phoenixny Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Webcam from Flat Rock Inn(Top of Tug Hill)looks like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 So, will the lower-than-forecasted high temperatures today effect the rain-to-snow transtion time? I think NWS BUF predicted highs in the upper 40s, but most of WNY never made it out of the lower 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 It's possible as the comma head pushes west in the next 3-5 hrs, it could really pound in the nctrl PA mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 light snow up in the northern dacks, should be a couple of inches before the warm air pushes north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 So, will the lower-than-forecasted high temperatures today effect the rain-to-snow transtion time? I think NWS BUF predicted highs in the upper 40s, but most of WNY never made it out of the lower 40s. Was wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Webcam from Flat Rock Inn(Top of Tug Hill)looks like snow. BUF NWS mentioned a little SN to start or a mix up at the Tug, but a system that is well matured (LLV circ developed in the SE GOM) is going to be quite wrapped up and drive WWA pretty far westward, north of the storm. Models are pretty unanimous with that scenario. I'm most interested in what transpires south of L. Ontario, just west of ROC....will the lake keep the precip mostly rain, even with nocturnal precip and 850's nearing -5C??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Was wondering the same thing. I think they were counting on a thinning of the deck....I don't think a slightly less amount of llv heating will make too much of a timing difference. Low and mid level dynamics will drive 95% of p-type and timing issues vs. ambient starting surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yea, I saw that. It seems like all storms have some kind of surprises. I wonder when that plume of intense oranges reach the area will it be able to pull the rain/snow line east to maybe Auburn for a bit with the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yea, I saw that. It seems like all storms have some kind of surprises. I wonder when that plume of intense oranges reach the area will it be able to pull the rain/snow line east to maybe Auburn for a bit with the heavy rates. For us elevation challanged, I think Auburn is about as far east as it gets, in terms of seeing flakes (for the main part of the storm) Of course the hills to the SW of SYR should get in on some slop during the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 BUF NWS mentioned a little SN to start or a mix up at the Tug, but a system that is well matured (LLV circ developed in the SE GOM) is going to be quite wrapped up and drive WWA pretty far westward, north of the storm. Models are pretty unanimous with that scenario. I'm most interested in what transpires south of L. Ontario, just west of ROC....will the lake keep the precip mostly rain, even with nocturnal precip and 850's nearing -5C??? i'm thinking a sloppy mess at the lakeshores and to near ROC. but south of there to the thruway, i'm thinking mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 For us elevation challanged, I think Auburn is about as far east as it gets, in terms of seeing flakes (for the main part of the storm) Of course the hills to the SW of SYR should get in on some slop during the early morning hours. Trying to figure out how to respond to your post. I will of course know after I hit the add button. I could write up a beautiful NWS forecast for this storm if it was January and it moved a bit more northerly then hooked in towards Albany or even a bit east of there. Oh well. Next year will be better as it can't get much worse that this past year. A wasted Noreaster although we need the rain. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 37F here in Ithaca, NY on campus. Not expecting anything really other than a very cold rain, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I copied this from the GL/OH valley thread that I posted, seems like most are ignoring the areas just east of Pittsburgh, you guys may want to look at the UKMET....thoughts? What I find really interesting, and I know this is posted in the GL/OH valley thread, ( I will try and post in the appropriate thread as well) is the UKMET model. That and the Euro are my favorite winter weather models. I don't want to post all the maps here for those that don't want to see them. But here is link to Earl's foreign model page...take a close look at the 30hr UKMET. If convection is occurring just to the se of the Pittsburgh area it could pull more moisture into the cold sector. My guess is that right now the area just east of Pittsburgh could get nasty. http://wxcaster.com/...eign_models.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 A very cold raw rain at 36 here. That's about as low as we can go I'd say. Roady in the hills of Northern Chenango County should report in... He could have wet snow if I'm this chilly way over here. For us elevation challanged, I think Auburn is about as far east as it gets, in terms of seeing flakes (for the main part of the storm) Of course the hills to the SW of SYR should get in on some slop during the early morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 rick look at the latest 15 min interval on intellicast radar just to your ?west at prolly 1400' feet or so it's snowing. may get down to you but i'd think 1700' and up gets some accums tonite till some warmer air moves in aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Surface ops over Wilmington, DE showing a 992 MB low centered right over the Delmarva. That is deeper than progged at this point on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 That enhanced band just west may have wet snow in it over the higher hills of Otsego County especially, but no obs. The tv station obs people will start to report in after 10 PM and maybe we'll get some info from some people at >2000'. rick look at the latest 15 min interval on intellicast radar just to your ?west at prolly 1400' feet or so it's snowing. may get down to you but i'd think 1700' and up gets some accums tonite till some warmer air moves in aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 NAM shifts east of it's 18z run...colder yet again for CNY.....Hmmm. Edit: Wow....NAM now (for 12z) has 0 degree 850 near Utica vs west of SYR in previous runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 NAM shifts east of it's 18z run...colder yet again for CNY.....Hmmm. Edit: Wow....NAM not (for 12z) has 0 degree 850 near Utica vs west of SYR in previous runs.... Yeah that's interesting. Seems a little weaker with the deformation band too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Seems better for areas like ROC now, but not sure it's completely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yeah that's interesting. Seems a little weaker with the deformation band too. Yep....and SYR never goes above 0C at 850 per the 00z NAM vs. a few runs ago depicting SYR getting (and staying) to around +3 or so.....must be getting into the NAM's wheelhouse of T+3....LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 For the PA folks watching this thread, the NAM is really kind of a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yep....and SYR never goes above 0C at 850 per the 00z NAM vs. a few runs ago depicting SYR getting (and staying) to around +3 or so.....must be getting into the NAM's wheelhouse of T+3....LOL! I know, not sure if it's right with weakening the deformation band, but I could see the band shrinking a bit before maybe expanding a bit during tomorrow in combo with NW upslope flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 For the PA folks watching this thread, the NAM is really kind of a complete disaster. I wouldn't get the toasters out yet....NAM has been the most unstable of all the models with this storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I know, not sure if it's right with weakening the deformation band, but I could see the band shrinking a bit before maybe expanding a bit during tomorrow in combo with NW upslope flow? As depicted, the NAM (as one would expect with a weaker surface reflection vs. previous runs) has a looser baroclinic field at 850....such that more areas in the precip field to the west of the 0C isotherm at 850 would be more suseptible to mixing/staying rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 the DEFO band is looking like from the 18Z models also being enhanced by the lakes (Lake Ontario early on and Georgian bay later on), which are warmer than normal. not sure what the downtown will get as well as the south/west shores of Lake Ontario right near the shoreline. but away from the lake, like say a ring from the NY thruway to say 1/2 way up from downtown hamilton to the Lincoln Alexander expwy and the escarpment to areas near/north of say the 401 in southern/eastern Ontario, might get ugly. I would not want to be on the 400/404 heading north of hwy 7 tomorrow night during the eve rush if that band links up with Georgian Bay as it's looking like it'll do. I'm at the border betweeen Scarborough (northeast Toronto) and Markham. I wonder what I'll get out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 NAM shifts east of it's 18z run...colder yet again for CNY.....Hmmm. Edit: Wow....NAM now (for 12z) has 0 degree 850 near Utica vs west of SYR in previous runs.... Buffalo NWS discarded the NAM for its cold bias in comparison to other operational and ensemble models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 0z nam draws a nice sub 0c 850 circle over the catskills.....looks like fun things could be happening there tonite 2k and up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 I think we may see the echoes push into areas like western PA and NY state, but I would not be shocked if they weaken a bit near or just after dawn. Then, it gets a boost and may redevelop once again or even blossom across the same areas..especially near and north of I-80 and west of UNV. That's when moist NW upslope kicks in too. I'm seeing some signs of that, so I wouldn't be shocked if weenies start worrying later...IF it happens. This is a BFD and OLE jackpot I think..maybe secondary area in Allegheny mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 For the PA folks watching this thread, the NAM is really kind of a complete disaster. For PIT yes. Places east like Johnstown and north up towards Erie still manage to do well. I hope u guys can still manage a few inches around the 'burgh though. It's my hometown...I like to see u guys do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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