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Substantial drought relief rains en-route?


Ginx snewx

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0.1-0.15" in the bucket so far and steady light rain.

I was at 42F for a bit, but literally just slipped to 41F. Ahhh nothing like a 40 degree rain after several wonderful warm evenings recently.

Find the front... upper 30s to low 40s in this neck of the woods, while its still 70F or higher in spots like North Conway, Jackman, and the Lakes Region of NH southward.

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May 1-7, 2012 Thoughts:

With the AO likely to be negative leading up to May and the PNA likely to be positive into much or perhaps all of the first week in May, one would typically expect to see cold anomalies in a large part of eastern North America. However, 2012 has not been an ordinary year so to speak. Warmth has consistently outdueled the cold. Even typically cool patterns have underperformed.

If one looks northward, one finds an expansive area of cool anomalies currently located over Canada. However, farther north in the Arctic, warmth predominates. As a result, the cold will likely modify in advance of May and even areas that would typically experience cool weather could wind up on the mild side of normal.

The charts below are as follows:

Top Left: ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of -0.7°C to 0.0°C, a PNA of -0.25 to +0.50, and an AO of +0.25 to +1.50 for North America (1950-2011).

Top Right: 4/21/2012 12z GFS Ensembles 11-15-day forecast (May 2-6, 2012)

Bottom Left: Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies for April 18, 2012

Bottom Right: Observed decadal change in temperatures for May

May1to72012.jpg

The close of March into the first 12 days of April saw a dramatic burst of westerly winds in the Pacific. In response, there was a fairly dramatic warming of the ENSO regions, with the 2011-12 La Niña coming to an end. However, the past 9 days have been characterized by a rebound in the easterly trade winds. As a result, some cooling of the ENSO regions has taken place and is likely to continue. Right now, it is too soon to know for sure whether an El Niño or Neutral ENSO conditions will be the rule for the summer and beyond. Interestingly enough, among the analogs showing up for the first week in May is 2001.

More immediately, the issue concerns the weather for the first week in May. Taking into consideration the warmth in the Arctic, GFS ensembles, CFSv2 forecast, and the observed decadal temperature change, I expect:

- An area of cool anomalies across Central, Western, and perhaps northern Canada

- Near normal readings in the Southeast

-Near normal to somewhat above normal readings across much of the rest of the U.S.

-Above to perhaps much above normal readings in the Southwest (areas currently experiencing excessive heat)

The hits just keep on coming..Nothing but warm, warm , warm..Thankfully May looks warm yet again..Enjoy it eberyone. Wrap your weenie around and it and embrace an early summer

Gibbs and Donny S FTW

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Impressive leaf out while I was away, BOS near +7.5 for the month, incredible, how warm was it the last 8 days, no internet access or tv was absolute bliss, hope all is well with everyone.

Is it going to rain?

Severe torch continues--it was in the 80's on Mon and Tue, BDR is +7 as well MTD.

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