CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS is really strong. Brings it in to Philly. Looks like the more wrapped up solutions my be closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS is really strong. Brings it in to Philly. Looks like the more wrapped up solutions my be closer to reality. can't wait to see the rainbands flying off the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 can't wait to see the rainbands flying off the ocean Boatload of rain for the I-95 area and points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Boatload of rain for the I-95 area and points west. the firehose pounds li/sne as the low pulls west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 monday could wind up being a fairly nice day in the dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 12z Ukie is more wrapped up and stronger as well. At hour 42 the low is almost over Philly with a pressure of 984mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Several areas now get 4+ and many get 3 + on the new High resolution nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 We could still see the models move a few more miles further west and go deeper with the storm over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 16Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 New 12z canadain is now in and it is very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Storms developing in pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12z SPC WRF has some weak storms coming through overnight tonight but nothing spectacular or organized. The major storm at the tail end of the run, however, looks very impressive. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/today_1h_f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12z SPC WRF has some weak storms coming through overnight tonight but nothing spectacular or organized. The major storm at the tail end of the run, however, looks very impressive. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/today_1h_f36.gif Can we name it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 euro is 2+ for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The 12z Euro seems to be deeper with the low than before. It also still seems to be the most east, with a 986 mb low pressure over New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 KISP NAM BUFKIT sounding for 12Z April 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 18Z Observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Plenty of good pressure drops within the past 2 hours. Multiple 3 pm obs both on land in the Panhandle and from buoys are sub 1003.5 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Flood watch for the entire tri-state region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Flood watch for the entire tri-state region. I think we get a wind advisory and a costal flood watch to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 18z NAM slightly lowered the rain totals with a maximum just under 2.5 inches as opposed to 3 inches. Still has a few hours of strong winds though, I'd think gusts would be somewhere around 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 hey nowww.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 18z rgem looks like it has 75-80mm of rain. So right around 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lets think Meteorologically here rather than modeled QPF: We have quite the moisture feed with this system, with PWATs well above normal for April coming from an Atlantic version of an Pineapple express. Synoptically, the forcing for ascent with this system is going to be amazing. The amount of upper divergence is really going to help get this system going too. Add the LLJ and you have a recipe for heavy rainfall. You have to think there will be some substantial amounts out there, regardless of what the next 4 runs of the NAM GFS etc show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lets think Meteorologically here rather than modeled QPF: We have quite the moisture feed with this system, with PWATs well above normal for April coming from an Atlantic version of an Pineapple express. Synoptically, the forcing for ascent with this system is going to be amazing. The amount of upper divergence is really going to help get this system going too. Add the LLJ and you have a recipe for heavy rainfall. You have to think there will be some substantial amounts out there, regardless of what the next 4 runs of the NAM GFS etc show. I prefer the RGEM over almost every model for precip amounts, inside of 24 hours. RGEM suffers though, when too much convection is involved. But for this system, it's the perfect situation to use this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lets think Meteorologically here rather than modeled QPF: We have quite the moisture feed with this system, with PWATs well above normal for April coming from an Atlantic version of an Pineapple express. Synoptically, the forcing for ascent with this system is going to be amazing. The amount of upper divergence is really going to help get this system going too. Add the LLJ and you have a recipe for heavy rainfall. You have to think there will be some substantial amounts out there, regardless of what the next 4 runs of the NAM GFS etc show. That is a very intelligent post because as far as numerical modeling has come over the last 40 years or so...determining which spot will receive the heaviest rainfall or snowfall remains a very difficult proposition...even for the models specifically designed to tackle such a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Timing looks like a line of showers from 8pm tonight through midnight. Then a break for a few hours before coastal rains begin at about 12pm tomorrow and lasting through mid Monday morning. Hardest rain tomorrow evening and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest gfs less than impressive with amounts, barely 2" for the city, less than that for most of NJ, also seems slower with the storm. Tonight's runs will definitely be interesting though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lets think Meteorologically here rather than modeled QPF: We have quite the moisture feed with this system, with PWATs well above normal for April coming from an Atlantic version of an Pineapple express. Synoptically, the forcing for ascent with this system is going to be amazing. The amount of upper divergence is really going to help get this system going too. Add the LLJ and you have a recipe for heavy rainfall. You have to think there will be some substantial amounts out there, regardless of what the next 4 runs of the NAM GFS etc show. Strongly agree. This is a situation where model guidance will probably be underdone with respect to precip totals. I wouldn't be surprised to see locallized amount of 5" under the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Lets think Meteorologically here rather than modeled QPF: We have quite the moisture feed with this system, with PWATs well above normal for April coming from an Atlantic version of an Pineapple express. Synoptically, the forcing for ascent with this system is going to be amazing. The amount of upper divergence is really going to help get this system going too. Add the LLJ and you have a recipe for heavy rainfall. You have to think there will be some substantial amounts out there, regardless of what the next 4 runs of the NAM GFS etc show. The GFS and most global models often underestimate the downpours in systems like this. The GFS will probably be too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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