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Potential late season snow event for western NY and PA


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what does it look like for us on the north side of Lake Ontario Snow wise? Are we able to stay colder aloft + at surface longer?

It looks pretty good for you, but I think you'd want to be on the escarpment with a little elevation. Toronto area looks to be in a good spot for now in terms of precip.

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Based on the 12z model runs, would you say it would be prudent to start hoisting WSW's in Western PA?

I think maybe the Pittsburgh NWS isn't quite buying into it yet as far as it being cold enough here during the event to support a significant accumulation. The models certainly show it, but the NWS still has us in the 40s Monday and lows in the mid 30s with a rain/snow mix. Maybe as we get closer (later tonight or tomorrow), if the models don't budge, they'll change their tune on this. We'll see.

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This storm is really looking interesting!

W PA, NY, and central lower ON is looking good for snow. I would think areas downwind of the lakes would be iffy for significant accumulations. Where ever the tree leaves are out the most, is where the highest probability of power outages will take place. The higher terrain south of Buffalo; I think, will get smacked with the most snow.

60hr NAM

temp60.gif

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What about the north shore of lake ontario (YYZ)

Same as before. Looks like you'll see some snow, but it will be a function of intensity. If you can't get into a heavy band and you only have like 1-2SM -SN, it probably won't stick well. I'd rather be higher up in the escarpment to the west and southwest. If you can get like 1/2SM or better..you'll accumulate.

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hows it looking for BUF?

Looks impressive for BUF and especially high terrain to the south. Probably extra moisture off the Lakes too. I think I would rather be a little higher up than BUF elevation, but it still looks pretty good for some accumulation possible.

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Same as before. Looks like you'll see some snow, but it will be a function of intensity. If you can't get into a heavy band and you only have like 1-2SM -SN, it probably won't stick well. I'd rather be higher up in the escarpment to the west and southwest. If you can get like 1/2SM or better..you'll accumulate.

what's 1/2 sm?
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Based on the 12z model runs, would you say it would be prudent to start hoisting WSW's in Western PA?

Well it's never a high confidence forecast when you have such anomalous late season storms. I would think the high terrain will see warning criteria.

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how do vvs and qpf look in the cold sector on the euro, scott?

Looks really good from BUF-BFD and into into NW PA. It weakens a bit Monday evening, but Monday morning and aftn may be interesting.Timing may not be ideal in terms of fighting a late August sun.

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What would you say a good early estimate is for BUF itself at about 700 feet.

I couldn't tell you a number right now. I'd say at least a few inches to be safe, but it will depend on exact orientation and intensity of the band. Definitely could be more.

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I'd love to be in Sherman, NY right now. The upslope is going to be great in the deformation band as the winds turn NW. Elevation goes from 600 ft in Ripley to 1600 ft in Sherman in only a few miles. Those close to the Lake Ontario shoreline are going to have to battle a combination of lower elevation and low level warming from a Lake Ontario in the upper 40s.

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