CooL Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro through 72 is definitely taking a step back from its 00z run. Weaker low and less digging with the trough. Looks like its gonna pass east of NYC instead of SW of it like the 00z euro and the nam. There's also less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Three degrees is pretty significant for water temperatures. I've seen 10+ degrees above normal. In March, the ssts were 6-10 degrees above normal for the 1st half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM is kinda alone with such a strong storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro through 72 is definitely taking a step back from its 00z run. Weaker low and less digging with the trough. Looks like its gonna pass east of NYC instead of SW of it like the 00z euro and the nam. There's also less precip The Low is basically over NYC/western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM is kinda alone with such a strong storm now. As usual, not true at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Hour 72 Euro. Looks like its about to curl into NYC from there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 As usual, not true at all. What other model shows a 978mb low south of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Hour 72 Euro. Looks like its about to curl into NYC from there: We'll have to wait and see if the ensembles are still west when they come out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z GFS ens mean is very close to a position like the operation GFS near our just west of NYC at 12z Mon. Id be curious to see if the 12z euro ens mean makes any drastic shift. I personally dont think what the 12z Euro is showing is a drastic shift in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 As usual, not true at all. Absolutely true if you use todays 12z models as a reference point. The NAM has the strongest surface low pressure near our latitude of any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Its true but doesnt change the fact this is going to be a significant storm. What other model shows a 978mb low south of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z euro still has close to 2.50" of rain for NYC. Perhaps a little more. It cut back to the west a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What other model shows a 978mb low south of NYC? You have been very informative in this thread.....and thread as a whole has been top notch...complete reversal from our snowstorm threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 part of the problem with the Euro is that the trof never really goes extremely negatively tilted as, for example, the NAM. It does have an impact in the strengthening of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Euro still has 2.50" of rain and a 990mb low. Still a very nice system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Right now model concensus is for a 2"-4" rainfall. Strength of the storm is something that can keep changing, even 6 hours before the storm. The euro made a bit of a shift but nothing crazy and nothing that's not normal. The euro is still a very solid storm with good rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z GFS ens mean is very close to a position like the operation GFS near our just west of NYC at 12z Mon. Id be curious to see if the 12z euro ens mean makes any drastic shift. I personally dont think what the 12z Euro is showing is a drastic shift in anyway. I'll try and post the euro ensemble mean precip info and low placement when they come out at 3:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looking at the rest of the guidance it would appear that the 12 Z ECM is now an eastern outlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z euro still has close to 2.50" of rain for NYC. Perhaps a little more. It cut back to the west a little bit. It is definitely an entirely different system than the NAM is advertising though..it's nearly 20mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 It is definitely an entirely different system than the NAM is advertising though..it's nearly 20mb weaker. Its 12mb weaker. The strength will change right up until 6 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro backing off a bit is not a big deal it has done it with every major storm I have looked at it for For years. As to the issue with the strength of the low you got a few factors at play right now. 1. How fast this phases the current mesoscale set up is looking fairly favorable foe a strong phase which would result in a stronger low 2. We got the wild card floating about with the warmer then normal ocean temps. Every model is going to be different with low strength. IMO it is nothing to stress out about or get gray hairs over it is a simple matter that will be resolved by nowcasting. Can not remember a major storm where the strength of a low was not a nowcasting feature. Another interesting thing to point out is that most storms we have seen with full phases tend to deepen faster aka the December 2011 rain storm where the low was about 2-4 mb's deeper then modeled when it got here. Might not necessarily get to the Nam but it is something to watch out for. For now it is time to start focusing more on short range and high resolution models like the NMM WRF MM5 and so on as they tend to pin point where the heaviest banding will set up pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 The euro backing off a bit is not a big deal it has done it with every major storm I have looked at it for For years. As to the issue with the strength of the low you got a few factors at play right now. 1. How fast this phases the current mesoscale set up is looking fairly favorable foe a strong phase which would result in a stronger low 2. We got the wild card floating about with the warmer then normal ocean temps. Every model is going to be different with low strength. IMO it is nothing to stress out about or get gray hairs over it is a simple matter that will be resolved by nowcasting. Can not remember a major storm where the strength of a low was not a nowcasting feature. Another interesting thing to point out is that most storms we have seen with full phases tend to deepen faster aka the December 2011 rain storm where the low was about 2-4 mb's deeper then modeled when it got here. Might not necessarily get to the Nam but it is something to watch out for. For now it is time to start focusing more on short range and high resolution models like the NMM WRF MM5 and so on as they tend to pin point where the heaviest banding will set up pretty well. Jan. 27, 2011, the euro backed off big time the 3 runs leading up to the event. It cut precip totals to as low as .50"-.75", the 2 runs right before the snowstorm. NYC ended up with 15"-20" of snow. The meso models never backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Jan. 27, 2011, the euro backed off big time the 3 runs leading up to the event. It cut precip totals to as low as .50"-.75", the 2 runs right before the snowstorm. NYC ended up with 15"-20" of snow. The meso models never backed off. sometimes it is right though but Believe it or not it is the same deal every time. NAM is the strongest prior to the storm sometimes right sometimes wrong GFS sometimes goes wacky. euro goes east and weaker. Nowcasting ends up the storms models had before having issues we shall see if the usual business occurs with futures runs it has already on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 sometimes it is right though but Believe it or not it is the same deal every time. NAM is the strongest prior to the storm sometimes right sometimes wrong GFS sometimes goes wacky. euro goes east and weaker. Nowcasting ends up the storms models had before having issues we shall see if the usual business occurs with futures runs it has already on the euro. The Euro ensemble mean has held the more westerly track all along while the OP has bounced around. We should know in a little while if this continues to be the same pattern with the model or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 latest 3 day HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 latest 3 day HPC Coastal areas are def looking like the jackpot areas currently as far as rainfal with this system. Easily 3+ inches of rain for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I keep looking at the 500 mb maps on the 12z euro at 12z Monday and feel like there is room for this to go further west than its depicting. Will see what the ensembles show soon. I dont have access to the data other than on Allans site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I keep looking at the 500 mb maps on the 12z euro at 12z Monday and feel like there is room for this to go further west than its depicting. Will see what the ensembles show soon. I dont have access to the data other than on Allans site. I see what you mean. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm hugging the water a making the turn later rather than sooner. We'll see how meso features/ banding/ latent heat release steer this bad boy and ultimately, how quick it can get going. Obviously, the quicker, stronger it can deepen, the quicker the turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 New SREF MEAN just in has about 3 inches for the NYC area including north jersey. southwest of it about 2.50 inches of rain. Let me say it is very rare to see the MEAN go this high on the sref. Atleast I have not seen it go this high very many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 in a normal year we would be looking at a major flood threat, this is probably the first time in about three years that there is 0 flood threat with this kind of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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