Hoosier Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Goes without saying that these late season events are very tricky to call in terms of accumulations especially outside of higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I think this is much more realistic...... Than this..... It as been my experience in MN that the Nam has been awful the last two to three years, I hardly use it all for the winter months, other than entertainment purpose's. I normally end up throwing it under the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 If I lived in any of the areas that may potentially get snow from this I would just look at it as whatever snow that falls is sort of a bonus. I'm sure many had already resigned to the fact that snowfall was pretty much done anyway. Just enjoy what falls and hope for the best I guess. The SREF has been pretty consistent in showing the best snows down in PA and far western NY, on the order of 5-8". Up in Ontario amounts do seem to drop off, but still 2-4" looks pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Goes without saying that these late season events are very tricky to call in terms of accumulations especially outside of higher elevations. I don't doubt that at all! It'll probably come down to what time of day the bulk of the snow comes down and where the deformation band sets up! And elevation of course. Thought I'd post a elevation map for western NY shows what areas will likely see the most snow. Excuse the quality. All the good quality maps are huge in file size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 They're correct about Toronto. I'd be hitting the Niagara Escarpment N & W of Toronto a little harder though. Interestingly they did add some minor accums for the Toronto-Kitchener corridor for the 11am forecast (5 am forecast had zip). I think 2cm (1") for Toronto is being generous. Maybe a slushy coating during the heaviest returns on the grass. Almost fell off my chair when I clicked on KW and saw 5cm/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Sharp western cutoff in qpf over eastern OH. Higher elevations east of Cleveland look good for some snow! If the snow makes it into Ohio well enough, I would think Geaga and Portage Counties would contain the highest totals... and to the southeast also. Pretty cool topo map of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Almost fell off my chair when I clicked on KW and saw 5cm/2". Now it's 4-8cm/1.6-3". Latest EC update calls for 4-6" now across the Haliburton Highlands/Muskokas/Algonquin and for "everywhere else" a few slushy cm. 4-8cm doesn't sound like a few slushy centimetres to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like the 18z GFS pulled the storm to the east slightly. Looking like a solid hit for Buffalo to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Sharp western cutoff in qpf over eastern OH. Higher elevations east of Cleveland look good for some snow! If the snow makes it into Ohio well enough, I would think Geaga and Portage Counties would contain the highest totals... and to the southeast also. Pretty cool topo map of the state. You can definitely see how NW Ohio used to be the Great Black Swamp. In all honesty you won't find flatter terrain until you hit the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 RUC & HRRR sim. radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 BTW, While no one should be expecting a historic storm, I wouldn't be so easy to discount this one from a snowstorm perspective simply because it's April 24th. Remember, one of the two biggest snowstorms (6-10") the Great Lakes region had this season was in Noivember and featured a synoptic setup similar to this one (in terms of how closed it was). If you're looking for major dumps around these parts, you always want to have a deeply closed low. If you can get those huge, fluffy flakes to form high aloft with plenty of moisture and lift, then dynamic cooling can do the trick in terms of accumulations if the rates are steady/heavy enough in spite of marginal temperature profiles. BTW, as for the "snowstorm" we had in 2005 around this time, there was no accumulation (or snow depth rather) at any time in the city proper. It was probably due to the fact that we couldn't get under any decent returns (seeing as the snow was rotating off the hills to the NW) versus the temperature profiles. I find that almost hard to believe about the April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm. While I dont doubt Detroit may have been in a bit of a screwzone, I cant believe there was no accumulation on grassy areas in the city proper. Even Monroe county reported 4-6", here in Wayne I had 6.7" and DTW 4.3", and observations in Oakland county ranged from 5-16". Saw plenty of pics from all 3 counties that showed a winter wonderland too. While there are unfortunately no snowfall records for the city of Detroit, the Detroit City Airport ASOS shows that snow (and pure snow, not rain/snow mix) was reported NONSTOP from 10am April 23rd through 11pm April 24th, or 37 straight hours. My recollection here is that it snowed all afternoon April 23rd but didnt stick then it stuck about an inch in the overnight and the main show was, of all times, midday April 24th under the heavy snow. Now as said, I dont doubt that Detroit city may have been in a screwhole, as the DET obs so a min visib of 0.5 mile and that very brief, most of the time over 1 mile, while DTW frequently got down to 0.2 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 7 years ago around the time of this storm dropped 16" in Lake Orion. No big deal. Its gone like 5 hrs after the storm is passed. Its a wasted track for BUF and YYZ. The last of the snow fell late Sunday Night. In the Morning i measured peak depth of 11". It was gone by 1 pm. Never seen snow melt so fast in my life and temps were in the low 40's. Came in with a storm total of 1.46" precip and 6.7" snow (started as rain, but quickly turned to snow, though it snowed and melted as fell for a good 12 hours before it started sticking). I noted snow depth in my records as peaking at 5.5" around 5pm April 24th, but my 8am snow depth obs time was 1" on April 24th as the storms peak intensity was yet to come (hit midday), then by 8am April 25th it was down to 2", and completely gone by late morning. Never had to shovel, a first (and to this day only) for a 6+ inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I find that almost hard to believe about the April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm. While I dont doubt Detroit may have been in a bit of a screwzone, I cant believe there was no accumulation on grassy areas in the city proper. Even Monroe county reported 4-6", here in Wayne I had 6.7" and DTW 4.3", and observations in Oakland county ranged from 5-16". Saw plenty of pics from all 3 counties that showed a winter wonderland too. While there are unfortunately no snowfall records for the city of Detroit, the Detroit City Airport ASOS shows that snow (and pure snow, not rain/snow mix) was reported NONSTOP from 10am April 23rd through 11pm April 24th, or 37 straight hours. My recollection here is that it snowed all afternoon April 23rd but didnt stick then it stuck about an inch in the overnight and the main show was, of all times, midday April 24th under the heavy snow. Now as said, I dont doubt that Detroit city may have been in a screwhole, as the DET obs so a min visib of 0.5 mile and that very brief, most of the time over 1 mile, while DTW frequently got down to 0.2 mile. Heck we had a few inches covering the ground out this way. Roads were real sh!tty early that morning coming home from work but they were all clear by noon. Did have some bare spots by the end of the day on grassy areas but was all gone by noon the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I find that almost hard to believe about the April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm. While I dont doubt Detroit may have been in a bit of a screwzone, I cant believe there was no accumulation on grassy areas in the city proper. Even Monroe county reported 4-6", here in Wayne I had 6.7" and DTW 4.3", and observations in Oakland county ranged from 5-16". Saw plenty of pics from all 3 counties that showed a winter wonderland too. While there are unfortunately no snowfall records for the city of Detroit, the Detroit City Airport ASOS shows that snow (and pure snow, not rain/snow mix) was reported NONSTOP from 10am April 23rd through 11pm April 24th, or 37 straight hours. My recollection here is that it snowed all afternoon April 23rd but didnt stick then it stuck about an inch in the overnight and the main show was, of all times, midday April 24th under the heavy snow. Now as said, I dont doubt that Detroit city may have been in a screwhole, as the DET obs so a min visib of 0.5 mile and that very brief, most of the time over 1 mile, while DTW frequently got down to 0.2 mile. I can attest to Powerball's comments, Eastpointe and up into Macomb County and the Southern parts of St. Clair County barely had anything that stuck. You had to be a good ways away from the lake before things did stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Heck we had a few inches covering the ground out this way. Roads were real sh!tty early that morning coming home from work but they were all clear by noon. Did have some bare spots by the end of the day on grassy areas but was all gone by noon the following day. I was so mad, I was at work during the brunt of the storm . It left me unable to get the best pics. Heres a few of mine from Wyandotte, MI: April 24, 2005 April 25, 2005 ***************************************************************** Wyandotte, MI (from wunderground, not me) 4-24-05 White Lake, MI (from wunderground) 4-24-05 SE MI (from wunderground) 4-24-05 Ann Arbor, MI (from wunderground) 4-24-05 Bad Axe, MI (from dons snowmuseum) 4-24-05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Came in with a storm total of 1.46" precip and 6.7" snow (started as rain, but quickly turned to snow, though it snowed and melted as fell for a good 12 hours before it started sticking). I noted snow depth in my records as peaking at 5.5" around 5pm April 24th, but my 8am snow depth obs time was 1" on April 24th as the storms peak intensity was yet to come (hit midday), then by 8am April 25th it was down to 2", and completely gone by late morning. Never had to shovel, a first (and to this day only) for a 6+ inch snowfall. All I kept thinking to my self was... "only if this happen 3-4 weeks earlier" and still think about it. This area up here would have ended up with 24-36" of snow easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 All I kept thinking to my self was... "only if this happen 3-4 weeks earlier" and still think about it. This area up here would have ended up with 24-36" of snow easy! I'm actually happy that it wasn't Feb lol.....AH let them have the rain...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Looks like the deformation band sets up in far western PA up to BUF to Toronto later on... Snow is breaking out all over PA tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Temperature has actually risen a degree celcius to 7C at my place over the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Temperature has actually risen a degree celcius to 7C at my place over the past hour. I notice the temperature sometimes rises just before precipitation gets going in the winter. Then it falls as dynamic cooling takes place. Did you recently cloud up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I notice the temperature sometimes rises just before precipitation gets going in the winter. Then it falls as dynamic cooling takes place. Did you recently cloud up? Yes we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Yes we did. A good reason for the temperature rise! 18 hr snowfall - HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It'll be interesting to see how much BUF can pick up. With roughly 35" there this season (an absolute disaster) this could move them quite a few notches out of the least snowy winter categories. It'll also be cool to see how this will play out with the BUF-ROC-SYR snowfall competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 I was so mad, I was at work during the brunt of the storm . It left me unable to get the best pics. Heres a few of mine from Wyandotte, MI: April 24, That may have been the only thing i did not care for about that winter ( my first winter in this state as well ) and thus 04-05. I ended up being at work for alot of the decent events including this one. Hard to believe come late June i will hit the 8yr mark since moving to MI. I also just realized i have now officially lived on this side of the apps for 10yrs now as well. Moved to Ohio in April 2002. Time needs to slow the fook down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 That may have been the only thing i did not care for about that winter ( my first winter in this state as well ) and thus 04-05. I ended up being at work for alot of the decent events including this one. Hard to believe come late June i will hit the 8yr mark since moving to MI. I also just realized i have now officially lived on this side of the apps for 10yrs now as well. Moved to Ohio in April 2002. Time needs to slow the fook down. I loved that winter! I was not at work for most of the big events, including the blizzard on Jan 22, the pre-Christmas snowstorm, etc. Speaking of snow, GFS wants to give us our own snow threat April 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 It'll be interesting to see how much BUF can pick up. With roughly 35" there this season (an absolute disaster) this could move them quite a few notches out of the least snowy winter categories. It'll also be cool to see how this will play out with the BUF-ROC-SYR snowfall competition. Yeah thats crazy...any idea where that 35" ranks? I meant to look it up earlier and forgot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 The precip seems to be late getting here and it's still 41F. What time is the precip supposed to move in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Holy Sh** it's windy! My power went down several times already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 not a cloud in the sky here in Michigan where I am but we sure have the winds "again" today from this system. Our snowfall this season was "slightly" above normal. We recieved 44.7". normal is 41.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 My Campus in Southfield (Lawrence Tech) Is running on generators ATM. We lost power around 1130. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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