mob1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Boom really starting to get going now past few hours. These are extremely misleading as they only show area of biggest pressure drops, use the one tmagan is posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Guys 1 mb is not going to be a huge difference. Its not going to bomb 10-15 mb deeper than the high res models are showing. Was never thinking it would was just commenting on the very nice development last hour. Just seamed as if the stronger development was occurring a bit sooner with a 3mb drop in the last 2 hours. Can't wait to see theses heavy rain bands tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Pretty good area of moderate rain is coming ashore in Suffolk county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Man SPC WRF nails you guys tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 These are extremely misleading as they only show area of biggest pressure drops, use the one tmagan is posting. That is the point just showing 3hr pressure change the one he post is actual surface pressure at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This storm looks to gradually deepen, not bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 That is the point just showing 3hr pressure change the one he post is actual surface pressure at that time. Look how far NE the area of greatest pressure drop is while where the storm is actually located there isn't nearly that big a drop. Even if storm didn't strengthen at all you would see a pressure drop towards the general direction it's moving because that are is just getting closer to the center of low pressure so naturally it'll drop. This map gets posted by Weenies during every winter storm to show that the storm is further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Man SPC WRF nails you guys tonight. nails who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 nails who? NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Look how far NE the area of greatest pressure drop is while where the storm is actually located there isn't nearly that big a drop. Even if storm didn't strengthen at all you would see a pressure drop towards the general direction it's moving because that are is just getting closer to the center of low pressure so naturally it'll drop. This map gets posted by Weenies during every winter storm to show that the storm is further east You seem to think it is wrong of what it is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 You seem to think it is wrong of what it is showing. I'm not saying that map is wrong just that they don't indicate how much the storm is really strengthening, use 3 hours worth of the maps tmagan is postings and that'll give you a much more accurate 3 hour pressure drop of the actual storm. Anyway, the storm is gradually intensifying, there's no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 aproaching half an inch of rain, calm winds with the strong inversion. We need to get into the warm sector inorder to tap into the winds associated with the LLJ, temps in the 40s isnt going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm not saying that map is wrong just that they don't indicate how much the storm is really strengthening, use 3 hours worth of the maps tmagan is postings and that'll give you a much more accurate 3 hour pressure drop of the actual storm. Anyway, the storm is gradually intensifying, there's no denying that. This is pulled from Unisys site its a good tool to use not sure what the big deal is. ''Contour plot of the change in pressure from the current hour to 3 hours previous for the contiguous US. This is a good indicator of the movement and intensification of pressure systems. If the pressure change is negative in the region of a low pressure system (see above chart), the low is deepening. If the negative pressure change is out in front of the low pressure system, it indicates movement. The location of the maximum pressure drops indicate the possible direction of the low pressure system.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 really calm, id be shocked if your completely calm but the winds are light now. just to let you know, both MOS guidance products indicate sustained winds 30-35 mph around 11pm with gusts to 45 or 50. I know thats not what you guys want, but thats still decent winds. aproaching half an inch of rain, calm winds with the strong inversion. We need to get into the warm sector inorder to tap into the winds associated with the LLJ, temps in the 40s isnt going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 NYC area. It takes the heaviest bands just east of the city and into extreme NE NJ. It also keeps rain for at least part of the area through hrs 23-24. At hr 12 the banding almost resembles a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 And by calling this a non-event before what I mean is that in any normal year with normal precip this would have just been another storm. It's making headlines because its the only game in town for the past few months and because of the snow potential in Western PA/NY. If we manange to squeeze out 4-5" of rain instead of the forecasted 2.5-3.5" we could still see some river flooding, but it won't be anything like the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I don't think the winds were supposed to be strong until the evening hours. The WRF keeps light winds until at least 0z, with a wind gust potential of 45-50 knots around 5z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The NAM is doing a good job with the storm. It's within 1-2 mb of the low pressure from it's 12z forecast. It takes the low down to 984 mb as it crosses near Philly early on Monday morning. So maybe we'll see it get down to 982-984 mb before the low starts to fill shortly after. I think that this will be the deepest April low in the NE since the Tax day storm that bottomed below 970 mb in 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 18Z Observations Does that say its down to 991? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Working here in New Brunswick, been steady light rain for a while, a couple of near moderate spurts when I have been able to peek outside...theater had power dim for a second but I'm guessing someone hit a pole or something cause have only seen winds gust to over 20 by my estimate once with one of the near moderate batches. Jon in Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does that say its down to 991? 996 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does that say its down to 991? Looks like 990mb to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I have to admit it has been a long time since I have seen a rain shield this solid on radar, wish it was snow http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The NAM is doing a good job with the storm. It's within 1-2 mb of the low pressure from it's 12z forecast. It takes the low down to 984 mb as it crosses near Philly early on Monday morning. So maybe we'll see it get down to 982-984 mb before the low starts to fill shortly after. I think that this will be the deepest April low in the NE since the Tax day storm that bottomed below 970 mb in 2007. o yes, the tax day storm dumped 1-2 feet of snow in central NY, what a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 SPC site is low res and showing a broad area of 995mb pressure, one would have to think that the actual minimum pressure is lower than that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Does that say its down to 991? There is a 994 mb bouy report south of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The 16Z HRRR shows 10 m wind gusts around 01-03 UTC reaching 35-50kts from NYC south and westward SE of I-95. I've never used the HRRR for wind gusts before, so we'll see, but seems pretty plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like 990mb to me. It shows "96" in eastern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It shows "96" in eastern North Carolina. Cape Hatteras was reporting 994.4 last hour, I'm assuming 994 should be a good estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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