Potential late season snow event for western NY and PA

[Logan11]

Obs at 2000 ft 35 and rain in Jefferson...northwest Catskills. So I think you got to be in central NY for any flakes, or way up north where SLK has snow and 33. Also BGM at 1600' just rain at 10 PM.

^{0z nam draws a nice sub 0c 850 circle over the catskills.....looks like fun things could be happening there tonite 2k and up}

[lakeeffectkid383]

Still looks good for BUF

[Jim Marusak]

I'm at the border betweeen Scarborough (northeast Toronto) and Markham. I wonder what I'll get out of this?

what part of steeles? closer to warden, the pacific mall, or over by mcowan? i used to live near sheppard and birchmount, and the now defunct "world weatherwatch" where i worked for the majority of time up in toronto, was near warden and denison.

but up at steeles ave, it'll be a close call, but i'll say mainly more snow than a mix. the sloppy mix line should be somewhere between st clair and bloor/danforth, maybe eglinton if you're lucky. i'd say 4-7 cms of a sloppy mess on toronto island and downtown, 8-11 cms near the 401, and 12-16 north of highway 7 (maybe 20 near the top side of the 404 on the escarpment).

[CoraopolisWx]

Still looks good for BUF

Cantore is flying to Buffalo tonight.

You folks up there should meet up, and discuss the storm with him.

Mabey you'll get some thundersnow. LOL

[lakeeffectkid383]

Cantore is flying to Buffalo tonight.

You folks up there should meet up, and discuss the storm with him.

Mabey you'll get some thundersnow. LOL

If know where exactly hes gonna be ill be there in a second to get a pic,autograph, and talk with him. that'd be awesome. Will have to get up at 5am to see his first live shot on TWC to see where he's at.

[CoraopolisWx]

If know where exactly hes gonna be ill be there in a second to get a pic,autograph, and talk with him. that'd be awesome. Will have to get up at 5am to see his first live shot on TWC to see where he's at.

That's awesome, mabey I'll get up early and check it out.

[CoastalWx]

You can see how the band really comes together tomorrow morning on the HRRR after looking a bit disorganized per the model. Pretty neat.

[N. OF PIKE]

Obs at 2000 ft 35 and rain in Jefferson...northwest Catskills. So I think you got to be in central NY for any flakes, or way up north where SLK has snow and 33. Also BGM at 1600' just rain at 10 PM.

rick

to your south 33.4 a 1750'

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE024.gif

then a bit SW bouncin between 32 and 33 at 2300'

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MC3315

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MCVLN6 1600' 32F

[Ottawa Blizzard]

what part of steeles? closer to warden, the pacific mall, or over by mcowan? i used to live near sheppard and birchmount, and the now defunct "world weatherwatch" where i worked for the majority of time up in toronto, was near warden and denison.

but up at steeles ave, it'll be a close call, but i'll say mainly more snow than a mix. the sloppy mix line should be somewhere between st clair and bloor/danforth, maybe eglinton if you're lucky. i'd say 4-7 cms of a sloppy mess on toronto island and downtown, 8-11 cms near the 401, and 12-16 north of highway 7 (maybe 20 near the top side of the 404 on the escarpment).

Near McCowan. I remember when Cullen Country Barns used to be where Pacific Mall is now. 8-11cm sounds good. When do you think the rain will change to snow in my area? The tmeperature has actually risen a degree celcius to 7C (45F) at my place over the past hour. I imagine the temperature will drop once the NE wind kicks in.

[Jim Marusak]

Cantore is flying to Buffalo tonight.

You folks up there should meet up, and discuss the storm with him.

Mabey you'll get some thundersnow. LOL

they should have a meeting of the minds on this weather situation, with cantore on the US side of the rainbow or queenston-lewiston bridge (peace bridge would be the wrong side of town down by buffalo/ft erie), and one of the TWN people on the Canadian side, for a continental joining of the minds overlooking border country of the niagara frontier; if they can get customs clearances to use the border crossing for that.

[Rascalz]

Near McCowan. I remember when Cullen Country Barns used to be where Pacific Mall is now. 8-11cm sounds good. When do you think the rain will change to snow in my area? The tmeperature has actually risen a degree celcius to 7C (45F) at my place over the past hour. I imagine the temperature will drop once the NE wind kicks in.

EC and TWN both dont have our temperatures going below 36. I cant imagine 8-11cm accumulating with temperatures being that high.

[Jim Marusak]

Near McCowan. I remember when Cullen Country Barns used to be where Pacific Mall is now. 8-11cm sounds good. When do you think the rain will change to snow in my area? The tmeperature has actually risen a degree celcius to 7C (45F) at my place over the past hour. I imagine the temperature will drop once the NE wind kicks in.

you're probably closer to 12 or so out there on steeles and mcowan.

but yea, once the northeasterlies come in, you're get the evaporative cooling from the land. usually 070 will do it, but sometimes an 090 can as well. btw, for best grid point there at your house, i'd recommend using ykz (buttonville-markham) instead of yyz (pearson)

[Jim Marusak]

EC and TWN both dont have our temperatures going below 36. I cant imagine 8-11cm accumulating with temperatures being that high.

depends on where they slapped the mississaga gridpoint. if they put it closer to the QEW, then yea +2 may be it. but if you're closer to the 403 or even at the 401 (near the TWN studios), you'll probably get to say the plus-side of 0 or +1.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

you're probably closer to 12 or so out there on steeles and mcowan.

but yea, once the northeasterlies come in, you're get the evaporative cooling from the land. usually 070 will do it, but sometimes an 090 can as well. btw, for best grid point there at your house, i'd recommend using ykz (buttonville-markham) instead of yyz (pearson)

I hear you. I usually look to Buttonville's observations as opposed to Pearson. I find that in the winter, it is often a few degrees colder at McCowan and Steeles compared to Pearson and especially downtown. We get more snow than downtown 90% of the time too.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

you're probably closer to 12 or so out there on steeles and mcowan.

but yea, once the northeasterlies come in, you're get the evaporative cooling from the land. usually 070 will do it, but sometimes an 090 can as well. btw, for best grid point there at your house, i'd recommend using ykz (buttonville-markham) instead of yyz (pearson)

Ec has actually been very conservative with this storm. If we do get 10cm or so a lot of Torontonians are going to be surprised. By the way, got to love how this is almost 36 years to the day since the April 24, 1976 snow event in Toronto. That year was a La Nina transitioning to an El Nino as this year might end up being. Now, if we could only get a winter even remotely similar to 1976-77 next year to make up for this year's lackluster winter.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Brett Anderson of accuweather seems to think the April sun will prevent most, if any of this snow from accumulating in the Toronto area. Does anyone think the snow rates will be heavy enough to overcome the April sun?

[CoastalWx]

Brett Anderson of accuweather seems to think the April sun will prevent most, if any of this snow from accumulating in the Toronto area. Does anyone think the snow rates will be heavy enough to overcome the April sun?

If it's not coming down hard, it will have trouble sticking. If it's moderate snow, it will stick to grassy areas, but it may have a tough time at YYZ unless it's coming down hard.

[CoastalWx]

Still looks good for NW PA and areas up to BUF, especially high country.

[Jim Marusak]

I hear you. I usually look to Buttonville's observations as opposed to Pearson. I find that in the winter, it is often a few degrees colder at McCowan and Steeles compared to Pearson and especially downtown. We get more snow than downtown 90% of the time too.

that's why i gave you my numbers like i did using the streets/highways. that's how we used to do it at WWW for the megacity of toronto for the winter precip forecasts (as well as other cities like ottawa-carleton and greater sudbury).

[lakeeffectkid383]

GFS looks good for BUF again. Pretty much a lock now (i hope)

[Jim Marusak]

Brett Anderson of accuweather seems to think the April sun will prevent most, if any of this snow from accumulating in the Toronto area. Does anyone think the snow rates will be heavy enough to overcome the April sun?

at the lakeshore, not sure. but go north of the 401 or 7, and yea, the elevation will overcome things, esepcially if the band sets up off of georgian bay like the 18Z GEM was suggesting (causing a nightmare evening commute on the 400/404 north of 7 or major mac).

[Blizzard92]

Rain/snow mix here on campus

[OSUmetstud]

SREFs look good. Not highlighting any areas for greater than 12"...but showing a 50 to 60% chance of greater than 8" from Wyoming County through BUF down into Chautauqua County.

[Gravity Wave]

Moderate snow here. I'm not quite sure when it started(the light rain began around 5:30) but it's beginning to stick on windshields. The temperature has dropped to 33(!!!), which is lower than the 35 degree forecast. We were not supposed to see anything beyond a few backend snow showers, so I'm going to be curious to see if this keeps up overnight.

[Blizzard92]

Slushy coating forming here on campus at around 850ft. Not sure how the town of Ithaca is faring at a lower elevation.

[Gravity Wave]

Slushy coating forming here on campus at around 850ft. Not sure how the town of Ithaca is faring at a lower elevation.

I'm at 700 feet in Collegetown, and there's snow but no accumulation. Interesting how seemingly minute differences in elevation matter so much in this storm. Where on campus are you?

[Blizzard92]

I am up on north campus. Grass has begun to turn white here within the last 15 minutes. All snow now with no rain mixing in.

Edit: now sticking to sidewalks and parking lot. This is crazy!

[JoMo]

Precip typing on GREarth not doing that badly when compared to the metars.

[Gravity Wave]

Moderate snow now accumulating on all surfaces. Approaching an inch on windshields and grassy surfaces.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Have a feeling this is gonna majorly under achieve here. Im talking like 1-2" . Still 35 and all rain here. The rain/snow line is still around 1000 feet above me and shows no real signs of moving either. Areas east of me that were barely under an advisory yesterday are now in a warning seeing heavy snow while i sit in rain. Oh well.