Chicago Storm Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Obviously there's still model disagreement and it's too early to go into great detail three days out, but it does look like there's the potential for some sort of NW flow severe event on Wednesday/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I can't recall many NW flow severe events in April (at least in recent years). That being said, it does look like there will be some severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The CAPE on the GFS in northeast Kansas/Northwest Missouri Wednesday evening is about the highest I have seen on the GFS this year that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 This one certainly does have potential, huge amounts of instability in KS/IA. SB CAPE >3000 J/kg with a front moving Southward. I would be watching NE MO and the Southern half of IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It certainly does look interesting but am I right in saying mainly a hail threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Will have to watch this. Some nicely curved forecast hodos over far eastern Iowa/western Illinois on 12z NAM. 50+kts NW flow at H5, nice. The best chance for a tornado or two would probably be on the eastern edge of the CAPE/theta-e ridge. Wind profiles better there, and also less of a temp/dew differential as well. 4km WRF develops some nice activity over western Illinois at 60hrs. This forms where it depicts a second/southern low center, and makes for sort of a triple point setup. This will probably change a few times before we get to the event, but it's an interesting possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 5% area for both days 2 and 3, but I could see Wednesday getting upgraded at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 5% area for both days 2 and 3, but I could see Wednesday getting upgraded at least. Agree, they are lowballing Wednesday at this point. I can certainly see a potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 18z NAM forecast for late Wed (21z) near the QC. This is on the eastern edge of the best instability. NAM is likely overdoing the 65+ dews, but instability would still be impressive even with slightly lower moisture. If we can get a surface based storm in this environment it should do pretty well. The WF and or differential heating boundary that sets up NW/SE would be my favorite target. Lower LCLS and the better wind profiles reside in this area. All speculation at this point. Hopefully the models continue to show this type of scenario as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Pretty beefy soundings showing up in the OH Valley area of Western KY by 00z Wednesday evening, especially around Owensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Could get very interesting in south Illinois/southwest Indiana/western Kentucky tomorrow night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Could get very interesting in south Illinois/southwest Indiana/western Kentucky tomorrow night... I don't know whether anything will be surface based at that time but it's an impressive environment if anything is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Maybe it's just me but I'm seeing quite a bit of capping for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 That is what I was noticing Hoosier on the 12z NAM soundings this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Maybe it's just me but I'm seeing quite a bit of capping for tomorrow. Same here. Looks like the only chance for tornadoes would be if the LLJ assists in the evening. Could have some nice hailers (golf ball size-ish) during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR SEVERELY RETARDED DURING THE PERIOD AS WLY FLOW LIMITS DEEPER UPDRAFTS. I really dislike severely retarded storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Definitely looks like thunderstorms tomorrow and into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Still concerned about capping/amount of surface based activity, but SREF showing respectable tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Certainly some explosive soundings showing up in East Central/SE IL and adjacent areas of IN (around the Wabash River) tomorrow evening if anything can root itself in the boundary layer, although that is a rather large "if" at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE OR SEVERELY RETARDED DURING THE PERIOD AS WLY FLOW LIMITS DEEPER UPDRAFTS. I really dislike severely retarded storms That's not very politically correct. You should like all storms equally. I will be very happy to get some stratiform up in this area is the late evening. Good sleeping weather to crack open the window and fall asleep to the sound of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Yet to see any SPC discussion mentioning tornadoes, so don't know how much I trust those Sigtor values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Well, unfortunately that is at 00z when the surface inversion will begin to restrengthen. If anything can get going before then in this area, then look out. I have a feeling that won't be much sb action tomorrow in the warm sector, however, i am hopeful that there will be cause it's local. So we'll be chasing if there's any chance which there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 By Wednesday at 7pm the 12z Euro is hinting at breaking the cap in far SE IA, with decent 700 and 850 mb Vertical Velocities but not much at 925. After that time as the system drops to the se VV's get really strong from 925-700mb in southern IL and Indiana, that leads me to think that these storms could very well be surfaced based. This seem to lend some credence to what the SREF is showing. Sorry haven't looked at the wind field yet, this was just a quick glance when I got home form work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 storm motions would be favorable for something to latch onto the warm front where the hodographs are pretty nice. 0z NAM breaking out precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 storm motions would be favorable for something to latch onto the warm front where the hodographs are pretty nice. 0z NAM breaking out precip as well. As is the GFS. I am however concerned about the lack of winds above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2012 Author Share Posted April 25, 2012 storm motions would be favorable for something to latch onto the warm front where the hodographs are pretty nice. 0z NAM breaking out precip as well. Between IKK and LAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Many of the models do show precip breaking out over Illinois after 21z. If the action can manage to become rooted in the BL then a tornado risk certainly looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 From Earls site. This is I believe is the old STP commonly referred to as the fixed layer STP I think. and this what I think is commonly referred to as the effective layer STP, although I'm not 100% sure about that. Could the SPC boys and gals go to 30% ???? Just a question, but I think it could be close, they may stick with the 15% chance and ramp it up with the early morning update...the pro mets here what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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