ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z UKIE has a 990 low close to the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 That is the EXACT same location that the 0z run of the Euro had it in, at exactly the same time at 12z on Monday. It had it as a 992mb low instead of a 990mb low. Amazing similarities between the two models. 12z UKIE has a 990 low close to the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 EDIT: Color Maps show only about .75" of rain for NYC on GGEM and more for LI and SNE. Very similar to the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This is like tracking a snowstorm. I don't mind being on the western edge "(even though decent amounts of precip are still progged with these runs) at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 the phasing reminds me of boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 This is like tracking a snowstorm. I don't mind being on the western edge "(even though decent amounts of precip are still progged with these runs) at this time frame. Yeah. This is all normal reaction by the models. They are trying to place the exact placement of a storm thats caused by complicated phasing of multiple vorts. Could still go either way. Big time storm, down the middle, or even a miss east. But using the explanation of "all storms were a whiff this year, so this one will be too" is completely ludicrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS ensembles wetter than Op for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This still reminds me of the mid December rain storm where the models were way to slow with the southern vort then corrected to a coastal rain storm. the euro coming in so far through hour 60 looks faster with the southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah. This is all normal reaction by the models. They are trying to place the exact placement of a storm thats caused by complicated phasing of multiple vorts. Could still go either way. Big time storm, down the middle, or even a miss east. But using the explanation of "all storms were a whiff this year, so this one will be too" is completely ludicrous. While a dry pattern obviously doesn't directly affect large scale ridge/trough progression, there is definitely something to be said for pattern persistence. So IMO there is some validity to the argument that a storm is less likely to happen given the lack of coastal storms recently. The one advantage that this progged event has compared to the past 4 months is the base La Nina state is finally changing. We've seen some major negative SOI dailies in the past few weeks, and that should eventially have an impact on the weather. Thus, it is possible we're about to reverse the dry pattern given the decreasing SOI and transitioning out of the La Nina event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The euro through 84 is about 30-40 miles west with moderate to heavy precipitation making it into pa even has the back edge being considerably more west. I think all models will catch on to a faster southern system soon. really not much of a reason for it to be slow or stall in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 on the 12z Euro NYC area is in the general 1.50-2.00 range with higher amounts just to the northeast of 2-2.50. southwest of NYC area were talking about 1.25-maybe 1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah. Euro is a very nice rainstorm for our area. Came west also and has a 992 low hugging the coast. Very similar to the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 on the 12z Euro NYC area is in the general 1.50-2.00 range with higher amounts just to the northeast of 2-2.50. southwest of NYC area were talking about 1.25-maybe 1.75 Looks like it has a bit more if you factor in the rains from the fropa as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like it has a bit more if you factor in the rains from the fropa as well. yup that is true. I don't think it would get much if any more west then this but now we wait for the other models to catch on to a faster southern system 12Z GFS started to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yeah. Euro is a very nice rainstorm for our area. Came west also and has a 992 low hugging the coast. Very similar to the UKIE. If we can get the low to phase a little sooner and cut to the west, maybe into NJ, we can get a nice windstorm here too. Remember, the 3/13/10 storm was much the same way, in that it developed fast off the Delmarva and then curved in to the NNW. The extreme winds were almost completely unforecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 If we can get the low to phase a little sooner and cut to the west, maybe into NJ, we can get a nice windstorm here too. Remember, the 3/13/10 storm was much the same way, in that it developed fast off the Delmarva and then curved in to the NNW. The extreme winds were almost completely unforecasted. That would be awesome, great storm that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Raleighwx, has it down to 988mb low over Jersey shore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 That would be awesome, great storm that was The best low level jet and powerful dynamics will be just east of the low. It won't take much to mix it down if there's some convection in there, and there does look to be a high over the Maritimes, 1030mb or so, that could provide a decent gradient. If the low cuts off and curls back NNW, I'd be on the lookout just east of the track for some very strong gusts. That's exactly what happened in the March 2010 storm-Long Island was under that jet for hours, and the low's movement plus quick development trained it over the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Maybe this storm will be a pattern changer since we haven't seen anything like this in several months dating back to October. I still want some consensus between foreign and american models, I'm still going for no more than .75-1" and most of that may be from the FROP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The best low level jet and powerful dynamics will be just east of the low. It won't take much to mix it down if there's some convection in there, and there does look to be a high over the Maritimes, 1030mb or so, that could provide a decent gradient. If the low cuts off and curls back NNW, I'd be on the lookout just east of the track for some very strong gusts. That's exactly what happened in the March 2010 storm-Long Island was under that jet for hours, and the low's movement plus quick development trained it over the same area. Might be more damage to if this happened, we are fully leafed out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Maybe this storm will be a pattern changer since we haven't seen anything like this in several months dating back to October. I still want some consensus between foreign and american models, I'm still going for no more than .75-1" and most of that may be from the FROP. over the last decade or so when we had any dry periods it ended with a deluge...I hope it doesn't come to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Might be more damage to if this happened, we are fully leafed out now. We've been dry for a long enough period of time that the soils won't be saturated with the rain. That hurt us a lot during that storm. I was seeing trees literally keel over in that storm. It would be hard to match up those kind of gusts again but I could see 50-60 mph gusts in spots if we see the right track and if we see a ramping up of the intensity as it comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Raleighwx, has it down to 988mb low over Jersey shore: Very similar to the UKIE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 We've been dry for a long enough period of time that the soils won't be saturated with the rain. That hurt us a lot during that storm. I was seeing trees literally keel over in that storm. It would be hard to match up those kind of gusts again but I could see 50-60 mph gusts in spots if we see the right track and if we see a ramping up of the intensity as it comes in. Yeah true, only thing in worried about is this will def help the drought but what if thIs is all the rain for a while. And with a warm up coming up again we can be right back where we started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well the good thing is as we start getting into may and summertime patterns we will hopefully start getting more storms rather than these dry cold fronts that keep coming through. Yeah true, only thing in worried about is this will def help the drought but what if thIs is all the rain for a while. And with a warm up coming up again we can be right back where we started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Don't see more than 1.00" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 over the last decade or so when we had any dry periods it ended with a deluge...I hope it doesn't come to that... So very true. I always said nature balances itself out, however, it's done lately via extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z Euro Ensemble mean is still very wet for NYC. 2"-2.50" of precip. The low pressure rides through NYC and its more consolidated on this run, suggesting the spread between the members is shrinking. Low forms over the Delmarva. Heads NNE through hour 90 and then by hour 96 it curls into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 First American model caves. The new srefs are way west and through hour 87 alone, they have over 1" of precip into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Seems like most models are moving in the rainy phased solution. Can't wait for some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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