Harry Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It would be a absolute hoot if this sucker could back west another couple hundred miles. A heavy wet snow event would be interesting around here. Not that lucky enough. Atleast i am not as far as THIS sort of stuff goes since i moved here. Plus i need more like 300 miles.. lol Nice thought though. Regardless of all that it is looking to be one heck of a event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Not that lucky enough. Atleast i am not as far as THIS sort of stuff goes since i moved here. Plus i need more like 300 miles.. lol Nice thought though. Regardless of all that it is looking to be one heck of a event. Agreed. I'm happy for the areas experiencing this potentially historic event, but I can do without the leaf/grass-killing snow as we segway into May. If anything, I expect the models to trend weaker with this/further east as time approaches. We would need quite a bit of bombing for this low pressure center to retrograde as far west as Detroit (and bring with it the same precipitation intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM continues including NE OH in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Such a tease for eastern MI. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Agreed. I'm happy for the areas experiencing this potentially historic event, but I can do without the leaf/grass-killing snow as we segway into May. If anything, I expect the models to trend weaker with this/further east as time approaches. We would need quite a bit of bombing for this low pressure center to retrograde as far west as Detroit (and bring with it the same precipitation intensity). It is definitely not "trending" weaker in any guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM has a snow to rain to snow for portions of Toronto. Definitely accumulates...especially on the back end during the evening. The first shot would be spackle paste. Backend snow would be decent legit snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NAM has a snow to rain to snow for portions of Toronto. Definitely accumulates...especially on the back end during the evening. The first shot would be spackle paste. Backend snow would be decent legit snow. How much do you think we get 4-8''? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 How much do you think we get 4-8''? Right now I would go low and say 2-4". Definitely don't want to see the "NW" trend continue here or Toronto will get both dryslotted and will have warm air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 GFS pulverizes Toronto. Haven't looked at soundings yet, but I would bet that would be mostly snow. More similar to 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Agreed. I'm happy for the areas experiencing this potentially historic event, but I can do without the leaf/grass-killing snow as we segway into May. If anything, I expect the models to trend weaker with this/further east as time approaches. We would need quite a bit of bombing for this low pressure center to retrograde as far west as Detroit (and bring with it the same precipitation intensity). Alot has been killed off out this way so that would not be as big a issue. But yeah other areas that has not been as cold would be a different story. I personally would never pass on a historic event. As for the track. I personally am bothered with the surface low track which i think might be too far east/ne considering where the 500 closes off and tracks. Also note the trend the past few runs has been to close it off further wsw. Looked to close off in W.PA and now we are talking near the OH/KY/IN lines. It is definitely not "trending" weaker in any guidance. Yep. The upper levels looking more impressive with each new run. Wondering your thoughts on my above comments about the surface low vs upper level features? Anyways i would atleast keep a eye on this thing in the far eastern parts of this state. Won't take much to bring that precip shield further west into the eastern parts. Historically speaking that UL track is usually a decent track for the eastern parts of this state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Alot has been killed off out this way so that would not be as big a issue. But yeah other areas that has not been as cold would be a different story. I personally would never pass on a historic event. As for the track. I personally am bothered with the surface low track which i think might be too far east/ne considering where the 500 closes off and tracks. Also note the trend the past few runs has been to close it off further wsw. Looked to close off in W.PA and now we are talking near the OH/KY/IN lines. Yep. The upper levels looking more impressive with each new run. Wondering your thoughts on my above comments about the surface low vs upper level features? Anyways i would atleast keep a eye on this thing in the far eastern parts of this state. Won't take much to bring that precip shield further west into the eastern parts. Historically speaking that UL track is usually a decent track for the eastern parts of this state. Good question, got to be careful with these events since an early rapid intensification phase can advect a ton of warm air westward which can quickly change the forecast. NAM would prolly be the most extreme, I am not sure it can come much farther W, but then I have seen weirder things. 00z GFS right now seems pretty reasonable, but as you said, certainly nothing is a lock here. All the convection that will be ongoing can wreak havoc on the model solutions. ECMWF has been consistently and slowly trending W, will see if 00Z continues that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does the 00z GFS look better than the 00z nam for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does the 00z GFS look better than the 00z nam for Toronto? Looking at soundings I would say 2-4" is still a good call. Maybe could see 3-5, but it will be spackle snow and will accumulate slowly until after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The PV produced 10 tornados in MN today with temps in the 50s. If thats a warning sign of the instability than the storm will be every bit as bad as the strongest model is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Good question, got to be careful with these events since an early rapid intensification phase can advect a ton of warm air westward which can quickly change the forecast. NAM would prolly be the most extreme, I am not sure it can come much farther W, but then I have seen weirder things. 00z GFS right now seems pretty reasonable, but as you said, certainly nothing is a lock here. All the convection that will be ongoing can wreak havoc on the model solutions. ECMWF has been consistently and slowly trending W, will see if 00Z continues that. Agreed. These kinds of systems can be a nightmare forecasting wise. I certainly won't write off anything just yet. I personally don't think it will get this far west ( have been known to be wrong so meh ) but for areas a little further east i won't write anything off yet. Speaking mainly Ohio and E.MI. I would atleast now include eastern and especially ne Ohio ( Cleveland etc ) in the heavier snow threat. NW PA/W.NY into Canada still looking solid for a big ( possible historic ) event and or Ground zero. Toronto is a question mark because of temps/elevation but as you said i too think a few inches atleast is looking probable at this time anyways. Could change ofcourse. See what the euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The PV produced 10 tornados in MN today with temps in the 50s. If thats a warning sign of the instability than the storm will be every bit as bad as the strongest model is saying. WOAH.. I had not been paying attention to that. hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It looks like I am right on the western fringe of where the snow will set up. The NAM puts me in the game for a couple inches but the other models are farther east so I'm not holding my breath. I'm at about the same longitude as Cleveland so if they get it then I might get something out of this as well. Either way though I am content to just watch this storm. Crossing my fingers and hoping that Toronto gets something good. The last time Toronto saw more than 2" after April 15 was all the way back in 1976. If Toronto sees more than 2", it will be the latest significant snow in 36 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm sure there would be more excitement if this thing was affecting more than 3 posters. I know this is from earlier, but this is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The PV produced 10 tornados in MN today with temps in the 50s. If thats a warning sign of the instability than the storm will be every bit as bad as the strongest model is saying. That is a surprise even to SPC who didn't have a risk area there until 20z outlook and at that it was a 'See Text' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Environment Canada's latest prediction at 430am. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN, WET SNOWAND ICE PELLETS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. WITH THE TEMPERATURES HOVERING ABOVE FREEZING, PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AS WET SNOW OVER THE HALIBURTON HIGHLANDS, WHERE 5 TO 10 CM ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS SURROUNDING THE HALIBURTON HIGHLANDS COULD SEE ABOUT 5 CM OF WET SNOW. THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO MAY RECEIVE A CM OR TWO, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. EASTERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO SEE ABOUT 2 CM BEFORE CHANGING TO NEAR 25 MM OF RAIN. WHILE THESE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN SNOWFALL WARNING CRITERIA, IT IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Environment Canada's latest prediction at 430am. Is that really their map... man they need a class or two in GIS/cartography. Plus honestly what snow pattern comes up in a circle like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Is that really their map... man they need a class or two in GIS/cartography. Plus honestly what snow pattern comes up in a circle like that... Nah they don't have maps. Put it together myself using the text in the statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nah they don't have maps. Put it together myself using the text in the statement. Oh... Sorry that I came off harsh there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Environment Canada is really downplaying this. Going by them, you'd think we were hardly going to get any snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Environment Canada is really downplaying this. Going by them, you'd think we were hardly going to get any snow at all. They're probably just playing it safe. Remember back in February they had a snowfall warning and nothing happened. From what I'm hearing 2-4'' may fall if you can believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 When you look at the euro wunderground maps for Toronto it looks like the heavy snow does get back in the Toronto area but there looks like quite sharp gradient setting up near the lake. I guess i would rather be away from the lake in this situation but I'm not familiar with Toronto climate so I guess it's FWIW. You guys deserve a pounding out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Tricky snowfall forecast situation for Ontario, my guess is 5-15 cms (2-6 in) on higher ground in a zone from Cambridge and Guelph across York region and Simcoe county into the Kawarthas and Bancroft towards the Ottawa valley. More of a melting mix from Hamilton and Toronto east north east to Ottawa, turning to all rain in eastern Ontario for most of Monday, heavy rain from Kingston to Montreal. Toronto suburbs could see some accumulations, lakeshore and downtown probably mostly melting. Are the trees fully out like they were for the 1976 storm? That one did a lot of damage to hydro lines in places north of Toronto where 20 cms fell, because an earlier warm spell had brought full leaf foliation about 2-3 weeks early, so it was a sort of once in a lifetime combination unless this makes it twice. The track on that storm was more west to east than this one. I can also remember accumulating snow in early May of both 1966 and 1967 but those were cold springs and leaves were nowhere near out. Then there was that southward moving event in May 1977 but that seemed to blow off the trees too fast to do much damage. Weird storm in the middle of a very hot spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Tricky snowfall forecast situation for Ontario, my guess is 5-15 cms (2-6 in) on higher ground in a zone from Cambridge and Guelph across York region and Simcoe county into the Kawarthas and Bancroft towards the Ottawa valley. More of a melting mix from Hamilton and Toronto east north east to Ottawa, turning to all rain in eastern Ontario for most of Monday, heavy rain from Kingston to Montreal. Toronto suburbs could see some accumulations, lakeshore and downtown probably mostly melting. Are the trees fully out like they were for the 1976 storm? That one did a lot of damage to hydro lines in places north of Toronto where 20 cms fell, because an earlier warm spell had brought full leaf foliation about 2-3 weeks early, so it was a sort of once in a lifetime combination unless this makes it twice. The track on that storm was more west to east than this one. I can also remember accumulating snow in early May of both 1966 and 1967 but those were cold springs and leaves were nowhere near out. Then there was that southward moving event in May 1977 but that seemed to blow off the trees too fast to do much damage. Weird storm in the middle of a very hot spring. Trees are not fully leaved here. Buds are in an advanced stage of sprouting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Environment Canada is really downplaying this. Going by them, you'd think we were hardly going to get any snow at all. They're correct about Toronto. I'd be hitting the Niagara Escarpment N & W of Toronto a little harder though. Interestingly they did add some minor accums for the Toronto-Kitchener corridor for the 11am forecast (5 am forecast had zip). I think 2cm (1") for Toronto is being generous. Maybe a slushy coating during the heaviest returns on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I would think Toronto has something going for it in terms of snow sticking... offshore winds. On the flip side you have the time of day and urban heat island working against also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.