ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 As we approach, models continue to advertise a fairly substantial cutoff low affecting the area this weekend. Interraction of the 2 jet branches is key to how much rain we receive. Last night's euro went back to the phased solution and as a result 2"-3"+ of widespread rain was shown. The rest of the globals are also sticking with the phased idea. The 0z Ukie phases the 2 branches and then has a significant noreaster off our coast. Timing and placement still to be determined. Right now the chance of 1"+ of rain over the weekend is definitely moderate. Hopefully, the models hold on to this idea as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Last night's euro was a drought buster for sure. Had 3" of rain from the coastal and then the ULL sits to our west giving the area rain showers for 3 more days. That's the best solution for our area as it will be a long duration event and kill the fire and drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 And even 3" won't cause much flooding especially spread out over 3 days Last night's euro was a drought buster for sure. Had 3" of rain from the coastal and then the ULL sits to our west giving the area rain showers for 3 more days. That's the best solution for our area as it will be a long duration event and kill the fire and drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 And even 3" won't cause much flooding especially spread out over 3 days The 3" was all on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 12z GFS misses the phase through hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 12z GFS misses the phase through hour 90. Still gives the area a good amount of rain. 1.75" for NYC 2"-2.50" for LI And big time amounts for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Still gives the area a good amount of rain. 1.75" for NYC 2"-2.50" for LI And big time amounts for SNE. Eastern LI into SNE receives 3"-4.50". We need a phase for NYC west to get into those totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Looks almost like it ends as some wet snow on the backside Monday night, temps in the 30s Eastern LI into SNE receives 3"-4.50". We need a phase for NYC west to get into those totals as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Looks almost like it ends as some wet snow on the backside Monday night, temps in the 30s That would be wild! Though this year anything is possible. Droughts suck, boring weather no waves and the death of plants and trees... Bring on the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I don't think it will end the drought, as we are in a fairly large deficit since the beginning of the year. However the rain will definitely dampen down fire conditions. Hopefully a bunch of that rain also falls over the NYC watershed areas upstate. As we approach, models continue to advertise a fairly substantial cutoff low affecting the area this weekend. Interraction of the 2 jet branches is key to how much rain we receive. Last night's euro went back to the phased solution and as a result 2"-3"+ of widespread rain was shown. The rest of the globals are also sticking with the phased idea. The 0z Ukie phases the 2 branches and then has a significant noreaster off our coast. Timing and placement still to be determined. Right now the chance of 1"+ of rain over the weekend is definitely moderate. Hopefully, the models hold on to this idea as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 12z GGEM is a partial phased solution and takes a 990 low into eastern LI. Rain totals similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro is east. Has an inside the BM coastal storm. Heaviest rains east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro is also a pretty cold solution with a northern flow as the low bombs out to our east and north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Crazy solution by the euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro is east. Has an inside the BM coastal storm. Heaviest rains east. How much for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Crazy solution by the euro: How do surface temperatures look on the ECMWF? I don't want a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The euro has a retrograding bomb. I doubt that verifies. But if it does than someone will get snow in the interior for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro ensembles are west of the operational. Low is off the Delmarva and then right on top of NYC. Also, its much wetter. Close to 3" for NYC. Pretty impressive for a smoothed mean. Rain starts Saturday night (with fropa) and then the coastal rains are Sunday morning through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The Euro has 850's below -5 on Monday night in Northern New Jersey with surface temps around 34. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro snowmap has some snow in our area lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I don't think it will end the drought, as we are in a fairly large deficit since the beginning of the year. However the rain will definitely dampen down fire conditions. Hopefully a bunch of that rain also falls over the NYC watershed areas upstate. Even if it doesn't necessarily "end the drought", it depends where we go from there. If we enter a stormier pattern with even normal precipitation after that storm, the drought will be over. Slight negative precipitation departures do not indicate long term drought. If we go back into driness, then the drought will continue, but probably not as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Euro snowmap has some snow in our area lol Mt Holly was mentioning this in their AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The control run of the Euro that just came out is nearly identical to the operational run. A bomb developing off the NJ coast, heading toward Boston as a 988mb, then retrograding to NY State with precipitation here the whole time and 850's on Monday night below -5, even into NYC. Unreal. It clearly indicates that someone will get at least 6 inches of snow. In fact, it has the 850's below freezing from Monday morning through the entire storm after the initial front comes through on Monday morning early. Unreal. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The control run of the Euro that just came out is nearly identical to the operational run. A bomb developing off the NJ coast, heading toward Boston as a 988mb, then retrograding to NY State with precipitation here the whole time and 850's on Monday night below -5, even into NYC. Unreal. It clearly indicates that someone will get at least 6 inches of snow. In fact, it has the 850's below freezing from Monday morning through the entire storm after the initial front comes through on Monday morning early. Unreal. Incredible. Crazy. Safe to assume the surface is in the single digits in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 12z Euro ensembles are farther west than Euro op: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The operational had us in the mid 30's at the surface with the 850 temps at -5. It looks like the control run is very similar. Any idea how to fix my weather sticker below? Crazy. Safe to assume the surface is in the single digits in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 The operational had us in the mid 30's at the surface with the 850 temps at -5. It looks like the control run is very similar. Any idea how to fix my weather sticker below? The control run has temperatures at the surface throught the NYC area in the 50s and 60s while the 850 mb temperatures are below 0 and precipitation is still falling from this storm. That is not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Which is why it's an operational run - can definitely happen this time a year but look at the trends of the season man - don't get burned again...... The control run of the Euro that just came out is nearly identical to the operational run. A bomb developing off the NJ coast, heading toward Boston as a 988mb, then retrograding to NY State with precipitation here the whole time and 850's on Monday night below -5, even into NYC. Unreal. It clearly indicates that someone will get at least 6 inches of snow. In fact, it has the 850's below freezing from Monday morning through the entire storm after the initial front comes through on Monday morning early. Unreal. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Is there anything in this set up that can even support having snow near NYC, even if it's just light snow as opposed to a 12z ECM-like solution? I would find this hard to believe any year in late April, but especially so in this year when there were barely any amplified storms near the coast. It also doesn't help that models have occasionally exaggerated cold and snow this season in the medium range, including the ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 New gfs gives less than. 5" now and barely anything after Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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