stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The 18z NAM looks to be where many of the euro ensembles are hinting at the low tracking now. very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The winds after the low passes us to the NW may be more of the story then before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The winds after the low passes us to the NW may be more of the story then before. ehh wouldnt expect much more than mid 40s with the NW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 the euro ensemble mean has been unwavering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 ehh wouldnt expect much more than mid 40s with the NW winds. NW Winds? The low is not going to be passing us to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The winds after the low passes us to the NW may be more of the story then before. yea... it looks, though, that there might be a bit of delay until they pick back up again.. The NAM generally has winds in the 10-15 knot range after the low passes.. The strongest pressure gradient remains south of us.. at least through 84 hours, although it does appear some stronger winds might approach a bit after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro ensemble did seem like it shifted the preipc axis a bit east based on the precip probs that I can see, but the overall depiction did not change too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The GFS and Euro ensemble mean looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18Z RGEM MSLP/3 hour precip. at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z GFS seems to really wrap this thing up right over NYC. Seems to slow down as the trough cuts off. Certainly not what the wind enthusiasts want to see but an impressive storm still being depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks as if the GFS has a stronger low but weaker QPF along with going east. not making much seance usually it would be the other way around. Also H5 of the GFS supports a track slightly east of the nam but west of where surface places it this run hopefully it corrects it's self soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z GFS seems to really wrap this thing up right over NYC. Seems to slow down as the trough cuts off. Certainly not what the wind enthusiasts want to see but an impressive storm still being depicted. is the axis of the heaviest precip still over long island? or is it more inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Seems to be similar, but slightly north of LI. I take that with a grain of salt personally because QPF maps always waiver from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The QPF-low strength is not linear so just because a low is stronger by a few millibars does not mean the precip will be stronger.The precip is focused along a low level front. If that shifts east, so will the precip..even if the low wraps into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 You betcha! And I doubt the GFS is handling any orography well with its QPF either for those places inland. The QPF-low strength is not linear so just because a low is stronger by a few millibars does not mean the storm will be stronger.The preicp is focused along a low level front. If that shifts east, so will the precip..even of the low wraps into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I think that all the convection down around FL and the Gulf are throwing the models off from run to run. We may just have to wait and see where the strongest convection and low pressure verifies later Saturday into the night to get a better handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 You betcha! And I doubt the GFS is handling any orography well with its QPF either for those places inland. Man that post was very edit worthy..lol. Sorry if my point was not clear to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Seems to be similar, but slightly north of LI. I take that with a grain of salt personally because QPF maps always waiver from run to run. we're analyzing noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Mine or yours? Man that post was very edit worthy..lol. Sorry if my point was not clear to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Mine or yours? No, mine. Just spelling errors and wrong choice of words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I understand what you meant. Anyway you put it, the potential is real high for several inches of rain which we desperately need. I think its obvious that the 12z NAM was probably too strong, but I still would not bet against this low ending up west southwest of where the GFS is showing it. No, mine. Just spelling errors and wrong choice of words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I understand what you meant. Anyway you put it, the potential is real high for several inches of rain which we desperately need. I think its obvious that the 12z NAM was probably too strong, but I still would not bet against this low ending up west southwest of where the GFS is showing it. Yeah these setups sometimes will cause models to waffle a bit. I guess the biggest difference is for those wanting the stronger winds. To me, this looks like it's going to be one hell of a 6 hr dump for some. It's a more prolonged storm, but there will be a 6 hr period which dumps on areas across the tri-state area into LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 High Resolution nam through 60 hours wide spread several inches of rain per the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 80 degrees before the front tomorrow -- could enjoy that before some storms come through at night per the 18z NAM. Should be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Ahh yes, and I am sea breezed! 80 degrees before the front tomorrow -- could enjoy that before some storms come through at night per the 18z NAM. Should be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Can someone post the NAM or GFS snowfall maps please. I would but can't attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 SREF Mean just in. All of new jersey and extreme east pa 2.50-3 inches now. It basicly went more wide spready with heavy rain fall. Very Impressive for a mean spread usually the mean of the sref is slightly drier then operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Just for the record Last nights GFS made on obvious error. Jet streaks on the east side of a ridge are not that straight!! Sure enough by 18z it showed an S shape. If you see this during winter it is clear that the NRN stream will move SE slower and will contain a Shortwave, not a Longline, which isn't even a meterological term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 New NAM QPF totals just in Also appears to me that the H5 is stronger this run then the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Nam doing funky things with a double low initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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