CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The KFS sometimes suffers from Kevective feedback. The good folks at TCEP (Tolland Center for Environmental Prediction) know about this and will implement a fix for it in May. When did the KFS exhibit a progressive bias? Several days ago it was overamplification and a cut off driving a sfc low into the central Apps with rain missing us to the west?????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The KFS sometimes suffers from Kevective feedback. The good folks at TCEP (Tolland Center for Environmental Prediction) know about this and will implement a fix for it in May. TCEP is in the process of burying the lawn in favor of a rock garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The beauty of the KFS is it has the unique ability to jump from one drastic solution to another...which is what makes it so valuable and so accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 When did the KFS exhibit a progressive bias? Several days ago it was overamplification and a cut off driving a sfc low into the central Apps with rain missing us to the west?????????? The beauty of the KFS is it has the unique ability to jump from one drastic solution to another...which is what makes it so valuable and so accurate LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 It's not out of the question a few tstms develop Saturday aftn. It gets a bit unstable with a decent trough approaching and left entrance region of jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I just read the entire thread over breakfast. Pure gold, Jerry, pure gold KFS getting a beatdown prior to initialization Kevective feedback, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 It's not out of the question a few tstms develop Saturday aftn. It gets a bit unstable with a decent trough approaching and left entrance region of jet. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Imagine the clown maps on the KFS? Every clipper would look like 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Imagine the clown maps on the KFS? Every clipper would look like 1888. KFS is gonna rock you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Imagine the clown maps on the KFS? Every clipper would look like 1888. Followed by 1965 drought then 1927 flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Congrats Better chance out by you. Mulch lit on fire from lightning strike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Boy last nights Euro op was a soaker huh? Gives everyone in SNE atleast 2.5". Then those east of Worcester get 4" and some inside of 128 it gives 5" of rain too. Drought buster and a half if this were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The low was a frosty 25 here. Pete ...have a great trip to AK. 29/28, nice to have it below freezing. Everyone should visit the drough and fire threads as they are about to be made obsolete.I guess we won't have a 1930's style dust bowl afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GEFS Mean Spread has an inch spread over Boston for 24 hour period valid Monday night...crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Last day on the site for a couple weeks. Looks like the weather will be sweet. The black flies aren't nearly as bad when the air is cool. Hey man, have a good time and be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 GEFS Mean Spread has an inch spread over Boston for 24 hour period valid Monday night...crazy stuff. 06 GEFS is noticeably more robust and colder, .5 contour moved way west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Better chance out by you. Mulch lit on fire from lightning strike? Hopefully Saturday is 100% dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 06 GFS says congrats Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Hopefully Saturday is 100% dry this weekend must be killing you. you know you want it to rain - your lawn depends on it. but you want it to be dry so you can work outside. you want the euro to be right so you get 3" of rain, but you want it to be wrong so you get nothing and dry begets dry. you want the GFS to be right because it's dry, but you want it to be wrong because it gives you no rain. but if the GFS is right, it beats the euro (again) and further disproves your amerigarbage theory. you want to say "toss it folks" because it's the GFS but you're also kind of hoping the euro folds so you can say AWT. tough times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this weekend must be killing you. you know you want it to rain - your lawn depends on it. but you want it to be dry so you can work outside. you want the euro to be right so you get 3" of rain, but you want it to be wrong so you get nothing and dry begets dry. you want the GFS to be right because it's dry, but you want it to be wrong because it gives you no rain. but if the GFS is right, it beats the euro (again) and further disproves your amerigarbage theory. you want to say "toss it folks" because it's the GFS but you're also kind of hoping the euro folds so you can say AWT. tough times. Time for the KFS to head to the rafters... noose in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this weekend must be killing you. you know you want it to rain - your lawn depends on it. but you want it to be dry so you can work outside. you want the euro to be right so you get 3" of rain, but you want it to be wrong so you get nothing and dry begets dry. you want the GFS to be right because it's dry, but you want it to be wrong because it gives you no rain. but if the GFS is right, it beats the euro (again) and further disproves your amerigarbage theory. you want to say "toss it folks" because it's the GFS but you're also kind of hoping the euro folds so you can say AWT. tough times. I would like 1-3 inches of rain..all of it falling later Sunday into Sunday night..and then get the torch resuming next week. That is truly what i want..But what I want, and what reality dictates will be 2 different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 8-15 day stretch looks decent, but seems like a boundary nearby. It's not cold, but not torchy either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 8-15 day stretch looks decent, but seems like a boundary nearby. It's not cold, but not torchy either. I'd bet May 1-5 is an all out blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Time for the KFS to head to the rafters... noose in hand. it's a lose lose for the KFS right now. too far west, too far east, too dry, too progressive, too amplified, muggy with high dews, heaviest rain in ENE, heaviest rain in NYS, toss the GFS, euro is waaayyy too wet and too west. TCEP servers are crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I would like 1-3 inches of rain..all of it falling later Sunday into Sunday night..and then get the torch resuming next week. That is truly what i want..But what I want, and what reality dictates will be 2 different things i'll be happy with 3/4 of an inch. even 1/2 inch i think. anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 it's a lose lose for the KFS right now. too far west, too far east, too dry, too progressive, too amplified, muggy with high dews, heaviest rain in ENE, heaviest rain in NYS, toss the GFS, euro is waaayyy too wet and too west. TCEP servers are crashing. It may be time to upgrade it to 4DKEV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The 8-15 day stretch looks decent, but seems like a boundary nearby. It's not cold, but not torchy either. That's what I'm seeing too. Upper air flow looks relatively zonal for the first week in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 65-70F and sunny would be perfect for the firat week of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 this weekend must be killing you. you know you want it to rain - your lawn depends on it. but you want it to be dry so you can work outside. you want the euro to be right so you get 3" of rain, but you want it to be wrong so you get nothing and dry begets dry. you want the GFS to be right because it's dry, but you want it to be wrong because it gives you no rain. but if the GFS is right, it beats the euro (again) and further disproves your amerigarbage theory. you want to say "toss it folks" because it's the GFS but you're also kind of hoping the euro folds so you can say AWT. tough times. This is brilliant! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 It may be time to upgrade it to 4DKEV i think the problem is with the data assimilation and initialization scheme. like scooter said...spring and summer kevective feedback. for some reason all of the data is skewed. daytime temps are too high, soil moisture content is too low yet evapotranspiration rates are through the roof, dews are simultaneously too low and too high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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