Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 God I'd love to see you write that in the winter...caution on big amounts, lol. You sound like Ryan or Coastalwx in January when you are handing out 15-30" snowfalls. In the winter there's usually good reason to go high, but for rains in a dry spring in drought conditions with a progged coastal storm that we haven't had in 6 months should have everyone cautious. This is by no means a lock to give everyone 2-6 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 In the winter there's usually good reason to go high, but for rains in a dry spring in drought conditions with a progged coastal storm that we haven't had in 6 months should have everyone cautious. This is by no means a lock to give everyone 2-6 inches of rain Well the 4"+ amounts will obviously not be in a huge area, but many will get 2-3"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 God I'd love to see you write that in the winter...caution on big amounts, lol. You sound like Ryan or Coastalwx in January when you are handing out 15-30" snowfalls. LOL dry begets dry. I don't think I've ever seen the KFS go conservative. It's like the euro being most bullish on snowfall or the nam being low on qpf...it never happens. That's awesome. Beautiful area. Yeah. I love traveling anywhere really. I'd love to be able to get to every state in the US someday or just be able to go on a 3 month road trip across the country...that would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Well the 4"+ amounts will obviously not be in a huge area, but many will get 2-3"+. I don't agree with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I don't agree with that You think you get less then 2"? I'd say 2.4" for the O/U iyby and I'd take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 LOL dry begets dry. I don't think I've ever seen the KFS go conservative. It's like the euro being most bullish on snowfall or the nam being low on qpf...it never happens. Yeah. I love traveling anywhere really. I'd love to be able to get to every state in the US someday or just be able to go on a 3 month road trip across the country...that would be awesome. Time to get back at it and bury the nose in the high school books. Time to stop trying to marry into a Polygamist colony in Utah and get back to focusing on your future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The KFS may be destroyed by a flood and mud slide on mount tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I don't agree with that What's your call for SNE's 5 climo stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Time to get back at it and bury the nose in the high school books. Time to stop trying to marry into a Polygamist colony in Utah and get back to focusing on your future LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What's your call for SNE's 5 climo stations? BOS under 1.5 BDL under 2 PVD under 1.75 ORH 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 BOS under 1.5 BDL under 2 PVD under 1.75 ORH 2+ What about BDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table I couldn't disagree more. When this thing approaches from the south, it will be a wall of water Sunday evening... NOT very showery... I expect a gradient from W to E due to best dynamics and frontogenesis to the west (along with oro enhancement) but I fully expect widespread 2-3" amounts (except maybe the Cape/Islands). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The KFS weeklies are going to go down in flames WRT the call of less than 1" of addition rain in April, back in the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 BOS under 1.5 BDL under 2 PVD under 1.75 ORH 2+ Over on all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I couldn't disagree more. When this thing approaches from the south, it will be a wall of water Sunday evening... NOT very showery... I expect a gradient from W to E due to best dynamics and frontogenesis to the west (along with oro enhancement) but I fully expect widespread 2-3" amounts (except maybe the Cape/Islands). Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 In the winter there's usually good reason to go high, but for rains in a dry spring in drought conditions with a progged coastal storm that we haven't had in 6 months should have everyone cautious. This is by no means a lock to give everyone 2-6 inches of rain You have some valid points except in the winter there's reason to go high... I'd say it's the opposite with in this case seeing tropical connections and massive forcing, the models may be under doing spot amounts. Do models historically under forecast cold season QPF and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Over on all. This is a very dense, low-ratio rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Winds are ripping here suddenly. Dried manure blowing like a dirvish out of the barn across the street. Fortunately I'm up-wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 BOS under 1.5 BDL under 2 PVD under 1.75 ORH 2+ The KFS is the lowest QPF forecast right now of the models, but it's trends have been steadily increasing QPF for 3 days now so that's noteworthy...at first it was half inch or less, then .5-1" and now 1-2" with locally higher amounts. When the dry model continues to increase QPF you know it's going to rain. Even basin averages of 1.5-2" will greatly help the water tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The KFS is the lowest QPF forecast right now of the models, but it's trends have been steadily increasing QPF for 3 days now so that's noteworthy...at first it was half inch or less, then .5-1" and now 1-2" with locally higher amounts. When the dry model continues to increase QPF you know it's going to rain. Even basin averages of 1.5-2" will greatly help the water tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 stationary front coupled with a cut-off to your near south = heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Today is so damn nice. 75F under mostly clear skies. Sweet stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NW ME starts out as snow Sunday on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Looks like tiny shift east on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Over on all. Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 BOS under 1.5 BDL under 2 PVD under 1.75 ORH 2+ really? disagree. with all of those except ORH LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I went skiing in Park City for the last 2 days before they closed, then visited family in Salt Lake, then saw Bryce and Zion (national parks) the last few days. It was a lot of driving in the middle of nowhere...but it was fun. How 'bout that 80 mph speed limit south of I-70 on I-15? Fun. Makes Zion closer. How was the water situation around Zion? I imagine it's nice and green for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I couldn't disagree more. When this thing approaches from the south, it will be a wall of water Sunday evening... NOT very showery... I expect a gradient from W to E due to best dynamics and frontogenesis to the west (along with oro enhancement) but I fully expect widespread 2-3" amounts (except maybe the Cape/Islands). yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The KFS is the outlier and driest of all guidance and should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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