NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest gfs less than impressive with amounts, barely 2" for the city, less than that for most of NJ, also seems slower with the storm. Tonight's runs will definitely be interesting though It's lower with the totals, but as several posters just mentioned the models are likely underestimating the rain totals for this storm, especially the GFS which has a history with being too dry with storms like this one, as Analog96 noted and which I've also seen happen many times. With a storm this moist I would expect totals to easily end up above 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What about the winds? Forecast is standard 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40, anything higher expected? Could those be underestimated as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Moisture flowing from the Caribbean into our system. Beautiful thing when your in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 From my viewpoint, the 18z GEFS mean is similar to the 12z GEFS mean position wise. The 18z OP run seems to have had issues organizing the low center off the outerbanks, which every model seems to have come to a better agreement on this morning so lets see if the 00z runs follow suit or stay course with regards to the track and intensity. Again like I said, dont jump onto one runs QPF. Globals will almost always struggle especially with such a dynamic system. Latest gfs less than impressive with amounts, barely 2" for the city, less than that for most of NJ, also seems slower with the storm. Tonight's runs will definitely be interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 There you go... VCP 80 with 1 minute updates: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I was on my deck readin a book looking to the northwest and it is absolutely wonderful feeling so relaxed watching lightning in the distance, and tomorrows storm will just add to my happiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I was on my deck readin a book looking to the northwest and it is absolutely wonderful feeling so relaxed watching lightning in the distance, and tomorrows storm will just add to my happiness. Severe storms in southeast PA http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPHI/1204220045.wuus51.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 low looks well organized, i dont see multiple circulations in that analysis. 00Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 low looks well organized, i dont see multiple circulations in that analysis. so whens the heaviest rain suppose to be for long island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 so whens the heaviest rain suppose to be for long island? The western part (Nassau County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Starts to pick up tomorrow evening and heaviest lasts through sunrise monday. Could be a round of heavy showers/storms as the front/occluded front move north late morning. so whens the heaviest rain suppose to be for long island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warning here. Surprised to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warning here. Surprised to see. Lucky Annything good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Warning here. Surprised to see. I wouldn't be surprised based on the radar signature. It's also headed right towards you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 18Z RGEM Total Rain 18Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Those storms over C-NJ and S-NJ look pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Those storms over C-NJ and S-NJ look pretty strong. They are warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 They are warned. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Nice consalidated low center at 18 hours on the 00z nam over eastern NC. Looks 2 mb stronger than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 @RyanMaue: Graphics upgrades underway: NAM 18z Nor'easter over DC in 48 hrs. 985 mb low -- equiv to Cat1 hurricane trop pressure: http://t.co/eq82jCe1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 @RyanMaue: Graphics upgrades underway: NAM 18z Nor'easter over DC in 48 hrs. 985 mb low -- equiv to Cat1 hurricane trop pressure: http://t.co/eq82jCe1 That's pretty strong. When was the last time we had a storm with pressure lower than 990? BTW: Rangers suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised based on the radar signature. It's also headed right towards you. I'm not surprised having seen the radar signature - I just wasn't expecting storms to reach severe limits today. We'll see what happens when they get here. Anyway, 00Z NAM has really good 1000-500 hPa thickness diffluence over the area. That, combined with the right entrance region of the jetstreak and the strong easterly fetch looks solid for some intense rainfall. Should be exciting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I'm not surprised having seen the radar signature - I just wasn't expecting storms to reach severe limits today. We'll see what happens when they get here. Anyway, 00Z NAM has really good 1000-500 hPa thickness diffluence over the area. That, combined with the right entrance region of the jetstreak and the strong easterly fetch looks solid for some intense rainfall. Should be exciting to watch unfold. Global models will underestimate the intensity of the heavy bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 00z nam 24 hour position along Virginia coastal Plain at 987 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Cell Z8 on this loop has an interesting look to it, probably headed towards Morris and western Bergen/West Passaic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 so much for that....7 minute downpour and now its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 What a gorgeous storm; that's one helluva comma-head that develops on the 00z NAM w/ an intense deformation band. Finally some interesting weather to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah i was surprised there were warnings out. Upton hasnt put out anything yet so much for that....7 minute downpour and now its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Heavy 5 minute downpour and some pretty gusty winds, probably up to 35MPH. Not a single flash of lightning or rumble of thunder. lol. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.