lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ill say 1-3 inch front end dump for BUF followed by about an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 9z sref have about a 95% chance of 1"+, 85% chance of 4"+ 50% chance of 8"+, and a 20% Chance of 12"+...in BUF not too bad at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS maintains surface temperatures near 1C for the entire storm...damn close call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GGEM goes from around POU to ART....certainly a whiter scenario for BUF than the American models depict...(ie less wrapped up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 kinda interesting that the 09z SREFs are colder than the NAM or the GFS...keeps 850s sub -4C during the lion's share of the storm...more in line with the colder 00z ec from last night. 12z ec should be quite telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 kinda interesting that the 09z SREFs are colder than the NAM or the GFS...keeps 850s sub -4C during the lion's share of the storm...more in line with the colder 00z ec from last night. 12z ec should be quite telling. Keep us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 what does it look like for us on the north side of Lake Ontario Snow wise? Are we able to stay colder aloft + at surface longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 what does it look like for us on the north side of Lake Ontario Snow wise? Are we able to stay colder aloft + at surface longer? It looks pretty good for you, but I think you'd want to be on the escarpment with a little elevation. Toronto area looks to be in a good spot for now in terms of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro continues to near western NY and down into PA big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro continues to near western NY and down into PA big time. What about the north shore of lake ontario (YYZ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro continues to near western NY and down into PA big time. Based on the 12z model runs, would you say it would be prudent to start hoisting WSW's in Western PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro continues to near western NY and down into PA big time. hows it looking for BUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Based on the 12z model runs, would you say it would be prudent to start hoisting WSW's in Western PA? I think maybe the Pittsburgh NWS isn't quite buying into it yet as far as it being cold enough here during the event to support a significant accumulation. The models certainly show it, but the NWS still has us in the 40s Monday and lows in the mid 30s with a rain/snow mix. Maybe as we get closer (later tonight or tomorrow), if the models don't budge, they'll change their tune on this. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This storm is really looking interesting! W PA, NY, and central lower ON is looking good for snow. I would think areas downwind of the lakes would be iffy for significant accumulations. Where ever the tree leaves are out the most, is where the highest probability of power outages will take place. The higher terrain south of Buffalo; I think, will get smacked with the most snow. 60hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 What about the north shore of lake ontario (YYZ) Same as before. Looks like you'll see some snow, but it will be a function of intensity. If you can't get into a heavy band and you only have like 1-2SM -SN, it probably won't stick well. I'd rather be higher up in the escarpment to the west and southwest. If you can get like 1/2SM or better..you'll accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 hows it looking for BUF? Looks impressive for BUF and especially high terrain to the south. Probably extra moisture off the Lakes too. I think I would rather be a little higher up than BUF elevation, but it still looks pretty good for some accumulation possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Same as before. Looks like you'll see some snow, but it will be a function of intensity. If you can't get into a heavy band and you only have like 1-2SM -SN, it probably won't stick well. I'd rather be higher up in the escarpment to the west and southwest. If you can get like 1/2SM or better..you'll accumulate. what's 1/2 sm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Based on the 12z model runs, would you say it would be prudent to start hoisting WSW's in Western PA? Well it's never a high confidence forecast when you have such anomalous late season storms. I would think the high terrain will see warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 what's 1/2 am? Definition of moderate snow. It's the visibility so 1/2SM means 1/2 statute mile visibility. Or in other words, moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 WSW have been issued. Timing doesn't look great for Buffalo, most of the precip during the day monday. The Laurals from SW PA to WV Get hit overnight Sunday. NAM still shows a nice hit for Buffalo. This is the highest res snowfall graphic I could find. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Definition of moderate snow. It's the visibility so 1/2SM means 1/2 statute mile visibility. Or in other words, moderate snow. how do vvs and qpf look in the cold sector on the euro, scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 how do vvs and qpf look in the cold sector on the euro, scott? Looks really good from BUF-BFD and into into NW PA. It weakens a bit Monday evening, but Monday morning and aftn may be interesting.Timing may not be ideal in terms of fighting a late August sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 This looks pretty bad for some areas. 40mph winds and cement snow. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looks really good from BUF-BFD and into into NW PA. It weakens a bit Monday evening, but Monday morning and aftn may be interesting.Timing may not be ideal in terms of fighting a late August sun. What would you say a good early estimate is for BUF itself at about 700 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I just glanced at the 12z ECMWF snow accumulator and it spits out 18+" across portions of western PA/NY. Likely overdone...ratios will be low, but there is going to be a shock to the system after all this warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 I just glanced at the 12z ECMWF snow accumulator and it spits out 18+" across portions of western PA/NY. Yeah..how's your deformation and and moist NW upslope flow doing? LOL...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 What would you say a good early estimate is for BUF itself at about 700 feet. I couldn't tell you a number right now. I'd say at least a few inches to be safe, but it will depend on exact orientation and intensity of the band. Definitely could be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I'd love to be in Sherman, NY right now. The upslope is going to be great in the deformation band as the winds turn NW. Elevation goes from 600 ft in Ripley to 1600 ft in Sherman in only a few miles. Those close to the Lake Ontario shoreline are going to have to battle a combination of lower elevation and low level warming from a Lake Ontario in the upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The mid level theta-e advection is off the charts. Given the amount of mid and upper level frontogenesis and the presence of -EPV with extreme deep height falls...there is a legit shot at some TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Yeah..how's your deformation and and moist NW upslope flow doing? LOL...wow. I would love to be in the high terrain in western NY. I guess it is possible for some of those snow amounts to verify given the combo upslope and intense deformation/frontogenesis if everything comes together perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.