ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 980 low on Cape May at hour 69. Close to 3" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I would think NAM produces moderate coastal flooding on the sunday night tide, thats perfect surface low placement for south shore and back bay flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Beautiful storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow at the 12z NAM solution! What a system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What's the timing of this storm?? 5pm Sunday to monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 When are we expecting the rain to start falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Based on the NAM tomorrow is largely dry but we are raining by midday Sunday What's the timing of this storm?? 5pm Sunday to monday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 WOW what a storm, going to be time to look at the suny MM5 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 3"-4"+ for all..Not too different then the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This could be a bad outcome for coastal flooding, given the track here. The NNW fade at the end keeps Long Island in a strong SE fetch for quite a long time. Could be bad also for NY Harbor locations with the fetch. Crazy low level jet and likely surface winds too. If it deepens like this, we could see 60+ mph gusts on the coast. Looking to the west side of the storm, cold air crashes in and there could be quite a bit of snow for the NY and PA mountains in the deform zone. Overall this should easily be the most intense system we've seen since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 nice! the NAM phases beautifully in that 60-70 hour range.. it's been a while since we've seen a nice coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 we're in a very favorable right entrance region of a massive jet streak at 250 mb as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It is most likely going to be from Saturday night thru at least Monday morning. The heart of the storm looks to be from around mid day Sunday thru Monday morning. What's the timing of this storm?? 5pm Sunday to monday afternoon? When are we expecting the rain to start falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 any guess on wind on the coast?..another 92 or 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 60mph+ gusts near the coast, look likely if this verifies. 925mb winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow...we even get a small warm sector as the low moves inland south and west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 60mph+ gusts near the coast, look likely if this verifies. 925mb winds: Long Island is directly underneath the nose of the incoming jet. I'd say 60-70 mph gusts if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 any guess on wind on the coast?..another 92 or 2010? Soundings have 975 winds sustained up to 40mph at ISP at the height. I imagine gusts are past 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 60mph+ gusts near the coast, look likely if this verifies. 925mb winds: wow..looks like March 2010..60 70 mile an hour gusts..time to wake up LIPA..here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Some of those NAM images look similar to Irene when you remove the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 There's a pretty big discrepancy though. The NAM has basically nothing through Sunday morning but on the GFS a half inch has fallen by then. The end result is the same, the heavy stuff comes in Sunday into Monday. But it does have implications for those trying to get outdoor plans in tomorrow before the deluge comes. It most likely going to be from Saturday night thru at least Monday morning. The heart of the storm looks to be from around mid day Sunday thru Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 There's a pretty big discrepancy though. The NAM has basically nothing through Sunday morning but on the GFS a half inch has fallen by then. The end result is the same, the heavy stuff comes in Sunday into Monday. But it does have implications for those trying to get outdoor plans in tomorrow before the deluge comes. GFS has more rain falling with the stationary front. NAM has less and focuses most of it during the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Pretty sick. 1" of rain right over NYC in only a 3 hour period early Monday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 In my opinion, the NAM as well as the EURO are usually a bit slow with storms, so I would expect rain to be moving in with the main system Saturday night, we will see if that pans out. There's a pretty big discrepancy though. The NAM has basically nothing through Sunday morning but on the GFS a half inch has fallen by then. The end result is the same, the heavy stuff comes in Sunday into Monday. But it does have implications for those trying to get outdoor plans in tomorrow before the deluge comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Soundings have 975 winds sustained up to 40mph at ISP at the height. I imagine gusts are past 60mph. Ag so pretty much from the city east looks like strong winds? Can't really tell I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 nice! the NAM phases beautifully in that 60-70 hour range.. it's been a while since we've seen a nice coastal... Just a week and some odd days of 6 months.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Ag so pretty much from the city east looks like strong winds? Can't really tell I'm on my phone I would say the strongest winds will be along south facing areas and more as you head towards Long Beach and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I always saw this as having the potential to bring big time rain if the phasing and development worked out correctly. Direct tap to the Caribbean and massive dynamics to squeeze it all out. 3-5" for many sounds like a good bet. Way inland, the snow could be a huge story as well as it's late April and trees are leafed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I would say the strongest winds will be along south facing areas and more as you head towards Long Beach and east. Thanks, looks like I'll have a good weekend, much needed rain hopefully not to much tree damage though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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