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Potential late season snow event for western NY and PA


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I love these elevation snowstorms though...always amazes me what a difference a few feet can make. Like the one we had in early April where we ended up with a 24" difference over 1,000 feet of elevation change.

2500ft...24"

2000ft...12"

1500ft...3"

1300ft...T

I wonder if a similar gradient will set up in WV or parts of SW PA but maybe at a little lower elevation.

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I'm getting very nervous here in PIttsburgh. Both the Euro and the GFS have moved everything slightly East, and put KPIT in an area of about .5 QPF. At this time of year, that isn't going to give us very much.

The NAM still gives us an absolute monster hit, but it is getting to the point that it is on it's own.

I am thinking we may bust here.

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Anyway of knowing how much of that 1.5" is showing as snow on the Euro?

the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32.

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the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32.

Does the euro show it as light to mod at 35 or more heavy snow at 32 for BUF?
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I suspect the greatest snows will be over western PA and areas south of BUF such as Ellicottville. It reminds me of the so callled "snow cane" here in late February 2010, where we had such a crazy amplified low that warm air wrapped north of the cold air and ALB was rain while NYC was +SN.

the first .2-.3 is lost to rain. The rest is snow...it's just a question of whether it comes down hard enough to accumulate well. I've always thought the majority of this would be snow...but light to moderate snow at 35 is a bit different than heavy snow at 32.

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I suspect the greatest snows will be over western PA and areas south of BUF such as Ellicottville. It reminds me of the so callled "snow cane" here in late February 2010, where we had such a crazy amplified low that warm air wrapped north of the cold air and ALB was rain while NYC was +SN.

Nov. 1950 lol...gusts of over 100 mph on the Mid-Atlantic coast rain in BUF and over 30" of snow in Pittsburgh.

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How far along is leaf out in BUF/PIT?

In October it was the lower elevations around here that had the worst damage. Most of the snow fell with temps 32-34F so it was extremely wet and heavy and there were more leaves still on the trees near sea level than up above 1000 ft.

I had about 14" and it was a disaster here. Temperature never fell below 33 either.

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Hopefully the NAM is being it's usual self and we are gonna see a bit of a last minute eastward adjustment. I'm rooting for a big snow for my cousins in Andover at 2300'. The NAM was just getting too far west.

It's too bad this couldn't have played out a month ago because with the initial track up to the NJ shore, we would have got clobbered with very heavy snow even here before changing over and dry slotting. Just too late though.... 41 here now and gonna be a cold rain this evening.

yeah 12z gfs clobbers BUF. puts us right in the deformation band.

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How far along is leaf out in BUF/PIT?

In October it was the lower elevations around here that had the worst damage. Most of the snow fell with temps 32-34F so it was extremely wet and heavy and there were more leaves still on the trees near sea level than up above 1000 ft.

I had about 14" and it was a disaster here. Temperature never fell below 33 either.

I think it will be significant but not devastating. For example, May 8, 1989 saw 8-12" in BUF to ROC but only saw about 13,000 power outages. October 2006 we had over 500,000 power outages in a storm that was more localized. Leaves in October are full whereas right now a lot of the trees have flowers or the smaller leaves that aren't fully open.

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I'm sorry but I want to know?

dude...YYZ is already on the western fringe...of course shifting the deformation axis east would mean something for YYZ. I already provided you with a nice link to look at different model outputs on wunderground, what else do you want?

You can only ask only so many IMBY questions to mets before they start to get annoyed.

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