Sundog Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Both the 6z NAM and GFS now have 3"-4" of rain for NYC and the area. Euro and the rest of the globals as well. American models cave to the foreigners. They're all wrong though, dry begets dry. I'm planning a picnic on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Both the 6z NAM and GFS now have 3"-4" of rain for NYC and the area. Euro and the rest of the globals as well. The last time that we saw a 3+ storm total was TS Lee's remnants back in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Will be interesting how this storm reacts to the above noraml SST's off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro ensembles nailed this storm. They've had 2"-4" of rain for days while every other guidance was still adjusting. The great thing about the euro and the ensembles is that they are promoting 2 more rain chances after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro ensembles nailed this storm. They've had 2"-4" of rain for days while every other guidance was still adjusting. The great thing about the euro and the ensembles is that they are promoting 2 more rain chances after Sunday. The Euro ensemble mean is probably the best long range piece of guidance that we have especially from 96-120 to 240. It never wavered since last weekend with the more westerly track even when the OP was east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro ensembles nailed this storm. They've had 2"-4" of rain for days while every other guidance was still adjusting. The great thing about the euro and the ensembles is that they are promoting 2 more rain chances after Sunday. I agree, that Euro ensembles performed the best so far. Most consistent in impacting us hard, since last weekend. They were also good with big heat on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I agree, that Euro ensembles performed the best so far. Most consistent in impacting us hard, since last weekend. They were also good with big heat on Monday. I think it had a horrible winter...how many day 5 threats with ensemble support....this is really the first storm threat it has nailed in a while.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The best is obviously the euro control run!! I don't believe the 0z gfs sub 980mb low will verify.. I could a 988-986 type low depending on how quick the low gets going down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I think it had a horrible winter...how many day 5 threats with ensemble support....this is really the first storm threat it has nailed in a while.. When the OP Euro had the over-phased big coastal low I think back in January, the ensemble mean was correctly OTS. When the ensemble disagrees with the OP, it's a red flag not to put too much weight on the OP until it comes into better agreement with the ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 When the OP Euro had the over-phased big coastal low I think back in January, the ensemble mean was correctly OTS. When the ensemble disagrees with the OP, it's a red flag not to put too much weight on the OP until it comes into better agreement with the ensemble. Thanks.....i believe the ensembles had has in.big rain all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Hoping for a quick phase and a low that tracks to our west. That would bring in a lot of wind with the rain as well. Great news for the drought. I think 3-4" is absolutely possible in this case and some 5" totals can't be ruled out either. The moisture available and the developing low will mean some heavy rain amounts for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Hoping for a quick phase and a low that tracks to our west. That would bring in a lot of wind with the rain as well. Great news for the drought. I think 3-4" is absolutely possible in this case and some 5" totals can't be ruled out either. The moisture available and the developing low will mean some heavy rain amounts for many. ...Seems the worm is about to turn with the drought...im with algreek and a few others...if we are going to get rain...lets do a april 07 or march 10 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Hoping for a quick phase and a low that tracks to our west. That would bring in a lot of wind with the rain as well. Great news for the drought. I think 3-4" is absolutely possible in this case and some 5" totals can't be ruled out either. The moisture available and the developing low will mean some heavy rain amounts for many. It better be windy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro details: 3.5"-4" of rain for NYC Sunday 8pm through 11pm it has 1" of rain alone in only a 3 hour period. Also has fairly strong winds for coastal areas. 20 - 30mph sustained winds for most of the storm and during the height of the storm it has 30 - 40mph sustained winds. I would imagine gusts will be 50+mph. Hide tides are already above normal with the new moon regardless for Saturday night and the 2 high tide cycles on Sunday; Along with this storm, the high tide cycles could present some minor coastal flooding for the south shore and also for back bays of the LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro details: 3.5"-4" of rain for NYC Sunday 8pm through 11pm it has 1" of rain alone in only a 3 hour period. Also has fairly strong winds for coastal areas. 20 - 30mph sustained winds for most of the storm and during the height of the storm it has 30 - 40mph sustained winds. I would imagine gusts will be 50+mph. Hide tides are already above normal with the new moon regardless for Saturday night and the 2 high tide cycles on Sunday; Along with this storm, the high tide cycles could present some minor coastal flooding for the south shore and also for back bays of the LI sound. Doesn't look like it will stall, which is good news for the high tides in that there won't be a huge amount of time for an easterly fetch to develop. Still will likely be dicey for 1 or 2 high tide cycles particularly in vulnerable spots such as Freeport and the back bays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The new GFS to the right (PRX) looks more like the Euro with a better defined Gulf development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 New srefs match the rest of the modeling suite now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Usually when long island is in the bullseye to get the heaviest rains 9/10 times we get showery/occasionally heavy precip and jersey, upstate,ny is getting it instead. Same with the winter storms. I could pretty much say if were in the bullseye that new jersey, upstate,ny gets the heavy rain while were hit and miss showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro details: 3.5"-4" of rain for NYC Sunday 8pm through 11pm it has 1" of rain alone in only a 3 hour period. Also has fairly strong winds for coastal areas. 20 - 30mph sustained winds for most of the storm and during the height of the storm it has 30 - 40mph sustained winds. I would imagine gusts will be 50+mph. Hide tides are already above normal with the new moon regardless for Saturday night and the 2 high tide cycles on Sunday; Along with this storm, the high tide cycles could present some minor coastal flooding for the south shore and also for back bays of the LI sound. <cartman>sweet</cartman> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Usually when long island is in the bullseye to get the heaviest rains 9/10 times we get showery/occasionally heavy precip and jersey, upstate,ny is getting it instead. Same with the winter storms. I could pretty much say if were in the bullseye that new jersey, upstate,ny gets the heavy rain while were hit and miss showers We're going to get a lot of rain too. Trust me. And significantly more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 We're going to get a lot of rain too. Trust me. And significantly more wind. Jim you live in long beach right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 All that sub-tropical moisture is going to get lifted over a stationary coastal front right through our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Usually when long island is in the bullseye to get the heaviest rains 9/10 times we get showery/occasionally heavy precip and jersey, upstate,ny is getting it instead. Same with the winter storms. I could pretty much say if were in the bullseye that new jersey, upstate,ny gets the heavy rain while were hit and miss showers The difference here is the stationary front across the area as the low gets going over the southeast coast. With the moisture feed being well established, there could be good rainfall amounts even before the actual main show with the low itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Jim you live in long beach right? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The difference here is the stationary front across the area as the low gets going over the southeast coast. With the moisture feed being well established, there could be good rainfall amounts even before the actual main show with the low itself. yup but most of that may end up to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 yup but most of that may end up to our west. make sure to cover your rain gauge with leaves, so you can underrecord your rainfall to verify your forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yup. My aunt lives in one of those condos right on the boardwalk, I live near Riis park hoping I can get down there and take some pics etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 just like a storm to track its been soooooooo long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM looks same to slightly west of the previous run. Should provide heavy rain and good wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Around a 980mb surface low sitting off Atlantic City on the 12z NAM at 09z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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