nycsnow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Ruc really try's to bomb out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 15Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Light rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Mist, windsheilds wipers needed, man its been ages since using them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This storm should really begin to pick up this afternoon, I would expect heaver rain by the late afternoon or early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 16Z Observations [Notice one of the buoys reporting a 61 knot sustained wind speed]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 A system like this will spread out once it gets stacked. What your seeing now has no bearing on whart will happen tomorrow for them. Even the models that have a further east low have a nasty heavy deform band over Pitts tomorrow Precip shield looks like it will end up further east then progged - can't see how Pittsburgh- WV and areas in western NY get as much as originally thought going by this movement hard to belive Johnstown PA and areas surrounding get enough precip for over 12 inches of snow...unless there is going to be some wrap around deal and a jog west http://www.wundergro...ze=2x&type=loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 16Z Observations [Notice one of the buoys reporting a 61 knot sustained wind speed]. this storm is gonna really start bombing out soon and start throwing some heavy rains up here by mid-late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 16Z Observations [Notice one of the buoys reporting a 61 knot sustained wind speed]. That's a drop of 2 mb in an hour. If this speed of the pressure drop continues, we may have a low going through rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 A system like this will spread out once it gets stacked. What your seeing now has no bearing on whart will happen tomorrow for them. Even the models that have a further east low have a nasty heavy deform band over Pitts tomorrow It is kind of amazing Pittsburgh has a chance of getting very close or above normal for the season in both total precip and snowfall if they receive what is forecasted. While we will still be well below normal especially in snowfall - anybody have any good web cam sites for western PA ? http://kamala.cod.ed...1.PIT.KPBZ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 That's a drop of 2 mb in an hour. If this speed of the pressure drop continues, we may have a low going through rapid intensification. Let's hope so, I am really hoping for a big wind event like we saw in March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Let's hope so, I am really hoping for a big wind event like we saw in March 2010. 100% certain it won't be anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Seems like the worst of the rain falls in about a 9-12 hour period. Not quite the 3 day event that was forecasted a few days ago. Looks like a non-event for the NYC area It has been so dry the chances of flooding are less than 10% with only 2-3" widespread. Did you expect to have wind swept heavy rain for a 72 hour period? What model run ever showed that? And what would constitute an "event" for the NYC area? What did you think models were showing before that now makes you think this will be a non event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This was never modeled to be a 3 day rainfall event. Seems like the worst of the rain falls in about a 9-12 hour period. Not quite the 3 day event that was forecasted a few days ago. Looks like a non-event for the NYC area It has been so dry the chances of flooding are less than 10% with only 2-3" widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Did you expect to have wind swept heavy rain for a 72 hour period? What model run ever showed that? And what would constitute an "event" for the NYC area? What did you think models were showing before that now makes you think this will be a non event? These people have to realize that every coastal low is not going to be December, 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Did you expect to have wind swept heavy rain for a 72 hour period? What model run ever showed that? And what would constitute an "event" for the NYC area? What did you think models were showing before that now makes you think this will be a non event? this is FAR from a non-event. a rain maker in the middle of a growing drought and a potent storm system immenent that a fairly untrue statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This is not a non event to anyone who thinks that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 This was never modeled to be a 3 day rainfall event. earlier in the week the GFS had the event disorganized and stalled out with a 72 hour period of light to moderate rain ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 'Nuff said. The model obviously was confused on how this system would be organizing. earlier in the week the GFS had the event disorganized and stalled out with a 72 hour period of light to moderate rain ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Seems like the worst of the rain falls in about a 9-12 hour period. Not quite the 3 day event that was forecasted a few days ago. Looks like a non-event for the NYC area It has been so dry the chances of flooding are less than 10% with only 2-3" widespread. With how dry conditions have been, soil permeability is quite low right now, increasing the runoff ratio of this precipitation and contributing to urban flood chances. I would argue that the recent dryness may contribute to the flood threat in a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 to add to that comment, this is the first time since october that were having this type of cyclogenesis on the east coast. lots of rain over a widespread area, some winds not a big producer though, and further inland a pretty big snow producer. this is by far and away the biggest event the past 5-6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 With how dry conditions have been, soil permeability is quite low right now, increasing the runoff ratio of this precipitation and contributing to urban flood chances. I would argue that the recent dryness may contribute to the flood threat in a way. kind of like what happens in Phoenix. This is more of a flash flood threat, not a river flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Already getting moderate rain on Long Island. Heaviest rain I have seen here in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 17Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Models never really showed a March 2010 type wind event with this, inversion is too strong and the PG is too weak. An event like March 2010 is a 5 to 6 SD event that happens once every 25 years + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 the headling story from this storm is going to be late tonight and all day tomorrow in the western half of PA with the major snowfall they are forecasted to receive - sure TWC will be covering it live - anybody have any links to live web cams from around Johnstown or that area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Per SPC mesoscale map This low is deepening faster then the models had already at 995 and clearly setting up for 994 within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Per SPC mesoscale map This low is deepening faster then the models had already at 995 and clearly setting up for 994 within the next hour. Where was it forecasted to be when it went below 995mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Guys 1 mb is not going to be a huge difference. Its not going to bomb 10-15 mb deeper than the high res models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Boom really starting to get going now past few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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