Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I bet Ottawa gets dumped on as the low winds up tomorrow, even if they dry slot and go to -RN eventually. The initial surge could hit like a wave of +SN there. I bet they end up beating YYZ. I'm sorry but I want to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I bet Ottawa gets dumped on as the low winds up tomorrow, even if they dry slot and go to -RN eventually. The initial surge could hit like a wave of +SN there. I bet they end up beating YYZ. They probably will beat us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Likely overdone but the 12z gfs has 14" for Buffalo and 20" for Jamestown according to bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Both the GFS and NAM have convective instability near 10-15 k ft between 15z and 18z tomorrow. That would be the most likely time for thundersnow and some very impressive snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Both the GFS and NAM have convective instability near 10-15 k ft between 15z and 18z tomorrow. That would be the most likely time for thundersnow and some very impressive snowfall rates. Yeah some nice signals for that. Quite a dynamic storm and about time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah some nice signals for that. Quite a dynamic storm and about time. NAM wants to blow the dryslot through here...but the GFS/EC don't. I hope the NAM is a bit overzealous with that. SREF mean for QPF is 1.50-1.75" which seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah some nice signals for that. Quite a dynamic storm and about time. Probably happening at the worst time also...after a few inches of wet glop....then, potentially 2-3"/hr. at 8:1 ratios with some wind....honestly, glad I'm missing this one. Good luck to all the WNY/WPA'ers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM wants to blow the dryslot through here...but the GFS/EC don't. I hope the NAM is a bit overzealous with that. SREF mean for QPF is 1.50-1.75" which seems reasonable. Probably happening at the worst time also...after a few inches of wet glop....then, potentially 2-3"/hr. at 8:1 ratios with some wind....honestly, glad I'm missing this one. Good luck to all the WNY/WPA'ers out there. Loop that CMC regional sim prog that was on the central pa thread. That comme head when it pushes into western NY...I wonder of that will cause an early flash over to snow in borderline areas near ROC? That's a pretty dynamic blob of moisture moving into that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm not sure if the GFS shifting east means anything for YYZ does it? Just a friendly suggestion that you should try and think about it a little bit or use other resources than continuously asking about your backyard. I haven't been paying attention to Toronto but given that many have said it's on the western edge, one might then assume a shift east wouldn't be as favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 That northern fringe of precip around BGM almost has a snowy look to it on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 At 1k feet here it feels almost like snow with ovc skies, 40F the dew point in the mid 30's, but the models say its simply too warm aloft to start as snow until you get into the high terrain of central NY someplace. But I wouldn't be shocked it the Catskills high peaks have wet flakes now. That northern fringe of precip around BGM almost has a snowy look to it on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 18z NAM coming in considerably colder (at the onset) for CNY, and storm is slightly east and a touch weaker.....more inline with Euro....suprise//// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 At 0Z 850 reaches it's min of 1C here and then rises as it winds up. Crime this didn't happen in the winter because it would have been a great dump of snow for all of us probably before dry slot issues in east/central NY. At 12Z the 850/0C line is still from about Oswego to Owego. 18z NAM coming in considerably colder (at the onset) for CNY, and storm is slightly east and a touch weaker.....more inline with Euro....suprise//// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 At 0Z 850 reaches it's min of 1C here and then rises as it winds up. Crime this didn't happen in the winter because it would have been a great dump of snow for all of us probably before dry slot issues in east/central NY. Not to mention that those who would have received snow, would keep their power......I love snow as much as any nutball on this site, but APRIL 21???.....ummmmm no thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Northern Erie also upgraded to WSW now for totals of 5-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Wellsville, NY ASOS reporting Light Snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not to mention that those who would have received snow, would keep their power......I love snow as much as any nutball on this site, but APRIL 21???.....ummmmm no thanks... You're lying to yourself if you wouldn't be loving a Winter Storm Warning right now We are all jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 WOW! Looking forward to this storm so much! Going to be EPIC!!! Even though it will be gone in a few days which is great because I am totally ready for 85 and sunny. However we received next to no snow this year. I am totally going sledding tomorrow! A thing of beauty, keeps WNY in the deformation zone for nearly the entire run! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS loves mtns western PA and especially BUF and se high terrain suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS wants to pound BUF and even YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS wants to pound BUF and even YYZ. Yep....models have now all but zeroed in on the DZ location, the LP track (NW NJ through CNY, to ART or so.....ROC to YYZ down to Steeler Country is ground zero. Get some banding going and might see a nice bout of thundersnow with max totals in the higest elevations approaching 2' I'd guess. Anything alive and not broke will then have to contend with a fresh snowcover that could (for a couple days anyway) aid in radiational cooling and possible freeze concerns. Good luck, and keep your small to medium trees/shrubs out of danger.....GO SHAKE THEM EVERY COUPLE HOURS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 EC is totally downplaying this for their side of the Niagara Frontier... Only forecasting 1-2 inches in Fort Erie and YYZ. GFS wants to pound BUF and even YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 And good luck to those with sat. dishes for tv or internet. During the crazy 4 foot wet snowfall here two Feb's ago I had to keep hurling hot water about 15 feet up to dislodge the pasting wet snow. LOL Yep....models have now all but zeroed in on the DZ location, the LP track (NW NJ through CNY, to ART or so.....ROC to YYZ down to Steeler Country is ground zero. Get some banding going and might see a nice bout of thundersnow with max totals in the higest elevations approaching 2' I'd guess. Anything alive and not broke will then have to contend with a fresh snowcover that could (for a couple days anyway) aid in radiational cooling and possible freeze concerns. Good luck, and keep your small to medium trees/shrubs out of danger.....GO SHAKE THEM EVERY COUPLE HOURS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yep....models have now all but zeroed in on the DZ location, the LP track (NW NJ through CNY, to ART or so.....ROC to YYZ down to Steeler Country is ground zero. Get some banding going and might see a nice bout of thundersnow with max totals in the higest elevations approaching 2' I'd guess. Anything alive and not broke will then have to contend with a fresh snowcover that could (for a couple days anyway) aid in radiational cooling and possible freeze concerns. Good luck, and keep your small to medium trees/shrubs out of danger.....GO SHAKE THEM EVERY COUPLE HOURS!!! High terrain of sw NY state just downwind of Erie look to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 36.3 and rain here now. Probably start as snow in most places with any elevation west of ENY. High terrain of sw NY state just downwind of Erie look to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like the models now put the DEFO band into YYZ. Thundersnow a possibility tommorow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Strong wording from CTP: ...A DESTRUCTIVE LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... Bradford, PA forecast is for 2-4 tonight, 5-9 tomorrow, then another 3-5 tomorrow night! ~1550ft. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 And good luck to those with sat. dishes for tv or internet. During the crazy 4 foot wet snowfall here two Feb's ago I had to keep hurling hot water about 15 feet up to dislodge the pasting wet snow. LOL + Hot Water FTW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Wow just got home from work and both the 18z GFS and 18z NAM crush BUF. Absolutley crush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like the models now put the DEFO band into YYZ. Thundersnow a possibility tommorow night the DEFO band is looking like from the 18Z models also being enhanced by the lakes (Lake Ontario early on and Georgian bay later on), which are warmer than normal. not sure what the downtown will get as well as the south/west shores of Lake Ontario right near the shoreline. but away from the lake, like say a ring from the NY thruway to say 1/2 way up from downtown hamilton to the Lincoln Alexander expwy and the escarpment to areas near/north of say the 401 in southern/eastern Ontario, might get ugly. I would not want to be on the 400/404 heading north of hwy 7 tomorrow night during the eve rush if that band links up with Georgian Bay as it's looking like it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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