Amped Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Saturday has the best chance for that to happen as the cold front moves through. Models show decent precip (1/4 to 1/2") with slightly negative LI and marginal CAPE/bulk shear. Don't think he was talking about severe just regular thunder. Usually present in those strong fronts. The further west it comes the more likely it'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It only makes sense we'll go from prolonged drought conditions to a wind-whipped deluge. I fully expect either upper 90s the following week or snow. 2012 is really happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Don't think he was talking about severe just regular thunder. Usually present in those strong fronts. The further west it comes the more likely it'll be. The risk of severe is low in this case, but there should still be regular thunderstorms which is what I was pointing out. If the QPF amounts modeled verify there would be heavy rain with these thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 21z SREF went significantly east... it's not worth much at hour 81-87, but it just keeps flip flopping between solutions. Definitely not the first time it's done that this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 21z SREF went significantly east... it's not worth much at hour 81-87, but it just keeps flip flopping between solutions. Definitely not the first time it's done that this year... SREF has hinted at every possible solution with this storm like every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 SREF has hinted at every possible solution with this storm like every other model. The other models haven't gone from one scenario to another with each run like the SREF tends to do on occasion. The other models at least maintain some level of consistency between run to run instead of jumping back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM through 51 is considerably slower with the front and storms also looks stronger with frontal convection lets see where this leads us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM through 51 is considerably slower with the front and storms also looks stronger with frontal convection lets see where this leads us. Looks like it has a little more negative tilt. I'd think this run probably comes out stronger and further west with the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks like NAM is about to cave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks like NAM is about to cave as well. This is a big step towards the stronger models but very interesting to see a stalled to slow moving line of storms if instability is still good this run there could be locally high amounts with that convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 That looks like a winter map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised if this had an 'eye-like' feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Making the turn up the coast on hour 78. This run would be a big soaker if it continued beyond hour 84. If only we had this storm and pattern change in January instead of April... the pattern finally produces a decent storm when it's too late in the season to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM is unleashing it's classic crazy run. Close to 3" of rain through hour 84 with more coming. A classic and powerful noreaster on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM has 1.75"-2" of rain between hours 78 and 84 alone. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 I don't have access to soundings from phone, but I would imagine the NAM has gale force winds at least with big time coastal erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I like the way this storm looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Snowstorm for the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 New moon cycle coincides right when this coastal affects our area. The highest daily tide for the month of April this year is Saturday and Sunday of this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Nice...NAM has some convection along the cold front which agrees with the SREF mean's severe probabilities. We should see at least a 5% risk from SPC on the new Day 2 Outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 We can take this with a grain of salt but some of the nam's eta members of the sref have a coastal bomb just like the nam if not stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 How's the wind situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 How's the wind situation? The NAM has 25-30kts at 10m. But I am more interested in the very impressive low level jet. Look at H85 temperatures (top right) -- you can almost tell where the nose of it is from that image itself. Good thermal packing too directly over NYC with 0c H85 temps over NW NJ and 10c H85 temps over Long Island. With a 988mb surface low due south of Long Island and the upper air system closing off aloft to our west -- the dynamics and low level moisture feed will be ripped northwest towards our area. A pretty good set up for high rain amounts and widespread flooding if it weren't for the drought we are in (we could still see some -- but with a wet ground or above normal precip departures we would be in real trouble should the NAM verify). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Here comes the GFS possibly about to show a monster the southern system is scientifically faster while the front is significantly slower. Lets see what happens here might show a monster of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 A monster at 69 hours on the GFS -- the LLJ is going crazy...this is looking like a terrific setup for heavy rainfall in our area. You could argue the GFS might even tug it a little bit west of us given the orientation at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The GFS has 60+kt winds at 925mb coming ashore in NJ at 00z Monday. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS 72hrs 988mb along NC coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow is all I can say to this run H5= perfect surface he beautiful This is a major storm set up on the GFS. hour 72 that is some serious rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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