WeatherX Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Man this just might be 0ct 2011 all over again for some areas. 40mph winds too..especially in the high terrain in sw NY and western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro is very cool next week. Gotta watch if any disturbances can amplify in the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Man this just might be 0ct 2011 all over again for some areas. 40mph winds too..especially in the high terrain in sw NY and western PA. Yeah look at the moisture getting advected into that marginally sub-freezing column... its not below freezing by much but its more than enough for heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Look at the tongue of low instability in NY state. Even LIs below 0 right at the dryslot. That tells me TSSN possible just ahead of dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This will be a lot of fun to watch... those elevations between 1,000-2,500ft there south/southeast of BUF and all of western PA are in for a massive snowfall. 12z GFS Precip Totals are huge and its all snow out there... gotta add in the fact that a northerly flow and northwesterly flow will upslope from the low elevations around the lakes into those hills and really wring out the moisture probably more than the models think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This will be a lot of fun to watch... those elevations between 1,000-2,500ft there south/southeast of BUF and all of western PA are in for a massive snowfall. Roadtrip, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 10-16" is a good starting place for the NWS WFO BUF... winds to 40mph plus heavy wet snow should be fun. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 330 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 NYZ012-019>021-085-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.120423T0300Z-120423T2300Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 330 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER * TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Decent threat for thunderstorms later this evening. Getting some good convection in eastern NY ahead of the stratiform precip. Actually have some low CAPE with minimal inhibition and moisture convergence along this axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 LOL at the flood watch..If we got 6 inches of rain it wouldn't flood anything other than urban drainage. Instead they should be more concerned about a HWW. Not sure what goes on at that office anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 2-3 for all of us..AWT..Those 4-5 amts were ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Euro is awful until day 9-10. The kind of miserable spring wx we all hate..Clear nights, sunny mornings and cloudy,windy, dry afternoons with dry NW flow.' man we'd better maximize this rainfall the next 2 days or else. Looks like it warms up late month into May as warmer air from plains moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 LOL at the flood watch..If we got 6 inches of rain it wouldn't flood anything other than urban drainage. Instead they should be more concerned about a HWW. Not sure what goes on at that office anymore Parched ground like we have is actually less absorbent, increasing the flood threat compared to normal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Pretty good signal for a period of below normal next weekend.....can that signal again be overwhelmed? Hopefully. Euro is very cool next week. Gotta watch if any disturbances can amplify in the trough. I was hoping this wouldn't happen. Torch all winter into April and then as May comes and the wx should start to become summery it goes below normal. Hopefully after this week we go back at or above. Even 60s and sun would be fine. Any signal for next weekend and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 2-3 for all of us..AWT..Those 4-5 amts were ridiculous They'll be 4" amounts for sure. No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 2-3 for all of us..AWT..Those 4-5 amts were ridiculous AWT? When did you finally come around to widespread 2-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 AWT? When did you finally come around to widespread 2-3"? Where have you been? Watching leaf out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 AWT? When did you finally come around to widespread 2-3"? About 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Man this just might be 0ct 2011 all over again for some areas. 40mph winds too..especially in the high terrain in sw NY and western PA. 10-16" is a good starting place for the NWS WFO BUF... winds to 40mph plus heavy wet snow should be fun. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 330 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 NYZ012-019>021-085-220330- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.120423T0300Z-120423T2300Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 330 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER * TIMING...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH. It really takes a rare and special breed of storm to bring big synoptic snows to W NY and W PA, and this is one of them. It's not often we get one of these lows that moves NNW as it bombs out into NJ, E PA, and E NY. I seem to remember some events in the early to mid 90s that brought some big snows to these areas. I'd be willing to bet someone around Wellsville, NY or Bradford, PA gets a total like we did here in the Berks in the October 2011 event. As a snow weenie, I would find W NY and W PA to be difficult under most situations as they're often too far west to cash in on the good coastal lows that get New England. Not to mention the fact they often torch out there from dying primaries riding north into the Great Lakes. Although they get lake effect out there, I'm more of a snow pack snob, and lake effect out in W NY has very little staying power compared to synoptic snow here in New England. Anyhow, this will be W NY and W PA's chance to cash in big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Where have you been? Watching leaf out? Haha apparently. I still thought the KFS was keeping everyone under 2" with most averaging 1-1.5". My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Hopefully. I was hoping this wouldn't happen. Torch all winter into April and then as May comes and the wx should start to become summery it goes below normal. Hopefully after this week we go back at or above. Even 60s and sun would be fine. Any signal for next weekend and beyond? EC ens get warmer to seasonable after d10. Looks like the ridge axis will be more to our west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Pretty impressive forecast for northern/northeastern CT... added up its like 3-5" of rainfall. Sunday: Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 7am. High near 56. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Low around 45. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Monday: Rain before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain after 3pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 61. East wind around 13 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Parched ground like we have is actually less absorbent, increasing the flood threat compared to normal conditions. Yup--ground during a drought is kind of like pavement with grass on it. About 20 minutes ago. LOL Sun finally came out early afernoon here--beautiful day. Six cords stacked for next winter. With the PA/WNY forecast, I feel I should be burning some of it! Instead, about to drop the fertilzier in advance of the monsoon. Also--just made my run to the dump which has be go past the north river and the deerfield. Amazing to see the juxtapostiion of the reminders of Irene (washed out banks, fallen trees scattered in the rocks throughout the river, etc.) in the midst of the low water. It will nice to have that get livened over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 To many weather people are going for lot of rain which wont happen because of dry slots . heavy rain will stay west of sne area . we dont need any watches for sne area. most storms that moved west off of sne area gave us less rainfall than forecast because of dry slot that moves up too east of the low . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Pretty impressive forecast for northern/northeastern CT... added up its like 3-5" of rainfall. Sunday: Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 7am. High near 56. North wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. Low around 45. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 13 mph increasing to between 18 and 21 mph. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Monday: Rain before 2pm, then a slight chance of rain after 3pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 61. East wind around 13 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. So Mt. Tolland is the SNE jackpot? Classic! It would appear that the dry has stopped begetting. I guess the grass will finally start growing. Neat how the dryness had no impact on its 'greenness'. I guess that's the difference between a spring dry spell and one in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Well it's possible that since this will wrap up kind of quick, that the 4" amounts may be more isolated. But widespread 2-3" was not what Kevin thought. There probably will be iso 4" totals. These setups are notorious for overachieving, but having this wrap up into NJ may preclude that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 To many weather people are going for lot of rain which wont happen because of dry slots . heavy rain will stay west of sne area . we dont need any watches for sne area. most storms that moved west off of sne area gave us less rainfall than forecast because of dry slot that moves up too east of the low . CT_BLIZZard24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 It is weaker amplitude in phase 3 right now, so could be the residual forcing around the dateline is more prevalent in the pattern characteristics. One thought that has crossed my mind is the tendency for more destructive interference between shortwaves this past winter. This would tend to support less phasing this weekend, and the trough maturing later / further northeast. Not sure how much this has translated into the spring though. 2 things... Residual forcing is something I am a proponent of - 'forces in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by another force'. I've discussed this before regarding the ENSO states... And example of this is onset warm ENSOs that take place in August I do not believe have much impact on Hurricane Seasons as though that onset earlier in the calendar year. I am little leery about using the past cool seasons deconstructive tendencies now. The R-wave characteristic are already quite different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Looks like models ticked back west again overnight. Not a surprise since ensembles were always over NYC. Deluge from NYC CT and most of SNE. Heaviest seems like CT and central and wrn MA, but widespread 2-3" for most. This 18z NAM run tries to warm sector eastern zones believe it or not. LI down -2 at BOS with T1 spike to over 15C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This 18z NAM run tries to warm sector eastern zones believe it or not. LI down -2 at BOS with T1 spike to over 15C! Yeah I saw that. Even a semi convective looking band develops Monday aftn and again Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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