NEG NAO Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The gfs ensembles disagree with the operational as well. The euro ensemble mean has a 990's low hugging the coast. doesn't it make more sense to go with the model that fits the pattern so far this year ? The GFS OP fits the pattern - no phasing or phasing to far east- GFS OP is the way to go in this situation ............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 And the drought continues? Looks like another torch incoming end of April/early May as well, would rapidly dry out the soils as the evaporation rate will continue to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 doesn't it make more sense to go with the model that fits the pattern so far this year ? The GFS OP fits the pattern - no phasing or phasing to far east- GFS OP is the way to go in this situation ............ This is our best chance since like november to get any kind of east coast cyclogenesis. As you said tho pattern since fall and winter now into spring has been against that, and although this does have model support in bringing copious amounts of rain to our region i think as we get closer the storm is gonna become less of an event. The storm may deliver pockets of "heavier" rainfall but would be shocked if it ended up being a big system or "drought buster" for the northeast but we'll see i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 And the drought continues? Looks like another torch incoming end of April/early May as well, would rapidly dry out the soils as the evaporation rate will continue to increase. More heat? Awesome bring on the outdoor/beach weather thats great news to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Hopefully the trends for a later phase are wrong. We need the coastal to develop in time or it's a quick frontal passage and some showers most likely. Nothing even close to drought denting/busting. As storms like these become more rare as we go into May and towards a summer pattern, it would be nice to see a storm verify now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 dry begets dry works for southern areas in midsummer... not in nyc in april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sounds like we've got a good ol' Euro vs. GFS setup here. Who has been verifying better recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Overnight model summary: Euro: 2.50" for NYC. Over 3" for LI GGEM: 1.75" for NYC. More as you head east. 4"-5" for eastern LI UKIE: has a bomb. Definitely 3" or so of rain Euro Ensembles: Very wet..3"-4" for NYC All the American models, GFS, NAM, SREFS, are all misses to the east. The gfs ensembles are closer to the euro. Most members give a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 keep the rain away until Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Thanks! Seems like an all or nothing scenario. Either we get a miss and see less than .5" or we get 2-4" if we get the coastal storm/phase Overnight model summary: Euro: 2.50" for NYC. Over 3" for LI GGEM: 1.75" for NYC. More as you head east. 4"-5" for eastern LI UKIE: has a bomb. Definitely 3" or so of rain Euro Ensembles: Very wet..3"-4" for NYC All the American models, GFS, NAM, SREFS, are all misses to the east. The gfs ensembles are closer to the euro. Most members give a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Who are you talking to? keep the rain away until Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Dry begats dry. Yeap, in a drought, leave it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Thanks! Seems like an all or nothing scenario. Either we get a miss and see less than .5" or we get 2-4" if we get the coastal storm/phase In a normal situation, the GFS would be thrown out as the extreme outlier. But in a year like this, we have to take it into account because the dryness with the fast progressive pattern has been winning every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 DGEX now has the storm whiffing east and a big ridge coming over the top of the pattern shortly afterwards with 80 F temps again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 DGEX now has the storm whiffing east and a big ridge coming over the top of the pattern shortly afterwards with 80 F temps again. Its had the storm whiffing east since yesterday's 6z run. 3 runs in a row now, which makes perfect sense since the NAM and GFS are whiffs and the dgex uses both the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I want the foreign models to clobber the American ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 I want the foreign models to clobber the American ones. NAM continues to be a whiff east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NAM shows some showers with the front and thats it, fits the pattern well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NAM shows some showers with the front and thats it, fits the pattern well. wow-worlds apart from the Euro and other foreigns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS is coming in closer to the coast and with better amplification of the trough at 84 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yes it did. I assume it will come even further west on future runs. It is currently ranked 4th in this time range behind even the JMA. I guess it earned this mark. Looks like the 12z GFS is coming in closer to the coast and with better amplification of the trough at 84 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 What are the Euro models showing as far as timing? 12z GFS looks to me like later Saturday into Saturday night and by Sunday morning the rain is pretty much gone, which would be ideal for my weekend plans...is this the likely timeframe we are looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS caving to the euro. Now gives NYC .75" and LI more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like GFS is beginning to cave to the European competition. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Will see. If the foreign models trend towards this idea, then the GFS may not be as bad. Each regime is different for each model. Contrary to what some are saying here with regards to same old same old, there is a complex interaction with a wave packet here emanating from the Pacific. Models are going to struggle with the little features. Yes it did. I assume it will come even further west on future runs. It is currently ranked 4th in this time range behind even the JMA. I guess it earned this mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS trying to go back to it's original solution just not as strong. in a complicated set up like this you had to expect the models to show every possible solution since models are not perfect. as for the dryness if you remember there was a moderate to major rain storm that came up the coast back in December which gave 2 to 3 inches of rain fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Big test for the upgraded GFS set to go operational in May. DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE EAST...WHERE THE 00Z GFS IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH CYCLONE TRACK AND TROUGH PROGRESSION...OUTPACING ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO IT COULD NOT BE USED. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WAS USED FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...DUE TO ISSUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yes, I read this as well. It seems that the parallel run of the GFS is handling this situation better. Is this run of the model available anywhere? Big test for the upgraded GFS set to go operational in May. DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE EAST...WHERE THE 00Z GFS IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH CYCLONE TRACK AND TROUGH PROGRESSION...OUTPACING ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO IT COULD NOT BE USED. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WAS USED FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...DUE TO ISSUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Yes, I read this as well. It seems that the parallel run of the GFS is handling this situation better. Is this run of the model available anywhere? Unfortunately, what the HPC got to see last night did not update on the public site. The new GFS is the PRX and is blank on the latest 0z run. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/MAPS.zo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Thank you. Unfortunately, what the HPC got to see last night did not update on the public site. The new GFS is the PRX and is blank on the latest 0z run. http://www.emc.ncep....TS/MAPS.zo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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