SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Except urban and small stream, yes. in a normal year we would be looking at a major flood threat, this is probably the first time in about three years that there is 0 flood threat with this kind of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 After Irene last year, even 3 inches doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It is when it comes to the drought. Can you stop being so negative? After Irene last year, even 3 inches doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 It is when it comes to the drought. Can you stop being so negative? Dont see how that was negative? Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The issue between NAM & GFS could also be the amount of gulf deepening that occurs between 24 to 36 hours. Latest NAM (18z) is continuing the further south / gulf deepening route . Compared to GFS which is further north and barely any time over the gulf. (gulf temps = already 80 or above ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 KISP NAM BUFKIT sounding at 12 UTC April 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If we can get rid of the inversion, I don't see a reason why we can't have hurricane force wind gusts on Long Island Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If we can get rid of the inversion, I don't see a reason why we can't have hurricane force wind gusts on Long Island Monday morning. If we have convection and heavy rain going on, I dont see why some strong winds cant mix down. The inversion isnt going to help but some momentum should come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The numbers on the lower right of the station plots represent the sea-surface temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 For the above sounding here is the pressure level and the associated wind direction/strength in knots: 980.6 125 / 21 950.0 129 / 52 900.0 145 / 73 850.0 158 / 70 800.0 166 / 59 750.0 154 / 48 700.0 155 / 54 650.0 160 / 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Except urban and small stream, yes. Mt. Holly did mention that isolated flooding was still possibie in there HWO. Because the water levels are so low I would expect a quick rise but it should all run off pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro ensembles are west of operational and a lot of members are leaning west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This might be a little overboard, but latest gulf visible does look somewhat impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yay, we got a "see text" for tomorrow!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 For many of us who live NYC eastward or along the south shores, this may very well be the most significant wind/rain storm since Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Nam also making a jump into the weaker camp. 1000mb on the outer banks, as opposed to 12z, where it had a 996mb. The phase isn't as nice, which is probly due to the big shifts with the positioning of the northern stream. This doesn't really affect the amount of rain however. We still get walloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks like the nam is some what weaker but remember take theses inside 48 hour changes with a grain of salt we have seen model mad some ridiculous changes that do not pan out inside 48 hours. Hence why I like to start my nowcasting early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Its been terrible inconsistent, and I see a 996 mb low on the outerbanks at 00Z Monday still with the slight shift in orientation of the northern stream. Nam also making a jump into the weaker camp. 1000mb on the outer banks, as opposed to 12z, where it had a 996mb. The phase isn't as nice, which is probly due to the big shifts with the positioning of the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Nam also making a jump into the weaker camp. 1000mb on the outer banks, as opposed to 12z, where it had a 996mb. The phase isn't as nice, which is probly due to the big shifts with the positioning of the northern stream. This doesn't really affect the amount of rain however. We still get walloped It's stickin to it's guns though. Still juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 "Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will intensify from the southeast at 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph, possibly touching 70 mph along the immediate coast and over the coastal waters. Travel is not recommended on Sunday night with the threat for coastal flooding, flash flooding, and very poor visibility."Steve d That sounds sick if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM is still west and a ton of rain west of us through 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Its been terrible inconsistent, and I see a 996 mb low on the outerbanks at 00Z Monday still with the slight shift in orientation of the northern stream. yeah the nam can be a bit whacky with these types of storms. I have a lot more trust in the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Nam seems to have weird low centers on this run, but still is deepening the low and tucking it into southern jersey due to the orientation of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Upton not impressed with the winds at all. They think well below advisory criteria. But thats good every time they forecast strong winds it never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Similar rain totals to the euro for NYC, about 2.50" But much wetter then euro for PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 18z NAM back to reality, winds of 20-30 mph at the coast with some gusts into the 40s. With such a strong inversion, I doubt we see wind advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Upton not impressed with the winds at all. They think well below advisory criteria. But thats good every time they forecast strong winds it never happens. If the low goes right over us as they are projecting, then it may not be an issue until after the low passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 If the low goes right over us as they are projecting, then it may not be an issue until after the low passes us. True but aren't most models to the west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The NAM is, and some of the ensembles are, but the OP GFS and OP euro are close enough to having the low go over us that the gradient stays east early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 both the 12z GFS and NAM were both "meh" with the possibility for thunder tomorrow, the CAPE is not where I would like it to be, the LI was OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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