CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 2"+ again on the EC op/ens. Despite the details, every run has been very wet for a couple of days now. dry begets dry storm going well west storm missing east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 lol at 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 lol at 6z GFS I would love to watch Blizz take over your job for a month. How long before the villagers with torches and pitchforks showed up outside the studio? Over/under would be 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Outside of the tracking of a snow event or tropical storm, this system has garnered so much attention. Guess that's attirbutable to how utterly boring the weather has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I would love to watch Blizz take over your job for a month. How long before the villagers with torches and pitchforks showed up outside the studio? Over/under would be 5 days. lol... his bald head would reflect the studio lights so strongly people at home would feel like they were staring into the sun while he was doing wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 29/28, nice to have it below freezing. Everyone should visit the drough and fire threads as they are about to be made obsolete.I guess we won't have a 1930's style dust bowl afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 dry begets dry .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. .SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 lol... his bald head would reflect the studio lights so strongly people at home would feel like they were staring into the sun while he was doing wx. Do you think he could wait for his turn or would he just cut the anchor off and start going on about the impending, simultaneous drought, fire and flood weather that was about to consume CT.? Somewhere a jogging Blizz's ears are ringing.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Last day on the site for a couple weeks. Looks like the weather will be sweet. The black flies aren't nearly as bad when the air is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sadly things seem to be going to furthur east and dry. We simply can't catch a break. May be able to salvage a totally dry weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sadly things seem to be going to furthur east and dry. We simply can't catch a break. May be able to salvage a totally dry weekend Well decent fropa saturday afternoon will bring showers. So not totally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Coastal Maine looks like they are going to get slammed with rain/wet snow Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I am a little concerned by the GFS' shift. While I don't mind missing out on the jackpot, I hope we can still get something substantive in GC. Any rain will be a win, but if the difference between "some rain" and really denting the dry situaiton is a matter of 25-50 miles, I will lament my qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sadly things seem to be going to furthur east and dry. We simply can't catch a break. May be able to salvage a totally dry weekend GFS Hugger? throw out GGEM, Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS is concerning, but even it's own ensembles disagree for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Sadly things seem to be going to furthur east and dry. We simply can't catch a break. May be able to salvage a totally dry weekend LOL...euro gives you almost 3" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 GFS is concerning, but even it's own ensembles disagree for now. man when i first saw that this morning... thankfully everything else disagrees, heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 man when i first saw that this morning... thankfully everything else disagrees, heavily. There's a fair number of GFS ensembles that are close to the op. I think Euro Ens have a decent spread east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I'll laugh is the GFS were to happen. That would be a kick in the nads. Lets hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Last day on the site for a couple weeks. Looks like the weather will be sweet. The black flies aren't nearly as bad when the air is cool. Travel safely Pete...and savor every bit of snow you see. Wish i were going but my Valdez trip is now 8 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 man when i first saw that this morning... thankfully everything else disagrees, heavily. I do worry a bit about this being kicked a little further east, but the op may be a little too far east. It's funny to see ensembles west and the op east. Normally weenies would like that in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 I do worry a bit about this being kicked a little further east, but the op may be a little too far east. It's funny to see ensembles west and the op east. Normally weenies would like that in the winter. I would love a BM track from the NJ coast with a capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I do worry a bit about this being kicked a little further east, but the op may be a little too far east. It's funny to see ensembles west and the op east. Normally weenies would like that in the winter. I was thinking this morning thank God this is not a snow event. What a disaster this would be to forecast. Weenies would still be jumping up and down with the potential of 30"+ on the random runs that keep printing out the perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 There's a fair number of GFS ensembles that are close to the op. I think Euro Ens have a decent spread east too. yeah i know i saw em...but given half or better are way west and the funky convective blob running out ENE on the op GFS...i don't know i feel like it's a couple of hiccup runs. they still give me a solid soaking so verbatim it doesn't really change things to much for me, but would be a huge difference everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The differences are obvious even at about 90 hrs out. If you look at hr90 on the euro vs hr 84 on the 06z GFS, you can see what I mean. At 500mb, the nrn stream s/w energy is not nearly digging as deep as the euro is. The euro closes it off, while the GFS kicks it energy out east. Even out west the euro is sharper with the ridge than the GFS. Just thinking out loud here, but I wonder if the bias of the GFS kicking things too far east and the euro closing off lows too quickly. In other words maybe a solution farther east of the euro and west of the GFS? I'm sure the 12z runs will change from 00z and 06z, but just wondering. I'd like to lock in the Euro and Canadian and Ukie since it gives us quite a bit of much needed rain. It's tough to ignore the other models right now when the GFS op seems farthest east...but I could see how it may shift around some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 LOL...euro gives you almost 3" of rain. The Euro is wrong..flat out. Hopefully the GFS is too..but the Euro is waaayy too wet and west..progressive pattern..remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 The Euro is wrong..flat out. Hopefully the GFS is too..but the Euro is waaayy too wet and west..progressive pattern..remember that GGEM?UKMET? NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The Euro is wrong..flat out. Hopefully the GFS is too..but the Euro is waaayy too wet and west..progressive pattern..remember that Well it's not progressive, but your argument is that it's progressive enough. A truly progressive pattern would have a low zipping through here from the Great Lakes. HPC seems to like a low moving over LI which for now seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 19, 2012 Author Share Posted April 19, 2012 When the Swartz synoptic seven is tossed for the GFS we know the KFS has gone bipolar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 When the Swartz synoptic seven is tossed for the GFS we know the KFS has gone bipolar. The KFS sometimes suffers from Kevective feedback. The good folks at TCEP (Tolland Center for Environmental Prediction) know about this and will implement a fix for it in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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