Isotherm Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow. 980 bomb over PA with major mountain snows on the GFS. Talk about a drought reverser here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That H5 synoptic evolution deserves a mother of god post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The GFS has 60+kt winds at 925mb coming ashore in NJ at 00z Monday. Yikes I think the wind aspect could be quite ferocious in some places if the low blows up and approaches the right way. Just right of the track could be in for a fun few hours at least of torrential rain and very strong wind, maybe over 60 mph if we can get good convective transfer to the ground. The low level jet looks really powerful. Luckily the ground is dry, but the early leaf out could cause problems with downed trees either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That was a pretty sweet run. I almost forgot coastal lows can form out east after this pathetic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow. 980 bomb over PA with major mountain snows on the GFS. Talk about a drought reverser here. Low actually deepens to 977mb over SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS now further west and more bombed out than any 21z SREF member. Nice soaking and some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The evolution of this storm is perfection. I will gladly take my mnt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That H5 synoptic evolution deserves a mother of god post. 12z the northern stream was too far east to pull in the southern shortwave without shredding it. This run digs H5 about 100 miles southwest, and it is right in the perfect spot for a phase at hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That was a pretty sweet run. I almost forgot coastal lows can form out east after this pathetic winter. Ha -- it seems like it has been a while for sure. Early guidance this evening is very impressive. Looks like a firehose type setup if the GFS is right as the best lift and moisture move very slowly through the area as the upper level features close off. Impressive dynamics (h85 winds below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 So the best winds and rains would come if the low comes to our sw or west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Ha -- it seems like it has been a while for sure. Early guidance this evening is very impressive. Looks like a firehose type setup if the GFS is right as the best lift and moisture move very slowly through the area as the upper level features close off. Impressive dynamics (h85 winds below) I hadn't been paying much attention at all, but it seems the UK/EC led the way once again. Seriously though...I have been in severe mode now for a while. Going to be fun to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Holy man that thing is a monster...not too often do you see the 528 dm contour involved like that in a late April storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Sudden jump in guidance could (key word being could -- as is the case with baroclinic I haven't been following this too closely over the last several days)be attributed to the "northern stream" shortwave coming ashore this evening just north of the International Border in the Pac NW. That's the feature that eventually races south and east and phases with the piece of energy digging into the Gulf. Speaking of -- it has certainly been a while since we've seen a phased system with the southermost entity digging into the Gulf of Mexico. The entire upper air orientation already looks favorable for a major storm system at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It really has been a while, I wasn't even sure something like this was even possible anymore. First time in a long time, we have a big east coast storm with several days of unsettled conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 WOW...just looked at the GFS models...IMPRESSIVE to say the least...I like the fact how it slows the front down...Lancaster/Chester county PA severe storms can't be ruled out between 6-9 pm Saturday...rain doesn't even hit the NJ coast now until late saturday night...the low moving up the delaware river sunday night is also impressive. Crazy winds at the shore possibly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Saw your tweet, you should be getting excited about baroclinic instability! I think the last time we saw it was October 29, 2011. I hadn't been paying much attention at all, but it seems the UK/EC led the way once again. Seriously though...I have been in severe mode now for a while. Going to be fun to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well to add to the model party tonight the new canadain (black and white version) is now much like the nam right up the coast then turning into southern new England. it Would not surprise me one bit if the euro tonight goes closer to the GFS a few days ago it did have a inland solution but not this strong. if the GFS is right eastern pa is talking 3-6 inches of rain with a flow like it has. with 60 mph gust there would even be power outages and coastal beach erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Saw your tweet, you should be getting excited about baroclinic instability! I think the last time we saw it was October 29, 2011. Who are you on twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Saw your tweet, you should be getting excited about baroclinic instability! I think the last time we saw it was October 29, 2011. And you are right...the freak October Nor'easter was the last. I need my coastal low fix. This winter has been a joke that can't be described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Perfect track for us in terms of the heavy rain and winds. Too bad this is ain't January or else we would of been in a huge blizzard with this track possibly bring mixing issues around the coast. I am just excited with the thunderstorm threat on Saturday. This coming storm at least all of the city and coast will not see any snow in late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Perfect track for us in terms of the heavy rain and winds. Too bad this is ain't January or else we would of been in a huge blizzard with this track possibly bring mixing issues around the coast. I am just excited with the thunderstorm threat on Saturday. This coming storm at least all of the city and coast will not see any snow in late April. I don't see how you would get snow if the storm goes up the Delaware river even in January, certainly not on the coast. The fun part about having this storm in mid April (if it plays out that way) is that the track would give us the best dynamics, the best winds, heavy rains, and there's never that "what if this was winter" question. Even in winter this would be rain most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I like the severe potential over central PA moreso than NJ/NYC area...nam/gfs just seems too slow and all we'd get is the leftovers from whatever blows up over the typical stormy PA areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I like the severe potential over central PA moreso than NJ/NYC area...nam/gfs just seems too slow and all we'd get is the leftovers from whatever blows up over the typical stormy PA areas... I agree on that if the nam and GFS are right with the slowing of the storms it is possible anyone who gets the severe storms sees very heavy rain fall exceeding 1 inch now. Then as it slowly does get to east pa then jersey we would then be slowly be starting to come into the rain from the coastal storm even well out ahead of it. despite the drought flash flooding is becoming a concern for smaller stream creeks and pounding of the usual roadways with poor drainage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 KISP NAM BUFKIT soudning for 1200 UTC April 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 So much for me saying the euro was too extreme. I leave for 6 hrs and come back to the gfs showing a monster noreaster. Pretty big changes from its last run with the northern stream roaring in and curling this thing up and in to the coast.. I feel like It's always the northern stream that has the biggest question mark and can throw a model way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro already a bit more robust with the northern stream through 36. Could mean a stronger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro also to mention is showing an even better gulf set up low with the low about to deepen much faster thanks to the northern stream being better as well. already a 1000 low in the gulf with phasing just about to or getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 big time phase at 72. 996mb on the outer banks with heavy rain all over I-95 Hr 78 - QPF bullseye over the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Both the 6z NAM and GFS now have 3"-4" of rain for NYC and the area. Euro and the rest of the globals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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