ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Seems like most models are moving in the rainy phased solution. Can't wait for some rain! The path of the low that the euro ensembles and the operational have would also be pretty windy and also some big waves and coastal flooding. We are on an astonomically high tide cycle because of the new moon. Highest tide cycle is on Saturday night (the day of the actual new moon)... With the right path, this storm has a chance of beach and coastal issues. Storm is coming in at the highest tide cycle possible in any given month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 First American model caves. The new srefs are way west and through hour 87 alone, they have over 1" of precip into NYC. no way we get rain this weekend... it hasn't rained in so long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 no way we get rain this weekend... it hasn't rained in so long! Whenever I hear that on this board, I cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 no way we get rain this weekend... it hasn't rained in so long! Dry begets dry...until it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well let's hope this trend is real as 1) We need the rain, and 2)We haven't had any exciting weather since October, and 3) It'd be nice to knock the pollen levels down. Trees around here are pretty much 80% leafed out now, on par for early May standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean are nearly identical to Euro op. Also notice higher spread to west of slp track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The path of the low that the euro ensembles and the operational have would also be pretty windy and also some big waves and coastal flooding. We are on an astonomically high tide cycle because of the new moon. Highest tide cycle is on Saturday night (the day of the actual new moon)... With the right path, this storm has a chance of beach and coastal issues. Storm is coming in at the highest tide cycle possible in any given month. Except May 6th, which is the highest tide cycle of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean are nearly identical to Euro op. Also notice higher spread to west of slp track: The ensembles also have 2"-2.50" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Hope the wind and surf really crank up, haven't been on rockaway beach watching a storm since Irene. March 13 2010 pt2 will do. Hopefully we get some more rain now as this will help but not break the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the pool of above normal sst's is going to work in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the pool of above normal sst's is going to work in our favor Intensify storms more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 It seems the part of the forecast with the highest confidence is that moderate rain/thunderstorms are likely on Saturday afternoon/evening... wouldn't surprise me if SPC adds a 5% or maybe a low-end 15% risk at most for Saturday; the parameters on the NAM are marginally favorable for locally strong storms, with the models also supporting at least 1/4 to 1/2" QPF with the cold front not including whatever falls with the developing low afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Intensify storms more? well, it already is "helping" since the models are initialized with current sst's there's definitely more latent heat and moisture than would be available if sst's were closer to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the nam and gfs remain in good agreement at the moment with a delayed phase . I think the phased bomb solution is a bit unrealistic. Im a big time euro fan, but it has had moments at this range where it phases things too early. I'd look for it to back off at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Hopefully this turns out to be a pretty cool storm. Warm SSTs will be helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the nam and gfs remain in good agreement at the moment with a delayed phase . I think the phased bomb solution is a bit unrealistic. Im a big time euro fan, but it has had moments at this range where it phases things too early. I'd look for it to back off at 0z The ECM exaggerated storms involving phasing in several cases this winter, although it obviously wasn't the case every time. February 24 is a good example of that, the GFS/NAM had much less phasing than the ECM, which backed down only in the short range. The NAM/GFS may be too far east in this case, but I would not be surprised at all if the ECM ends up being too amplified. A scenario close to the 0z CMC or a bit west of the 12z CMC seems to be a reasonable middle solution IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 And the UKMET and the JMA? All of which have better accuracy ratings at the moment than the GFS. All of which show nothing like what the GFS does. Or will the number 4 model, the GFS cave to numbers 1, 2, and 3. In other words, I doubt the GFS's solution and I suspect highly that IT will be the one to cave completely. the nam and gfs remain in good agreement at the moment with a delayed phase . I think the phased bomb solution is a bit unrealistic. Im a big time euro fan, but it has had moments at this range where it phases things too early. I'd look for it to back off at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 the nam and gfs remain in good agreement at the moment with a delayed phase . I think the phased bomb solution is a bit unrealistic. Im a big time euro fan, but it has had moments at this range where it phases things too early. I'd look for it to back off at 0z GFS just made another step towards the euro. Now up to 1.25" of precip for NYC. Up from 12z, which had .63". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Maybe we can get a good rain out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 And the UKMET and the JMA? All of which have better accuracy ratings at the moment than the GFS. All of which show nothing like what the GFS does. Or will the number 4 model, the GFS cave to numbers 1, 2, and 3. In other words, I doubt the GFS's solution and I suspect highly that IT will be the one to cave completely. I dont care about model rankings, i don't look at the JMA and the ukie is the euros sister model. Im not saying any model will cave to another either. The euro has a much more robust phase than the 18z gfs. I've see the euro do this a lot, and it usually backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This GFS run pretty much leaves the NAM alone with showing almost no rain after the cold front. While I highly doubt the GFS completely changes and becomes fully phased like the 12z ECM shows, it's a step towards a middle solution where at least 1-3 inches of rain would fall, not the huge rainstorm shown on some models but enough to ease the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 This GFS run pretty much leaves the NAM alone with showing almost no rain after the cold front. While I highly doubt the GFS completely changes and becomes fully phased like the 12z ECM shows, it's a step towards a middle solution where at least 1-3 inches of rain would fall, not the huge rainstorm shown on some models but enough to ease the drought. Euro shows 2"-3". As do its ensembles. GFS is playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The latest GFS model is not even anywhere remotely close to what it was showing a couple days ago as far as rainfall is concerned.. This was thru the first 120 hrs... And this was the next 24 hrs after.. And now this is the most recent ... It is natural for the models to shift the QPF axis around but we are still nowhere even close to what this once was depicted as.. I really do not think the GFS is taking a step towards the ECM There really is no difference in low placement from 12 Z at 90 hours and 18 Z at 84 hrs ..The difference is in the QPF shield.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I agree with what you say here with the Euro tending to overdo things in the long range, but not usually at 4 days out and usually it does not have the next 2 best models doing nearly the exact same thing at 4 days out. This leads me to believe that the GFS is going to figure it out on the next run or two. It usually does figure it out by around day 3. I dont care about model rankings, i don't look at the JMA and the ukie is the euros sister model. Im not saying any model will cave to another either. The euro has a much more robust phase than the 18z gfs. I've see the euro do this a lot, and it usually backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Just an FYI, the ensemble spread is more west then the OP GFS run. There is little spread for a more east solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Latest HPC update just in. As to the issue with the euro of course it can be a bit over done at H5 and on the retrograde but I think the models are generally going to trend stronger with the low and slightly west towards the euro. It would seam reasonable with the warmer then normal Atlantic and gulf waters that the low develops faster. This can also Hint at a faster moving storm. but if the H5 is closer to closing off like the euro it would turn into the coast much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 4km NAM is with the Euro showing stronger Gulf development. It's showing gales south of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Is there still the possibility that there could be some thunderstorms with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Is there still the possibility that there could be some thunderstorms with this? Saturday has the best chance for that to happen as the cold front moves through. Models show decent precip (1/4 to 1/2") with slightly negative LI and marginal CAPE/bulk shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Saturday has the best chance for that to happen as the cold front moves through. Models show decent precip (1/4 to 1/2") with slightly negative LI and marginal CAPE/bulk shear. Good. Normally I would know but I have not seen the models in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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