Cheeznado Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looking at the recent model data including the 12Z Euro, there will be an unending strong SW flow across all of the West over the next 10 days, with the brunt of the moisture hose over CA ans southern OR as a vortex over the GOA will move little. Snow levels. at least at first, will be fairly high, so some snowmelt may add to flooding concerns. The higher peaks of the Sierra, southern Cascaded and Siskyou mountains will see many many feet of snow. This may end up being the biggest weather story in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yeah good point, both ECM and GFS ensembles similar with SW flow across the same area, especially the Sierras and northern CA coastal range into Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The pattern strongly resembles the 1955 and 1964 December floods the former arguably the worst of the 20th Century for Northern and Central CA. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 415 PM PST WED DEC 15 2010 ...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .A SERIES OF WET PACIFIC STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET. CAZ096-097-160600- /O.NEW.KHNX.WS.A.0022.101217T1800Z-101220T0000Z/ SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON- TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS- 415 PM PST WED DEC 15 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT ABOVE 7000 FEET FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HANFORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. * ELEVATION: ABOVE 7000 FEET. * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: TUOLUMNE MEADOWS...TIOGA PASS...CAMP NELSON AND PARK RIDGE. * WINDS: SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ALONG THE CREST. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL INTO THE BACK COUNTRY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MAY BE DIFFICULT...IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Let the dumping...and flooding...begin. They are going to get crushed out W the way it looks now. It doesn't look as bad as it did 2 days ago, but it will still be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 weather channel jus said 10+ feet of snow in the sierras.. wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Record for a single storm snowfall in CA is 13.2 ft at Mt Shasta in 1959. That's also the US and World Record. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Record for a single storm snowfall in CA is 13.2 ft at Mt Shasta in 1959. That's also the US and World Record. Steve What did they consider "single storm"? This will likely drop locally higher amounts than that but over 140+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What did they consider "single storm"? This will likely drop locally higher amounts than that but over 140+ hours. It was a 5 day storm. Single storm is a continuous period of snow. However, Shasta's record has been superceded by Echo Summit which received 185 inches of snow during a 7 day period where it snowed on all 7 days. Shasta has the 3 day snowfall record at 122 inches. Echo Summit's 24 hour record snowfall is 67 inches but that was not during the same storm where they got the 185 inches. Tamarack holds the monthly record for the Sierra with over 300 inches of snow in one month. The Cascades in WA get more snow on average than the Sierra but when it snows in the Sierra it really snows. the long uphill slope on the windward side of the range really wrings out the flakes. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlady Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why seasonal forecasting is such a crapshoot... CA Dec 2010 Normal for All of 2010 Bakersfield 4.32 6.16 Sacramento 4.08 16.95 San Francisco 3.87 18.96 Ontario 2.60 14.02 Fullerton 5.05 10.66 Los Angeles USC 6.42 14.39 Not even done with December and my DJF precip forecast is gone, all because of basically one big mammoth storm All this rain and not even during an El Nino. Too bad, if it were, the media would play that angle up to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mt.Zoniac Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 San Diego is in the unusual situation of needing Arks. They didn't want Noah tho. Separation of church & Left Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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