powderfreak Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Surprised no one has mentioned the DGEX? LOL Rain to snow in eastern MA... blue bomb in ME/NH/VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i think the problem is with the data assimilation and initialization scheme. like scooter said...spring and summer kevective feedback. for some reason all of the data is skewed. daytime temps are too high, soil moisture content is too low yet evapotranspiration rates are through the roof, dews are simultaneously too low and too high... Lapse rates spike to 11-12c/km. Very unstable!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 this weekend must be killing you. you know you want it to rain - your lawn depends on it. but you want it to be dry so you can work outside. you want the euro to be right so you get 3" of rain, but you want it to be wrong so you get nothing and dry begets dry. you want the GFS to be right because it's dry, but you want it to be wrong because it gives you no rain. but if the GFS is right, it beats the euro (again) and further disproves your amerigarbage theory. you want to say "toss it folks" because it's the GFS but you're also kind of hoping the euro folds so you can say AWT. tough times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i think the problem is with the data assimilation and initialization scheme. like scooter said...spring and summer kevective feedback. for some reason all of the data is skewed. daytime temps are too high, soil moisture content is too low yet evapotranspiration rates are through the roof, dews are simultaneously too low and too high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Surprised no one has mentioned the DGEX? LOL Rain to snow in eastern MA... blue bomb in ME/NH/VT Always entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i'll be happy with 3/4 of an inch. even 1/2 inch i think. anything. I just worry if we don't get over 2 inches..most of that is going to be sucked up by the trees and as soon as the torch/dry conditions resume next week..we're right back to where we started. This time of year 1/2 of rain just doesn't do much and is gone in 2 days. The scary thing is the pattern continues to look dry right into mid May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 at Ginx's diagram... well played. At least any rain will help in the green up process. Otherwise this stuff will be hurting and weak all summer. If we can get a half inch to an inch across New England the growth will explode next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sheer brilliance, Ginxy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this potential storm is the most interesting low pressure evolution in several months IMO. something east of euro....west of gfs seems to be what scooter is leading with.......wether it digs for oil near long island many in the elevated interior should wonder? keep an eye on this in the elevated interior....kev.....dave....will...socks......power outage bookened nightmare potential. this seems like a 20% shot or so IMO at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this potential storm is the most interesting low pressure evolution in several months IMO. something east of euro....west of gfs seems to be what scooter is leading with.......wether it digs for oil near long island many in the elevated interior should wonder? keep an eye on this in the elevated interior....kev.....dave....will...socks......power outage bookened nightmare potential. this seems like a 20% shot or so IMO at this time. 'cept there are very few leaves out here...lol At least there will be precip, and hopefully in decent amounts. And we can track something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 DGEX has snow going further inland than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Congratulations 00z and 06z GFS! You've just succeeded in taking a multi-day, multi-guidance type heavily agreed upon scenario and morphed it entirely into a NON drought busting pedestrian rainshower event... I tell you what ... If this happens it underscores the hypothesis that "dry begetting dry" is really nothing other than the intrinsically rarer success rates at getting increasingly anomalous rain events. We are in a -3 or -4 SD type deficit, so it's going to be difficult shooting a basket ball from mid court and getting a +4 compensator to succeed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The KFS sometimes suffers from Kevective feedback. The good folks at TCEP (Tolland Center for Environmental Prediction) know about this and will implement a fix for it in May. Oy vay - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Congratulations 00z and 06z GFS! You've just succeeded in taking a multi-day, multi-guidance type heavily agreed upon scenario and morphed it entirely into a NON drought busting pedestrian rainshower event... I tell you what ... If this happens it underscores the hypothesis that "dry begetting dry" is really nothing other than the intrinsically rarer success rates at getting increasingly anomalous rain events. We are in a -3 or -4 SD type deficit, so it's going to be difficult shooting a basket ball from mid court and getting a +4 compensator to succeed here. The 2-day NE-ward progress of the gfs is remarkable. Tuesday afternoon it had AUG getting 4.5" rain thru next Tuesday, with a 5-6" jackpot IZG-RUM. Yesterday, AUG was down to 2.5" and the bullseye (now about 4") was MLT. 06z run gives AUG a monster 0.4", hardly enough to settle the dust clouds being created by the street sweeper, and the jackpot moves to....I've no clue - Anticosti Island? Iceland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I think most of us expect the GFS to capitulate almost fully to the Euro over the next several runs. The only thing that holds us back from total confidence is the new "unimproved" more fallible Euro model of this past winter. But it still cleans up on the GFS most of the time inside 3 or 4 days. Oy vay - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I think most of us expect the GFS to capitulate almost fully to the Euro over the next several runs. The only thing that holds us back from total confidence is the new "unimproved" more fallible Euro model of this past winter. But it still cleans up on the GFS most of the time inside 3 or 4 days. Yeah unless the northern stream takes over completely and the trough cannot dig as much which would stop the southern stream energy from rounding the trough in time, I don't think it'd be as progressive as the GFS shows. I like scooters blend of the euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I think most of us expect the GFS to capitulate almost fully to the Euro over the next several runs. The only thing that holds us back from total confidence is the new "unimproved" more fallible Euro model of this past winter. But it still cleans up on the GFS most of the time inside 3 or 4 days. Well the ECM, GGEM, UKMET were all pretty similar...its the GFS out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Leaf out AWT @mattnoyes on Twitter Fire danger high/very high again today, but leaves blooming in Southern New England keeps danger moderate in CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 More trees popped mini leaves here after Monday's 80's, but overall not enough to cause big problems if we get the blue wet snow bomb. Hah thats wishful thinking though to believe that the Euro snow will actually come to fruition. Leaf out AWT @mattnoyes on Twitter Fire danger high/very high again today, but leaves blooming in Southern New England keeps danger moderate in CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NAM DGEX and 6z GFS all whiffing east now....Euro run will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'll be a weenie and say I think based on the new 48 hour GFS it may be shifting west a bit. NAM DGEX and 6z GFS all whiffing east now....Euro run will be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 12z GFS looks pretty wet for monday.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The GFS is clearly west this run...and probably not at it's finally solution. Low crosses the elbow of the Cape now... 12z GFS looks pretty wet for monday.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The GFS is clearly west this run...and probably not at it's finally solution. Low crosses the elbow of the Cape now... Yes, And tracks north thru Mid Coast Maine up into the County, Hvy Hvy rain, Looks like some mtn and NW Maine snow Looks pretty chilly on the backside once the frontal passage on NW winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Precip shield on the GFS looks fairly weak to the west. Under a half inch out here verbatim. Over 1000' might see a couple inches of snow however with 850s -3C or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Precip shield on the GFS looks fairly weak to the west. Under a half inch out here verbatim. Over 1000' might see a couple inches of snow however with 850s -3C or so. i think it has you >1"...unless you moved from C MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Goofus coming down from its crack bender and has swung to the west. Has fairly impressive surface deepening hr. 78-96, vigorous lobe of 500 hPa vorticity rounding the trough, and potent jet streak crashing up into ENE. Also may be a bit more robust with the antecedent fropa. NYC looks to be right on the cutoff of heavy precip if taken verbatim. SNE - esp. eastern sections - gets wallopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Looks like earlier GFS run was maybe too far east. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Well we can probably lock in on final track now which should take it over or east of Cape. Ene is the place to be if you want over 1 inch. Prob like Orh on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 i think it has you >1"...unless you moved from C MA. Well I was referring to the Ct. river valley, which is right on the half-inch line. My house is 15 minutes southeast on a hill so the climate is not exactly the same but still more western MA than C MA. Still downsloping on the east wind to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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