Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 pete (and maybe not just pete) would get accumulating snow on the euro. wow. impressive system as modeled on that run. How I pray oh how I pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too An utter implosion by the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 pete (and maybe not just pete) would get accumulating snow on the euro. wow. impressive system as modeled on that run. How are the mtns up here? Or too far SE? I could see a tuck scenario where the coldest air wraps back into the Catskills and Berks while NNE sees rain to the summit of MWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too it's still 5+ days out so whatever but on that run he wouldn't be the only one. Logan11, Powderfreak, Mitch, maybe Dendrite for a time, even parts of NW CT. the euro is really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 An utter implosion by the KFS. Will be reduced to NAM, NOGAPS status. New software code needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 it's still 5+ days out so whatever but on that run he wouldn't be the only one. Logan11, Powderfreak, Mitch, maybe Dendrite for a time, even parts of NW CT. the euro is really cold. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Thankfully he'll be in Alaska..so the only person that would see snow in SNE won't be around. Expect farther shifts east too LOL why do you want this to miss so badly? Expect it further west...now expect it further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 it's still 5+ days out so whatever but on that run he wouldn't be the only one. Logan11, Powderfreak, Mitch, maybe Dendrite for a time, even parts of NW CT. the euro is really cold. How much rain does it drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 LOL why do you want this to miss so badly? Expect it further west...now expect it further east. He is totally confuzzled. Major hard drive failure imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How much rain does it drop? just about all of SNE sees >1.5"...except extreme W CT/SW MA where it's a hair less....line from about HVN to KTOL to ORH to SE NH is 1.75"+...E MA/Cape is 2-2.5 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How much rain does it drop? 1-2" over most of SNE with Cape 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah, 100 miles east of that track your talking the biggest event in a few years.... wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 EC very similar to the GFS now, just about 6-12 hours behind...could see AM snow showers across the higher terrain on Tuesday if the run verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How are the mtns up here? Or too far SE? I could see a tuck scenario where the coldest air wraps back into the Catskills and Berks while NNE sees rain to the summit of MWN. the low goes up over the Cape and then kind of runs NNW. you'd do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 i'm not sure if my charts are right...euro has closed 30F surface contour over VT/NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Tip wins with the progressive pattern.. tough to lock off a cutoff in this environment. Still needs to be taken with grain of salt..since we haven't had a coastal since October..Think about that...October..6 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah, boundary layer temps too warm ...otherwise that would be an awesome snow event. May yet be for elevations over western Mass/S VT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 How are the mtns up here? Or too far SE? I could see a tuck scenario where the coldest air wraps back into the Catskills and Berks while NNE sees rain to the summit of MWN. That thing cuts right from PVD to ALB with thicknesses above 540dm and 850's below freezing. Can't see qpf though. Probably some of that is snow Monday night...can't see surface temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Tip wins with the progressive pattern.. tough to lock off a cutoff in this environment. Still needs to be taken with grain of salt..since we haven't had a coastal since October..Think about that...October..6 months It's still going to cutoff, it's a matter of where. Pattern supports that, but location TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 More pics of tables buried at 4K en route...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Margusity just tweeted that he tossed the Euro..and that he's going to lose it if someone says it's gonna snow in NYC. You guys gotta follow him on Twitter for some laughs...I always take pot shots at him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 That thing cuts right from PVD to ALB with thicknesses above 540dm and 850's below freezing. Can't see qpf though. Probably some of that is snow Monday night...can't see surface temps though. cold pool as low cuts in, probably rain to wet snow for the higher elevations, possibly lower elevation snow showers by Tuesday morning per EURO and 850s -2 to -5C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah, 100 miles east of that track your talking the biggest event in a few years.... wtf Or since October? Either way, always fun when Tip starts musing about blue snow bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 More pics of tables buried at 4K en route...lol. yeah that run clocks the high elevations. Dacks' would be a nice spot to be in that one. if Powderfreak takes a summit trip, i think he would just start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 More pics of tables buried at 4K en route...lol. I an pull a couple chairs out of the summit lodge if you'd like too However in all honestly not feeling snow out of this. It's not much of a lock compared with the recent upslope event...anyone could see for days that would bury the mountains. Just get a closed low into northern ME then game on. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 yeah that run clocks the high elevations. Dacks' would be a nice spot to be in that one. if Powderfreak takes a summit trip, i think he would just start as snow. I just want this to bomb near the BM and bring someone the goods. Whether we get 50kt winds or 4" of slop at ORH..lets just get something interesting. Euro wasn't far from that..lol. Still pretty far out and this may waffle a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 cold pool as low cuts in, probably rain to wet snow for the higher elevations, possibly lower elevation snow showers by Tuesday morning per EURO and 850s -2 to -5C No kidding. Yeah what do surface temps like? Phil mentioned a closed 30F contour over NYS/VT? I do think this could be an example where the Catskills?Dack get hammered above like 2,000-2,500ft and the Whites are raining. Classic tuck job per EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I just want this to bomb near the BM and bring someone the goods. Whether we get 50kt winds or 4" of slop at ORH..lets just get something interesting. Euro wasn't far from that..lol. Still pretty far out and this may waffle a little more. that's what i was thinking...as the run was coming out...at around hr 120 or so i thought it might park itself near or just S of ACK and really be a true spring nor'easter / drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I just want this to bomb near the BM and bring someone the goods. Whether we get 50kt winds or 4" of slop at ORH..lets just get something interesting. Euro wasn't far from that..lol. Still pretty far out and this may waffle a little more. May? It will. lol lots of energy diving around that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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