powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I love these elevation snowstorms though...always amazes me what a difference a few feet can make. Like the one we had in early April where we ended up with a 24" difference over 1,000 feet of elevation change. 2500ft...24" 2000ft...12" 1500ft...3" 1300ft...T I wonder if a similar gradient will set up in WV or parts of SW PA but maybe at a little lower elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm getting very nervous here in PIttsburgh. Both the Euro and the GFS have moved everything slightly East, and put KPIT in an area of about .5 QPF. At this time of year, that isn't going to give us very much. The NAM still gives us an absolute monster hit, but it is getting to the point that it is on it's own. I am thinking we may bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Jim Cantore of the weather channel will be in buffalo later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro last night pretty much held serve...increased qpf a bit in western pa/western ny and got a touch stronger with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro last night pretty much held serve...increased qpf a bit in western pa/western ny and got a touch stronger with the system. I would assume it still looks the same for my area correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Euro last night pretty much held serve...increased qpf a bit in western pa/western ny and got a touch stronger with the system. So looks pretty good for BUF? Usually wherever Cantore goes bad weather usually follows so maybe him coming to Buffalo will really make us get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 qpf on the euro is somewhere around 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 qpf on the euro is somewhere around 1.5". For BUF or YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I would assume it still looks the same for my area correct? you're still on the fringe...you might be able to pick up a few inches later in the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 For BUF or YYZ? BUF...YYZ would be significantly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 BUF...YYZ would be significantly less. Anyway of knowing how much of that 1.5" is showing as snow on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Anyway of knowing how much of that 1.5" is showing as snow on the Euro? the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32. Does the euro show it as light to mod at 35 or more heavy snow at 32 for BUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does the euro show it as light to mod at 35 or more heavy snow at 32 for BUF? it's hard to explicitly gauge that from a model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 it's hard to explicitly gauge that from a model... Thought so. So BUF prob lookin at about 6" or so though on a general consenus of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I suspect the greatest snows will be over western PA and areas south of BUF such as Ellicottville. It reminds me of the so callled "snow cane" here in late February 2010, where we had such a crazy amplified low that warm air wrapped north of the cold air and ALB was rain while NYC was +SN. the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I suspect the greatest snows will be over western PA and areas south of BUF such as Ellicottville. It reminds me of the so callled "snow cane" here in late February 2010, where we had such a crazy amplified low that warm air wrapped north of the cold air and ALB was rain while NYC was +SN. Nov. 1950 lol...gusts of over 100 mph on the Mid-Atlantic coast rain in BUF and over 30" of snow in Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Any mets wanna chime in on their thinking for BUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS looked really impressive for BUF and srn burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 How far along is leaf out in BUF/PIT? In October it was the lower elevations around here that had the worst damage. Most of the snow fell with temps 32-34F so it was extremely wet and heavy and there were more leaves still on the trees near sea level than up above 1000 ft. I had about 14" and it was a disaster here. Temperature never fell below 33 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 yeah 12z gfs clobbers BUF. puts us right in the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Everything has pretty much leafed out here in Pittsburgh, some trees are still bare or have small leves/buds. Alot of the maples have big leaves on them, and it usually early May when the trees get full leaves on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 really like that the gfs shifted east slightly and got colder...model qpf aside...this run puts BUF into NW PA into the best stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Hopefully the NAM is being it's usual self and we are gonna see a bit of a last minute eastward adjustment. I'm rooting for a big snow for my cousins in Andover at 2300'. The NAM was just getting too far west. It's too bad this couldn't have played out a month ago because with the initial track up to the NJ shore, we would have got clobbered with very heavy snow even here before changing over and dry slotting. Just too late though.... 41 here now and gonna be a cold rain this evening. yeah 12z gfs clobbers BUF. puts us right in the deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 How far along is leaf out in BUF/PIT? In October it was the lower elevations around here that had the worst damage. Most of the snow fell with temps 32-34F so it was extremely wet and heavy and there were more leaves still on the trees near sea level than up above 1000 ft. I had about 14" and it was a disaster here. Temperature never fell below 33 either. I think it will be significant but not devastating. For example, May 8, 1989 saw 8-12" in BUF to ROC but only saw about 13,000 power outages. October 2006 we had over 500,000 power outages in a storm that was more localized. Leaves in October are full whereas right now a lot of the trees have flowers or the smaller leaves that aren't fully open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 really like that the gfs shifted east slightly and got colder...model qpf aside...this run puts BUF into NW PA into the best stuff. I'm not sure if the GFS shifting east means anything for YYZ does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm not sure if the GFS shifting east means anything for YYZ does it? smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 smh I'm sorry but I want to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm sorry but I want to know? It cut QPF for you, but still spits out about 0.75" or so for you. My guess is a few inches of snow perhaps for YYZ unless a heavy band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm sorry but I want to know? dude...YYZ is already on the western fringe...of course shifting the deformation axis east would mean something for YYZ. I already provided you with a nice link to look at different model outputs on wunderground, what else do you want? You can only ask only so many IMBY questions to mets before they start to get annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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