Guest Pamela Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Congrats new jersey! Lol they jackpot during rainstorms and snowstorms, 5+ inches of rain and ill be lucky if i get half that, book it. Cite me 25 examples of your assertion (with storm data to back it up).... (and no help from anyone else on board) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 where is the dryslot going to set up for this storm ? Might be some wide variations in precip amounts across the region................. After Monday 12z there will be a dryslot, but thats typical a cyclone. All heaviest rain occurs before that for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The front is moving VERY slowly east - where will this front stall ? this will determine the exact track of the low pressure up the coast . Exactly where is stalls will determine which areas get the heaviest rainfall . not every area will receive 5 inches - there will be areas that receive much less .........I have a feeling that this is going to be one of those storms where the heaviest rainfall will be training up the delaware valley into eastern /central PA for a longer period of time.. and they will receive the heaviest rain 3 - 5 inches and areas east of there receive 1/2 or less of that amount. http://weather.unisy...fc_map_loop.php http://www.accuweath...llite?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 All of the models are beginning to catch on to that initial wave of heavy precip along the stalled frontal boundary...followed by the second area of very heavy precipitation associated with the strong low level jet and dynamics. We saw a similar deal with Irene although that system was much deeper and stronger. But you can see the orientation here on the NAM. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_6z/f39.gif http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_6z/f51.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Current 500mb: Vis/500mb Contours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If we can get into strong winds there's a chance this can be a damaging storm for millions of people from snow-winds. Man those people who get the snow are in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If we can get into strong winds there's a chance this can be a damaging storm for millions of people from snow-winds. Man those people who get the snow are in trouble Dude what is with you in winds? I think you should rename yourself WindFetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest SREF's mean has widespread 3+ inches of rain a with possible 40KT gusts along the coast. Any westward deviation in track would increase the winds and extend the precip max further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If we can get into strong winds there's a chance this can be a damaging storm for millions of people from snow-winds. Man those people who get the snow are in trouble Doubt it, the group is dry so it will be a big factor in preventing trees from being up-rooted, and the ends won't be that bad, March 2010 was a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Dude what is with you in winds? I think you should rename yourself WindFetish. Some people like snow I like wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 cue the rainfall bust predictions as the NAM is now consistent on a further west location which means some places further east MAY not get as much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 cue the rainfall bust predictions as the NAM is now consistent on a further west location which means some places further east MAY not get as much rain. If the surface low gets captured by the UL sooner, then the precip max will shift further west but it would probably just mean 2-3 here instead of 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 cue the rainfall bust predictions as the NAM is now consistent on a further west location which means some places further east MAY not get as much rain. Yea i couldve put money on that happening. I was saying a few pages back that almost every east coast storm that hit us in the past several years where were in the "bullseye" ends up delivery to jersey, eastern pa and upstate ny and we get the shaft so to speak. And we'll probably get dryslotted as well on long island i bet too haha. I like earthlight but i am soooo envious of his location hes almost always in the right place at the right time in jersey, damn him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Getting more concerned about damaging wind gusts along Jersey shore. 12z NAM, has 950mb winds 50-70kts along the Jersey shore tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Ill say it before anyone, BUST! Kidding hell even if we get .50" ill be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Still see at least 2-3 for many out east with a westward shift. Ill say it before anyone, BUST! Kidding hell even if we get .50" ill be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Getting more concerned about damaging wind gusts along Jersey shore. 12z NAM, has 950mb winds 50-70kts along the Jersey shore tomorrow evening: more impressive = that's only with a 992mb low at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest SREF's mean has widespread 3+ inches of rain a with possible 40KT gusts along the coast. Any westward deviation in track would increase the winds and extend the precip max further west. gee where did you hear about the westward shift and precip max further west ? - I first mentioned a few posts ago eastern /Central PA get the 3 -5 further east 1.5 - 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 cue the rainfall bust predictions as the NAM is now consistent on a further west location which means some places further east MAY not get as much rain. I like the way the NAM is now the western outlier. How quickly things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Getting more concerned about damaging wind gusts along Jersey shore. 12z NAM, has 950mb winds 50-70kts along the Jersey shore tomorrow evening: If the low ends up that far SW, those strong winds would definitely be a bigger concern. May not be as bad as March 2010 but still with the line of heavy rain and strong winds, the NAM almost reminds me of that storm a bit when there were a few hours with strong wind gusts and heavy rain at once. The ground isn't very wet so there shouldn't be endless trees coming down bringing down power instantly as with that storm, but the power lines aren't so strong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Nam is still showing 3 - 4(+) for most area-wide. This is fitting for yet another dry pattern to end this way. Id bet on the heavier amounts. Enjoying the bright sunshine and temps climbing through the 70s. Looks fairly dingy the next few days even past the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 gee where did you hear about the westward shift and precip max further west ? - I first mentioned a few posts ago eastern /Central PA get the 3 -5 further east 1.5 - 2.5 The Euro ensembles have been west since last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 NAM sometimes overdoes the whole wrapping up deal so just remember that too. It may be right, but it's done that before. Still looks liek it moves at least into NJ with almost a mini triple point trying to push through NYC maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The nam got stuck in traffic at NCEP. Sat Apr 21 15:04:10 2012 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 211504 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1455Z SAT APR 21 2012 12Z GFS BEGAN ON TIME. BUT.. DUE TO A CCS NAM JOB FAILURE.. THE 48HR TO 84HR NAM PRODUCTS WILL BE ABOUT 30-35 MINS DELAYED.. IT APPEARS THAT A NODE ISSUE STOPPED THE PROCESSING OF THE NAM AT THAT POINT. THE NAM WAS RE-STARTED AND IS PROGRESSING. 60hr PRODUCTS 14:26:57 14:38:15 START DELAYED 31-45 MIN. LATE 72hr PRODUCTS 14:36:31 14:43:53 START DELAYED 15-30 MIN. LATE 84hr PRODUCTS 14:41:53 14:53:18 Target=15:00:00 START DELAYED 15-30 MIN. LATE http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 even the most wrapped up sref members give LI 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 gee where did you hear about the westward shift and precip max further west ? - I first mentioned a few posts ago eastern /Central PA get the 3 -5 further east 1.5 - 2.5 you mean the one where you said go with the GFS from 2 days ago that lacked a phase early enough, and that it would whiff to the east? That one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 For what it is worth the gulf low is developing a bit faster already down to 1004-1005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 If the NAM verified, the strongest winds would move up toward LI and NYC Metro around 6z. While the wind max on the NAM is stronger over South Jersey, Coastal sections of LI could gust to 50 mph or greater for 1-3 hrs should the NAM verify. The SREFS were a little weaker with gusts of 40-50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Rain 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 12Z RGEM Total Rain 12Z RGEM Total Snow 2 - 3 inches (50 - 75 mm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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