NYCSuburbs Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 As long as the cold front manages to move through the area on Saturday, perhaps we could get moderate rain and some thunderstorm action with the front... the NAM shows some instability along with a line of moderate rain, along with the GFS which despite the coastal low staying mostly to the east still has rain with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 18z gfs shows what happens when we get no phase, the pattern of the past 6 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 New gfs gives less than. 5" now and barely anything after Saturday here is the 72 hour precip 18z gfs prior to tuesday really drying out here missing us - don't be surprised if it keeps showing a drier solution fits the current pattern http://raleighwx.ame...8zgfsp72138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 here is the 72 hour precip 18z gfs prior to tuesday really drying out here missing us - don't be surprised if it keeps showing a drier solution fits the current pattern http://raleighwx.ame...8zgfsp72138.gif 18ZGFS? Really? Oh Really? Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 At day 5 right now even the JMA is verifying better than the GFS and the JMA has one hell of a storm for us, into the 980's south of us with over 4 inches of rain here. http://www.emc.ncep....b/index12z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 If we get more than .75" I will be suprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 18z gfs shows what happens when we get no phase, the pattern of the past 6 months It phases, but its just too far east. Maybe we will get rain in May 18ZGFS? Really? Oh Really? Enough said. It's already been debunked that the 18z gfs is not a bad run. Its just as useful as the rest of its runs. If it was useless than they wouldn't run it 365 times a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 18z gfs shows what happens when we get no phase, the pattern of the past 6 months It phases but a bit late, hence why its a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 At day 5 right now even the JMA is verifying better than the GFS and the JMA has one hell of a storm for us, into the 980's south of us with over 4 inches of rain here. http://www.emc.ncep....b/index12z.html DGEX actually showed a big hit yesterday with cold 850 temps. Didn't want to bring it up because it would require me confessing I look at the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 At least 7 of the 18z GFS ensemble member on the new 18z run just in have 1 inch + of rain. Hence today's rain being more west yes it was light but it is a signal of the slower pattern setting up. Like the HPC I do not think this will be as far east as latest run advertise maybe not the 3 inches originally shown on the models. But with a slow moving front and southern energy moving out of the south close to the same time it is going to be a close call chances are even by Friday we may just start ironing out the full details. I think we will at least see some relief to the dry weather. There is Nothing wrong with any run of a model they are no different then any other one of there runs with the exception of them showing different solution's each run. The reason we are seeing the models flipping alot the past several days is simple we have been in a dry and warmer pattern for a long period of time now we are changing to a somewhat slower pattern. this combined with several feature playing a roll in the potential weekend storm makes it complicated for the models to get a good handle on things. This is not unusual and in fact for the last year or so we have seen this several times some have turned into major rain storms others have turned into nothing more then showers. Chances are when you are in a dry pattern the models are likely to be overdone somewhat but are also likely to carry over the dry pattern and shown dryer and weaker results which may not always necessary be the end result. The best thing we can do right now is proceed with caution and hang on tight for a bit longer before locking in on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This weekend is a very difficult forecast, and I'd be more cautious than usual about predicting big rains b//c we've been locked in a persistent, dry pattern for months now. The toughest forecast is always, "will this be the storm to break the drought?", or at least significantly reverse it. MJO impulse low amplitude in phase 1-2 suggests the East Coast should get some precipitation, but I'm concerned it may not be that much. We'll see what later runs show, but as of now, I'd lean toward the less phased scenario given pattern persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 This weekend is a very difficult forecast, and I'd be more cautious than usual about predicting big rains b//c we've been locked in a persistent, dry pattern for months now. The toughest forecast is always, "will this be the storm to break the drought?", or at least significantly reverse it. MJO impulse low amplitude in phase 1-2 suggests the East Coast should get some precipitation, but I'm concerned it may not be that much. We'll see what later runs show, but as of now, I'd lean toward the less phased scenario given pattern persistence. Great post - not easy breaking a persistent pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0z NAM looks drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0z NAM looks drier. So it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 So it begins... Looks like it's down to just the cold front on this run, with the southern low pressure staying well to the south at least as of hour 84 (could come up the coast later, but I don't know for sure). The cold front could still bring moderate rain and thunderstorms as long as this doesn't trend drier as well, but I'm still not buying into those very amplified solutions, and while I think that the low should come up the coast with at least moderate rain, it wouldn't surprise me if given the trends with this pattern, this storm doesn't end up as anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 It appears the Nam right now is the fastest with the cold front while it has been a good model overall lately. One must take in account it was the most east with today's disturbance. As to what pops with the cold front is becoming an interesting feature if the nam is right some decent cape would develop. In fact this run puts out 1000-1500 cape. Over all I think we are at least trending towards a good chance for a slight risk severe wx day for Saturday. Don't be surprised if you see localized heavy amounts from storms on Saturday The nam is putting out a PW value of 1.2-1.4 setting up promoting a heavy rain fall threat with storms Which I generally agree with. That is just one aspect starting to come together As we get to the end of the nam run the moisture flow starts to set up out of the gulf but it is a tad to far east to do us any good. However this is not a bad thing this far out. While it may appear it is becoming less likely for the more amped solutions of the models to pan out if the front where to stall close enough it would become the focal point for enhanced lifting and moisture from the Atlantic and the gulf. Which in help of the southern system riding along the front could spread some moisture back into the area how much and weather or not this will occur we will just have to wait and see a lot right now depends on the speed of the front and where precisely it stalls. The more west we see it stall the better the chance we have a moderate rain fall event. 1 last thing to point out is that we have seen a few cases not fully related to a precipitation event for us but the plain and mid west where the models at this range were to slow with southern energy and ended up correcting to a faster solution. While this is less likely to happen this go around it is something to watch out for on the models. so now we wait and see how the other models respond to the thunderstorm activity Saturday and the system in the south we should most likely come to a conclusion on Friday morning more so then tomorrow. as I stated in an earlier post this is a lot for the models to gasp and take time to see all models agree if they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0Z GFS waves goodbye to drought buster, exit stage right even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 0Z GFS waves goodbye to drought buster, exit stage right even. Models playing their game It could easily come back, if the NRN stream is slower andmore amped. too bad it's not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 00z GFS says what rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 00z GFS says what rain. Meant to say after the frontal passage. Seems to give us 1" of rain at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Dry begats dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Wow. actually have some rain falling here... 0.04 in... how exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 00Z ECMWF has a healthy east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 6Z GFS continues with the same idea in allowing the front to be progressive enough to have little impact on a coastal system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I fully expect the euro to lose phase by 12z....dry begets....great call.by Isotherms....progressive/mild pattern since nov 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I fully expect the euro to lose phase by 12z....dry begets....great call.by Isotherms....progressive/mild pattern since nov 1st It's not so much a phase as it is the southern stream fizzling out as the northern stream goes bonkers as it digs. Wish I had my laptop to post the images, but check out the h5 progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 So now it's either 1-2 inches of rain, something in between, or nothing for Monday... it just can't be easy to make a forecast. The GFS had times before when it lost a storm in the medium range, but there were also times when the less phased GFS/NAM had the right ideas and the foreign models were too amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Every overnight model has the coastal impacting our area except for the GFS. Ukie continues to have the strongest storm. Today should be the day where we can confidently get a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 There is still enough of western/phased solutions, on models and ensembles, to make this still undecided for our area. But the overall trend that last few days seems towards a later phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 The gfs ensembles disagree with the operational as well. The euro ensemble mean has a 990's low hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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