dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Goofus is pretty far west with the max precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What a storm on the NAM? Wind damage with soaked tree roots??? I wonder if there is a formula in hydrology for saturation rate based upon initial conditions. 3.5" of rain over a parched soil condition - I know in the midwest that's a bad thing if it comes too quick because you lose some larger amt to run-off, because it takes time for the top soil to not resist absorption. I would imagine there's similar condition locally. Also, 3.5" of rain integrated into the depths of a heavily depleted root-ball system, imho, isn't cutting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What PA snow on the goofus? later frames say "not so fast". not quite the pummeling the NAM shows...but still the potential there for elevated parts of western & NC PA to pick up a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What an awesome comma head on the GFS. BUF-BFD get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Lotta rain in NE... 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Drought busting soaker on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 I wonder if there is a formula in hydrology for saturation rate based upon initial conditions. 3.5" of rain over a parched soil condition - I know in the midwest that's a bad thing if it comes too quick because you lose some larger amt to run-off, because it takes time for the top soil to not resist absorption. I would imagine there's similar condition locally. Also, 3.5" of rain integrated into the depths of a heavily depleted root-ball system, imho, isn't cutting it. yes there are coefficients for different soil conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 of course you all know its a new moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 of course you all know its a new moon. And celebrate it with a 12pk of Blue Moon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What an awesome comma head on the GFS. BUF-BFD get destroyed. I'm a little concerned about the further east and slightly weaker solution that the 12z offers, but it still appears to be a decent hit. The 06z GFS BUFKIT had a surprisingly very cold b.l. that would be snow even at lower elevations. So far the TV stations around here are very hesitant to even mention the possibility of snow...can't say I fault them too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table I am going 1-3" with lolis to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I think it's Wills rule, but he always says these things always trend east the last 24 hours. I won't be surprised if this does that and gets more of the Poconos up into Eny and Vt with snowfall and misses Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I must say it's amazing how different it is as far as leaf out...since I left 7 days ago. It's incredible...and what a nice day out! 73/40, I wish we could go back to days like today after the rain...or at least 65+, I don't need anymore 50s after this rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I must say it's amazing how different it is as far as leaf out...since I left 7 days ago. It's incredible...and what a nice day out! 73/40, I wish we could go back to days like today after the rain...or at least 65+, I don't need anymore 50s after this rainstorm. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table The Cape may get the least with 1-2" there, but I'd say from I-95 and points west 2-4" with 5"+ possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Yeah, that event, even though we didn't see snow in central PA, always stood out in my mind. It's not that out of the ordinary out west to see that kind of warmth morph into a major snowstorm...but its pretty anomalous out here in the east. I would love to experience an event like that. Even if this upcoming storm generates snow for spots say out in the Appalachians...it still won't rival that 2000 event. Temps are in the 70's today...but will fall back to the 50's tomorrow and Sunday before the threat of snow would arrive late Sunday. That event was awesome...I was in high school and I remember Friday they put out Winter Storm Watches for the Catskills. Saturday was shorts and soccer in full sun and 70s, parents doing yardwork etc...then it started to rain that evening and Sunday morning there was already 8" on the ground. It dumped 1"/hr steadily into the afternoon and we had 15" in Delmar at 300ft elevation. From the roar of lawn mowers and power washers to snowblowers in about 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 AWT I've never left in April before...it's weird to come back and in just one week to see such a big change. But we are still ahead of average for sure, but maybe only a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I'm a little concerned about the further east and slightly weaker solution that the 12z offers, but it still appears to be a decent hit. The 06z GFS BUFKIT had a surprisingly very cold b.l. that would be snow even at lower elevations. So far the TV stations around here are very hesitant to even mention the possibility of snow...can't say I fault them too much. Yeah it's hard to go with the weenie snow amounts quite yet for reasons that you state and also the development of the low and comma head will be critical. However, it's progged beautifully on the models products showing banding...just a matter of where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I've never left in April before...it's weird to come back and in just one week to see such a big change. But we are still ahead of average for sure, but maybe only a week or so. Where did you go again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I've never left in April before...it's weird to come back and in just one week to see such a big change. But we are still ahead of average for sure, but maybe only a week or so. I missed the leaf out by 1 day. I had said the 15th and it occurred on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table Whatever falls the lower CT. Valley will usually score the lowest QPF in events like the upcoming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Wow just impressive QPF amounts on all 12z models so far. New England from north to south and east to west looks to be in line for a drenching...and it's not like a small spatial area either. Probably the biggest widespread QPF event since at least October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Where did you go again? I went skiing in Park City for the last 2 days before they closed, then visited family in Salt Lake, then saw Bryce and Zion (national parks) the last few days. It was a lot of driving in the middle of nowhere...but it was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I missed the leaf out by 1 day. I had said the 15th and it occurred on the 16th LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Everyone just take it easy with rainfall amounts lol. It's highly doubtful that everyone gets 2-5 inches. For now we go 1-2 as most likely. Banded precip means some do great and others get bent over table God I'd love to see you write that in the winter...caution on big amounts, lol. You sound like Ryan or Coastalwx in January when you are handing out 15-30" snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Whatever falls the lower CT. Valley will usually score the lowest QPF in events like the upcoming one. The closer it stays tucked in near NYC the better the valley will do I'd guess, at least relatively speaking, because the more southerly the winds, the less downsloping. It's the wrapped up storms moving ENE that are the real screw jobs I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I went skiing in Park City for the last 2 days before they closed, then visited family in Salt Lake, then saw Bryce and Zion (national parks) the last few days. It was a lot of driving in the middle of nowhere...but it was fun. That's awesome. Beautiful area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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