CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 May? It will. lol lots of energy diving around that trough. Well right, but it's possible it doesn't move around all that much. When I mean waffle...I mean like a 100+ mile displacement. It's not a lock that it does that, hence the "may." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Will be reduced to NAM, NOGAPS status. New software code needed. Actually, he can just throw out a verion of the infamous "oops, pay no attention to the GFS" from two winters back. What an awesome day that was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I just want this to bomb near the BM and bring someone the goods. Whether we get 50kt winds or 4" of slop at ORH..lets just get something interesting. Euro wasn't far from that..lol. Still pretty far out and this may waffle a little more. Amen. I'm bummed Pete won't be around if snow is falling in the Berks. Though I know many of you would rather not hear about it. We'll know if it gets exciting if ORH_wx starts posting again, especially about any snow chances. At least this is injecting some life into the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Looking at the GEFS members, still a lot of disagreement relating to the nrn and srn streams and how they interact. That's where models will shift around as we head closer over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 No kidding. Yeah what do surface temps like? Phil mentioned a closed 30F contour over NYS/VT? I do think this could be an example where the Catskills?Dack get hammered above like 2,000-2,500ft and the Whites are raining. Classic tuck job per EURO Really not that unusual in these April storms to see snow down at 2000ft in the Catskills/Taconics/Poconoes while it's pouring up here. For under 2000ft I want to see H85s at least -4C or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Amen. I'm bummed Pete won't be around if snow is falling in the Berks. Though I know many of you would rather not hear about it. We'll know if it gets exciting if ORH_wx starts posting again, especially about any snow chances. At least this is injecting some life into the board. Will always has a better shot of snow than many of us here in ern areas even in the winter. Your weenie should perk up if he does, because he has elevation. This winter I was on the outside looking in..lol. To me right now, it looks like a decent rain event for many of us..probably ending as snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Well right, but it's possible it doesn't move around all that much. When I mean waffle...I mean like a 100+ mile displacement. It's not a lock that it does that, hence the "may." Yeah well, the EURO literally just jumped 400 miles east along with the CMC. It's 144 hours out. If guidance can 'waffle' within 100-150 miles, that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 all i want is 1" of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Looking at the GEFS members, still a lot of disagreement relating to the nrn and srn streams and how they interact. That's where models will shift around as we head closer over the next couple of days. Gun to head, is East trend BS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Really not that unusual in these April storms to see snow down at 2000ft in the Catskills/Taconics/Poconoes while it's pouring up here. For under 2000ft I want to see H85s at least -4C or lower. Yeah I would want to see some 850's atleast at -4C, which the 12z Euro advertises at 12z Monday. Even with the impressive dynamics of this storm, it'll be hard for this to be significant in 'civilization' in terms of snow without a cooler profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah well, the EURO literally just jumped 400 miles east along with the CMC. It's 144 hours out. If guidance can 'waffle' within 100-150 miles, that's impressive. What are you trying to say? I used the word "may" to describe some uncertainties. Not sure what your point is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 the reactions to changes in the timing of phasing are non linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Fight, fight, fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Gun to head, is East trend BS? Well all the models have the same idea. Low pressure curling back into SNE. Euro is just offshore while many curl right into SNE. So I think the east shift from the Appalachians probably is believable to a point. Models seem to be locking in on a general track, but who's to say it can't go back east or west by 50-100 miles when we are 5+ days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 What are you trying to say? I used the word "may" to describe some uncertainties. Not sure what your point is. No, no, not saying anything towards your statement, I'm just saying we are still at a juncture where large shifts can still occur. I was thrown off by your 'whaffle' I think. Usually when I hear whaffle i think smaller shifts. My b. Lots of interactions that need to be sorted out for something like this to end up threading the needle to for snow chances, except for higher elevations, which most have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 the reactions to changes in the timing of phasing are non linear This really isn't a big phase job imo. It's the nrn stream going bananas with some help from the srn closed off low...but mostly nrn stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 No, no, not saying anything towards your statement, I'm just saying we are still at a juncture where large shifts can still occur. I was thrown off by your 'whaffle' I think. Usually when I hear whaffle i think smaller shifts. My b. Lots of interactions that need to be sorted out for something like this to end up threading the needle to for snow chances, except for higher elevations, which most have said. Oh ok...I just meant more or less...shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Oh ok...I just meant more or less...shifting around. Yeah its cool dude. Yeah like you said it seems more like northern stream energy really driving this thing..even on the GFS. It seems more like whether that southern peice will be playing catch up or not at hr 120ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Seems like a consensus is for this to curl somewhere into SNE right now. While euro op is east, guidance isn't all that far off from each other when you consider how far out we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 the 00z MON EC was near the benchmark...lest some forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Bet it finds a way to produce < 1" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Bet it finds a way to produce < 1" for most Just for KTOL so he can be right LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 all i want is 1" of liquid agree. we need it and week after week of litchfieldlibation circle of sizzle is very old now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Seems like a consensus is for this to curl somewhere into SNE right now. While euro op is east, guidance isn't all that far off from each other when you consider how far out we are. Sort of like a weenie curling to the right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 12 UKMET has it tracking over BWI fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 all i want is 1" heh heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Sort of like a weenie curling to the right? More like left. I know the euro was east, but just saying if you were to sort of blend models together. I'm sure things will shift around a bit over the next 48-72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 gon rain............................on someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah...the euro probably even mixes with snow here at some point before the trowal plows the 850 0C to my west. 138hr is damn cold in this region. It's too early to get excited though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Yeah euro ensembles seem to argue that the op may be an eastern outlier for now. Looks like low goes near NYC, but def east of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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