stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Nam doing funky things with a double low initially. 18z GFS did this as well seams like the usual last minute minor errors are at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest High Resolution NAM is holding on strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The 12km NAM has 5.30" over parts of Northeast NJ http://www.meteo.psu...TAPA_0z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest High Resolution NAM is holding on strong. 4 inches, wow... could easily be the NAM's wet bias, although isolated 4" amounts are not out of the question. Good thing that the ground isn't very wet like it was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 GFS through 36 is slightly west with the low and moisture compered to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 0z GFS seems to be wetter than the 18z run, it also shows more of a consolidated low pressure as opposed to the 18z run which had a broader area of low pressure. It's still a bit weaker than the 0z/6z runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 There's been a lot of talk about the rain, but I haven't heard much about winds from this storm. With the low pressure tracking probably near NYC or NJ, winds inland probably shouldn't be as strong as places further east, but I'd think that with this type of a scenario at least the eastern half of the area would easily reach wind advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Mt. Holly did mention that isolated flooding was still possibie in there HWO. Because the water levels are so low I would expect a quick rise but it should all run off pretty fast. Remember, main stem delaware and hudson didn't flood significantly after Irene and the predecessor conditions were quite wet iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 There's been a lot of talk about the rain, but I haven't heard much about winds from this storm. With the low pressure tracking probably near NYC or NJ, winds inland probably shouldn't be as strong as places further east, but I'd think that with this type of a scenario at least the eastern half of the area would easily reach wind advisory criteria. There has been plenty of discussion in the thread about the winds. I think the low placement is poor for winds around here. a good analog (though of course different) is the April 07 storm were we had our strongest winds on the front and back ends and a period of light winds when the center was close to us. During that storm NNE had the strongest winds with hurricane force gust up in Maine. I think we ill see similar scenario this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 There has been plenty of discussion in the thread about the winds. I think the low placement is poor for winds around here. a good analog (though of course different) is the April 07 storm were we had our strongest winds on the front and back ends and a period of light winds when the center was close to us. During that storm NNE had the strongest winds with hurricane force gust up in Maine. I think we ill see similar scenario this time. I've seen some refences to the April 07 storm for this one, obviously this won't be anywhere near the magnitude of that storm but there's still some similarities. New England does seem to be the most favored area for strong winds as well, although I'd think that at least at some point during the storm, not throughout the whole event due to the less than ideal low position, there would be a period of stronger gusts in Long Island/Connecticut, perhaps enough for a wind advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 New canadain is now in with several inches of rain for eastern pa and NJ Also has a fairly strong low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 There she is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro has come in west with the precipitation and turns the low sooner also it does develop the low faster then the previous run. Should be interesting to see how this storm pans out short range high resolution models are close to the stronger phased solution it had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 KISP NAM BUFKIT sounding for 12 UTC April 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 The GFS ensemble mean is a bit west of the OP GFS by a hair also a bit more widespread with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 06z nam looks west and better organized along the coast rather than those multiple lows shown on Fridays runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 06z NAM looks out to lunch compared to everything else. Looks like the low goes into NYC and deluges the area and points NE, Good winds for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 06z nam looks west and better organized along the coast rather than those multiple lows shown on Fridays runs. Interesting to note that the other models went weaker when they had multiple lows and were stronger when they had 1 organized low. Though the nam is most west now seams all guidance is trying to shift a little stronger and west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I do like its presentation of the low better along the coast before it gets up here. Not saying it will be this way, but I was suspect of those multiple low centers it was showing yesterday after its 12z run along the Outer Banks. Be interested to see what some of its later runs do as we get closer. 06z NAM looks out to lunch compared to everything else. Looks like the low goes into NYC and deluges the area and points NE, Good winds for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I do like its presentation of the low better along the coast before it gets up here. Not saying it will be this way, but I was suspect of those multiple low centers it was showing yesterday after its 12z run along the Outer Banks. Be interested to see what some of its later runs do as we get closer. Sometimes you can get those weird meso lows that spin up, but yeah I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Man it looks like LI could gust to 50 or even a bit better if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 06z GFS looks like it shifted west, now has low over Atlantic City before retrograding west. LI certainly in the stronger wind potential if these further west scenarios hold. Man it looks like LI could gust to 50 or even a bit better if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 06z GFS looks like it shifted west, now has low over Atlantic City before retrograding west. LI certainly in the stronger wind potential if these further west scenarios hold. What a snowbomb for areas like BFD and high terrain of western NY. Good God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 950mb winds on the 6z NAM tomorrow night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 New NAM QPF totals just in Also appears to me that the H5 is stronger this run then the 18z run. Congrats new jersey! Lol they jackpot during rainstorms and snowstorms, 5+ inches of rain and ill be lucky if i get half that, book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 6z RGEM has a 986mb low over Delaware: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Actually it looks like 06z ensembles take the low into NJ too, so some agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Best winds LI, NYC and CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 6z NAM has up to 30 kt. winds just S and W of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 where is the dryslot going to set up for this storm ? Might be some wide variations in precip amounts across the region................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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