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Substantial drought relief rains en-route?


Ginx snewx

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Amen. I'm bummed Pete won't be around if snow is falling in the Berks. Though I know many of you would rather not hear about it.

We'll know if it gets exciting if ORH_wx starts posting again, especially about any snow chances. At least this is injecting some life into the board.

Everyone here will have strict instructions to photograph and keep me updated. How awesome if we get a crushing.
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Conclusion: I don't believe there is anything particularly special in the physics of a drought that actually serves onto the drought – which is what “dry begets dry” seems to dance around as an intended meaning. It may purely be a function of once random chance has gotten a region into a dry funk, it is just statistically hard to get that region back to normal.

That all said … yes, there are some truths to land-moisture deficits helping to accentuate a moisture sink. But if we think of it in terms of scaling the equation of environmental influencers, I bet those physical processes are not as determinant as the shear variability (statistical) side of the argument.

IMO, "dry begets dry" works mainly in the warmer seasons, as evaporational deficit dries out the soil and reduced plant growth limits transirational moisture.

Back to the weekend-plus event: 12z gfs moved the 5" qpf jackpot NE from RUM to MLT (still has 2-3" for MBY), and the big snow dump into Canada, except for that 20" bubble in the NW-most tip of Maine. It also has 1-2" snow in a band running NE from Bethel-Bangor-Danforth Sun into Mon, just before the heaviest rain is progged. I doubt that.

As others have said, it's fun having something interesting to track, and the prospect of significant rain is a good thing, as our local rivers are running at less than half the previous record low flow for this time of year.

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NCEP's take...

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY

ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE

EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING

RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW

YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE

APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD AS

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY

ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

ROTH/GERHARDT

If this things rides E a tad, I would suggest late season snow gets into the els of western and CNE, too
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There it is... snow has been thrown back in above 2,000ft or so.

Sunday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 27.

Monday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy and windy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy and blustery, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

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Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too

East??? The KFS was bringing this thing over western Pennsylvania!

What a terrible model. It's like a JMA/nogaps blend interpreted by a snowNH/analog96 blend.

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Great discussion by Taber in the BTV AFD... I know everyone in SNE is holding their breath on whether or not we get another "prolonged upslope event." ;)

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL PHASE

WITH SOUTHERN ENERGY TO PRODUCE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRES NEAR

HATTERAS BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WL TRACK NE

TWD THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE COAST BY TUES...AS DEVELOPING CLOSED 5H/7H

CIRCULATION LIFTS ACRS OUR REGION. THIS WL ADVECT PLENTY OF

GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD

RAIN EVENT LIKELY. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A

WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS

ACRS THE TRRN. GIVEN THE SHIFT FURTHER EAST IN THE SFC LOW PRES

TRACK...SOME COLDER AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AS

LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR NORTH...TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACRS

THE HIGHER TRRN. GIVEN...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW AND DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H

CIRCULATION WRAPPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR CWA...A

PROLONGED UPSLOPE EVENT WITH SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ABOVE 1500

FEET WL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THRU TUES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS

ATTM...WITH A DECREASE TWD CHC POPS BY WEDS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS 6 TO

12 HRS SLOWER WITH COASTAL DEVELOP AND IMPACTS ACRS OUR REGION...BUT

CONTS TO SHOW A SHIFT FURTHER EAST...ALONG WITH A COOLER SOLUTION.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -6C ON

BACKSIDE...WHICH WL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW. OTHERWISE...TEMPS

WL RANGE FROM THE M30S MTNS TO U40S WARMER VALLEYS FOR MONDAY THRU

WEDS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U20S TO U30S. FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL

FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WL BE POSSIBLE ON

MONDAY...GIVEN DEVELOPING EASTERLY GRADIENT.

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Like the avatar.Much more interesting talking about more snow and a storm. Sure beats the excited posts over a +2.7 temp departure. I'll be so happy to read about a late season crusher.

Haha, a buddy of mine caught that photo of me while I was "working" and doing some product testing. Just another day at the office.

Yeah dude I don't care who gets snow out of this... Berkshires, Catskills, us, Adirondacks, Whites... I just enjoy talking and forecasting snow more than anything else. Getting big rains would be nice, but getting snow somewhere would be even more fun.

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Haha, a buddy of mine caught that photo of me while I was "working" and doing some product testing. Just another day at the office.

Yeah dude I don't care who gets snow out of this... Berkshires, Catskills, us, Adirondacks, Whites... I just enjoy talking and forecasting snow more than anything else. Getting big rains would be nice, but getting snow somewhere would be even more fun.

I'll be monitoring the situation closely. Even if I'm out of town it will be a sweet sweet victory if there is a late season thump. Hopefully the day LL gets back from roasting down in SC there will be snow down to the coast. BTW, never buy a Samsung monitor. I bought this one less than 2 yrs ago and it's on the fritz.

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Any westerly componet is a compressional,downsloping flow in the valley..always tack on a few degrees for that..plus dry ground/full sun/full mixing..90 was a lock..if flow was south..then yeah go Scooter

A 210 degree wind does not downslope at BDL lol

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