earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Two things to keep in mind at a 60 hour forecast (still time for some adjustments in track and intensity)..these are 900 hpa winds....and base reflectivity. Looks like a significant storm system on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What kind of inversion is the NAM showing, I mean I could see maybe low 50s gusts at places like JFK and south shore locations but getting much stronger is difficult in the spring (march 2010 being the exception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 With the position of this storm being to NYC/Long Island's SOUTHWEST - I'd have to agree w/ JM1220 - the wind factor could be a big problem for Long Island.. A pretty sizable Southeast fetch.... If this were January, we'd all be bitching b/c this would be a rather large rain/wind event for the coast while places up toward NE PA into the Catskills would get 2-4 feet of snow! Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 But the rain is coming in two waves, the front and then the main storm so we'll likely get a lull before the heavier stuff gets here. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is right and we don't see much tomorrow. In my opinion, the NAM as well as the EURO are usually a bit slow with storms, so I would expect rain to be moving in with the main system Saturday night, we will see if that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This almost has shades of a spring version of December 92. Heavy snow inland, heavy rain and wind on the coast with a track just onshore. It hopefully won't end up being quite as damaging to the coastline though. With the position of this storm being to NYC/Long Island's SOUTHWEST - I'd have to agree w/ JM1220 - the wind factor could be a big problem for Long Island.. A pretty sizable Southeast fetch.... If this were January, we'd all be bitching b/c this would be a rather large rain/wind event for the coast while places up toward NE PA into the Catskills would get 2-4 feet of snow! Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Have to see what happens, tomorrow (day) there probably won't be to much going on, maybe some showers. Rain from the main system will probably begin moving in later tomorrow night and continue thru Monday morning at least. But the rain is coming in two waves, the front and then the main storm so we'll likely get a lull before the heavier stuff gets here. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is right and we don't see much tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 This almost has shades of a spring version of December 92. Heavy snow inland, heavy rain and wind on the coast with a track just onshore. It hopefully won't end up being quite as damaging to the coastline though. It won't stall out for that length of time, which would be crucial given the new moon and the long lasting easterly fetch that storm generated. I think it could bad for 1 or 2 high tide cycles, but not potentially for days like that one was. The waves will definitely batter the coast and cause huge beach erosion however. There's a definite difference between a storm that tracks east of us and has northerly wind vs. one that tracks west of us and brings in a strong onshore wind. There definitely would be some flooding on the south shore and bays with a track like this NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Some of those NAM images look similar to Irene when you remove the time of year. Ur going to be home for this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM keeps things pretty inverted so winds aren't terribly strong. That makes sense to me for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Anyone have a sounding from JFK sunday night on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I could see a 2-3hr window of strong winds on the coast, but I don't see 60-70mph stuff right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I could see a 2-3hr window of strong winds on the coast, but I don't see 60-70mph stuff right now. Agree -- in my experience in storms that come up along a stationary front, the winds usually underperform a bit .. while the rain and convection usually is a bit more intense...just minus the big wind gusts. This definitely has that firehose look to it towards the tail end...NAM has some real impressive moisture & dynamics. I wonder if we start off with some elevated storms as the front nears the area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Agree -- in my experience in storms that come up along a stationary front, the winds usually underperform a bit .. while the rain and convection usually is a bit more intense...just minus the big wind gusts. This definitely has that firehose look to it towards the tail end...NAM has some real impressive moisture & dynamics. I wonder if we start off with some elevated storms as the front nears the area, too. Yeah LIs get near or below 0 right at the tail end of that firehose. This will dump a ton of rain with such a warm and moist LL overrunning the warm front at the surface. Classic for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Agree -- in my experience in storms that come up along a stationary front, the winds usually underperform a bit .. while the rain and convection usually is a bit more intense...just minus the big wind gusts. This definitely has that firehose look to it towards the tail end...NAM has some real impressive moisture & dynamics. I wonder if we start off with some elevated storms as the front nears the area, too. we often experience the biggest winds outside the heavy rain in these setups. I agree with your thoughts, maybe 20-30 mph sustained with gusts in the 40s. Not sure they even do a wind advisory due to the strong inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 we often experience the biggest winds outside the heavy rain in these setups. I agree with your thoughts, maybe 20-30 mph sustained with gusts in the 40s. Not sure they even do a wind advisory due to the strong inversion. I wouldn't rule out the stronger winds in spots, with the low bombing as quickly as it might plus the favorable track to the left of the area. Maybe after 3/13/10 I'm jumpy about these things, but it wouldn't take as much as you would think to break it and transport the very strong winds just aloft to the surface. Lot of dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z GFS drives 988 low right into NYC hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z GFS develops the low a little bit later then NAM but still drops 2.50"-3" of rain for the NYC area with a lot more to our north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yeah, I still think it's possible that the heavy convection could help mix down the strong winds to the surface, despite the inversions. And what are the water temps? Could be a several degree difference between LGA and JFK - that temperature difference made LGA's inversion much stronger than JFK's during March, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 There is a very strong LLJ just off the deck so you do have to watch out for that, especially over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yeah, I still think it's possible that the heavy convection could help mix down the strong winds to the surface, despite the inversions. And what are the water temps? Could be a several degree difference between LGA and JFK - that temperature difference made LGA's inversion much stronger than JFK's during March, 2010. -Closest buoy to LGA (King Point), is reading 52.7 degrees right now. -The closest buoy to JFK (Sandy Hook) is reading 58.3 degrees right now. -The ocean buoys south of LI are all reading 51-54 degrees right now. Temps are not much above normal right now in our area waters. There is a warm pocket of water 100-150 miles south of LI right now that has 60-65 degree water in it. Thats mostly due to the annual push of gulf stream waters into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yeah, I still think it's possible that the heavy convection could help mix down the strong winds to the surface, despite the inversions. And what are the water temps? Could be a several degree difference between LGA and JFK - that temperature difference made LGA's inversion much stronger than JFK's during March, 2010. Waters are also warm for this time of the year and the NAM even warm sectors us. Not to say it's likely but I think it's a possibility. I remember 3/13/10 the night before being projected to be a fairly average wet/windy day. The hurricane force gusts were a complete shock, and localized since places north of maybe Jericho Turnpike had little wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 March 2010 had a much much stronger PG with an easterly jet apporaching -6SD, this is not anywhere in that league. The key feature they all had in common was strong 850 hPa u-winds with u-wind anomalies in the -5 to -6SD range. http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/2010/13Mar2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 -Closest buoy to LGA (King Point), is reading 52.7 degrees right now. -The closest buoy to JFK (Sandy Hook) is reading 58.3 degrees right now. -The ocean buoys south of LI are all reading 51-54 degrees right now. Temps are not much above normal right now in our area waters. There is a warm pocket of water 100-150 miles south of LI right now that has 60-65 degree water in it. Thats mostly due to the annual push of gulf stream waters into our area. Average water temperatures for April 20th: Kings Point buoy: 49.5 (so we are 3.2 degrees above normal) The 3 ocean buoys south of LI: 50.5 (so we are 1-4 degrees above normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Waters are also warm for this time of the year and the NAM even warm sectors us. Not to say it's likely but I think it's a possibility. I remember 3/13/10 the night before being projected to be a fairly average wet/windy day. The hurricane force gusts were a complete shock, and localized since places north of maybe Jericho Turnpike had little wind. I agree. This has more of a sou'easter look to it than a nor'easter look which is best for the strongest winds. (Less friction from the land). It's possible that we can avoid the strong inversions in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 UKIE in line with the rest. Has 2.50" of rain with hours 60-66 missing. So easily 3"-4" of rain also. Hours 54-60 and hours 66-72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The further south that we get the phase, the stronger the storm is going to be here. My guess is that the 12z Euro comes in stronger than the GFS but not quite as deep as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looking at 12z ggem b & w maps, it looks like nearly 80mm of precip. So GGEM is also in line with 3"-4" of rain. Waiting for color to update to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The further south that we get the phase, the stronger the storm is going to be here. My guess is that the 12z Euro comes in stronger than the GFS but not quite as deep as the NAM. That would also mean stronger winds, too. An earlier phase allows the storm to go negative a lot quicker and take a NW heading earlier...if the storm can cut to our west in time, we could get into a mini warm sector to help reduce potential inversions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Average water temperatures for April 20th: Kings Point buoy: 49.5 (so we are 3.2 degrees above normal) The 3 ocean buoys south of LI: 50.5 (so we are 1-4 degrees above normal) Three degrees is pretty significant for water temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 March 2010 had a much much stronger PG with an easterly jet apporaching -6SD, this is not anywhere in that league. The key feature they all had in common was strong 850 hPa u-winds with u-wind anomalies in the -5 to -6SD range. http://nws.met.psu.e...0/13Mar2010.pdf Yeah I completely agree. I just remember a few NAM runs producing a 100kt LLJ, but a strong inversion as well. Inversion fail for the most part in that instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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