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Potential late season snow event for western NY and PA


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This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F.

Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October.

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This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F.

Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October.

":

we saw this to some degree in the october 2006 LES snowstorm, mitch. The snow was 6:1 in the afternoon and the evening and it transitioned to a 12:1 snow in the late evening through the early morning.

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This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F.

Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October.

Would you include Southern Ontario in this as well?

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Wow, BUF has put in "Heavy Snow" for the grids for Monday in the western part of its CWA!

GFS, just a touch lighter with the moisture compared to the 18z run. NAM probably the wettest model, but that's typical.

gfs_namer_072_precip_ptot.gif

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I don't know how leafed out the trees are over there, but just from experience....4-5" of snow here caused a lot of damage back in October.

SFC temps and elevation will be critical...like wxmanmitch said, big difference between 33F and 30F. Parts of SNE saw catestrophic damage from 4-6", while others saw no damage from 15-30".

If you can dynamically cool to like 30-31F after 1/2" QPF at 6:1 you may be alright if the rest of the storm is 8-10:1 at 29-30F.

I think the fact that a lot of it falls during the day tomorrow doesn't bode well for power because that weak solar effect may keep temps at 31-33F instead of if it were at night slipping down to 29F.

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The thing that may save areas is that I can't imagine leaf out in the terrain is up to full warm season levels...and where it is up to full summer-like leaf out, I still think there's something to the idea that trees are a lot more hearty this time of year. I'm not saying tree damage can't be horrific but I think it's worse in fall snowstorms than in the spring.

Tamarack in the New England threads (forestry expert) sort of backed this up by saying the in the fall the trees are shutting down and drying out making them more brittle and easier to snap. In the spring they are fresh with sap and nutrients running full tilt through the branches and generally stronger than they would be at say Halloween.

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SFC temps and elevation will be critical...like wxmanmitch said, big difference between 33F and 30F. Parts of SNE saw catestrophic damage from 4-6", while others saw no damage from 15-30".

If you can dynamically cool to like 30-31F after 1/2" QPF at 6:1 you may be alright if the rest of the storm is 8-10:1 at 29-30F.

I think the fact that a lot of it falls during the day tomorrow doesn't bode well for power because that weak solar effect may keep temps at 31-33F instead of if it were at night slipping down to 29F.

Yeah there will be a difference between like 2K where it may be a drier snow, and areas between 700-1500ft or so. Low elevations like BUF seems to be a concern..and possible State College as well. It's also going to depend on where that band sets up.

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Yeah there will be a difference between like 2K where it may be a drier snow, and areas between 700-1500ft or so. Low elevations like BUF seems to be a concern..and possible State College as well. It's also going to depend on where that band sets up.

Agreed...and of course the lower elevations where the snow will be wetter, there are more leaves on the trees.

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