) from GREarth at 01z tomorrow. Pretty quickly congeals into an MCS according to this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Are you chasing tomorrow? I'm supposed to be helping out with a landscaping project after work the next few days, but I may have to try to weasel my way out of it tomorrow. Hate to do that, but if it looks good tomorrow afternoon I may have to do it and pay for it this weekend lol. This setup definitely has some promise to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Here's the HRW(NMM) from GREarth at 01z tomorrow. Pretty quickly congeals into an MCS according to this model. The upper flow is vectors align perfectly with the warm front, seems like the window of opportunity for discrete activity will not last long. Most of the hi-res guidance hints at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 i am. where does initiation occur and what time on the euro? i don't have access to it.. Go here and click the "model data" box. The ECMWF is free here. Thank Jeff Masters. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Go here and click the "model data" box. The ECMWF is free here. Thank Jeff Masters. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap oh thanks, appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 If I were chasing tomorrow I wouldn't be caught west of the Mississippi River, storms should initiate there, but I don't think they will go severe until they cross the river. Trying to cross the river would be a pain in the you no what. Having said that my best guess if peeps go out chasing, they will be chasing ice, wind profiles look chaotic so we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 good hunting for those that go out tomorrow., Hope your successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 I'll go with initiation point/possible chase point of Bushnell, Illinois. Possible early supercell development point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 I may try and get out today if I can get some things done early enough here that need to be taken care of. Looks like we should have a strong potential to see some supercell activity early on in the event- which is when I would expect the higher tornado threat- and that threat may not be much removed from the Quad City metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 1630 OTLK really dampened a lot of enthusiasm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 1630 OTLK really dampened a lot of enthusiasm... Not surprising given capping and moisture concerns. Most models are going to be way off on DP values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 1630 OTLK really dampened a lot of enthusiasm... I never had any enthusiasm for today to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 I never had any enthusiasm for today to begin with. Yeah, you could see that this setup had some issues. Still hoping for some decent activity even if elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Ominous looking line on the NMM showing up in So. IL. Straight line wind threat? Hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 It was fun watching all the numerical guidance fook this event up even the day before. I was wondering about the moisture return and high dews the models were depicting, but I still thought the warm front would lift farther N. It certainly was a highly challenging synoptic flow pattern for the models to handle with the presence of that non-distinct shallow wave and the odd upper jet pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Cap has broken across central IL... Severe T-storm over Lincoln: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ILC039-107-252200- /O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0044.120425T2113Z-120425T2200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 413 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT. * AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LINCOLN...ATLANTA...MOUNT PULASKI...BEASON...CHESTNUT... WAYNESVILLE...LATHAM...LAWNDALE...MIDLAND CITY AND HALLSVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Hail and wind damage report... nothing big though. ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0410 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E NEW HOLLAND 40.18N 89.56W 04/25/2012 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR DAMAGE TO A SHED. PIECES BLOWN ACROSS IL ROUTE 10. 0420 PM HAIL LINCOLN 40.15N 89.37W 04/25/2012 M0.88 INCH LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Storms intensifying in Indiana now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Strong storm on the east side of Indy bears watching! INZ047-048-056-057-260015- HANCOCK-MARION-RUSH-SHELBY- 730 PM EDT WED APR 25 2012 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR HANCOCK...NORTHEASTERN MARION... RUSH AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT... AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWRENCE...OR 11 MILES EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... GREENFIELD... RUSHVILLE... SPRING LAKE... NEW PALESTINE... MORRISTOWN... CARTHAGE... ARLINGTON... MANILLA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Had some brief pea-sized hail SE of LAF. About a tenth of rain in the gauge so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Strong and severe storms going in Southeast Iowa, South of the warm front so those may very well be surface based... These are the ones I'm watching with some interest right now to see if they hold it together or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 There is also a storm relative velocity couplet on the NW back edge of that storm in Southeast Iowa too, Southeast of Ottumwa. Might bear some watching... Edit: and just as I say that the couplet that looked good from the Des Moines Doppler has loosened up quite a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Still something to watch as that cell moves se into somewhat more favorable parameters even with CINH. RUC initially showed this to be primarily a nighttime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 And we now have our svr t storm watch for ne Mo and west central IL till 3 am local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 almost looks like the one storm has grown and now splitting into two storms on radar. The Western most one still looks very nasty on radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 gorgeous overshooting top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Amazing shot Thunder, just beautiful!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 815 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CLARK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT. * AT 813 PM CDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR KAHOKA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WAYLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED VERY LARGE HAIL...AND IT REMAINS A THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 Secondary cell forming in the Leonard, MO area. Impressive storms, was ready to call bust just before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 26, 2012 Share Posted April 26, 2012 The storm does have a decent meso, which is certainly supportive of the very large hail that keeps falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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