CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 NAM is a bomb. LOL. down under 980 mb. Holy crap. Nice wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 I think springtime tree damage from snow is overrated compared with fall...October storms like 2011 or 1986 created ice storm like damage. Same with that BUF lake event a couple years back. Spring events I've witnessed including April 28-29, 2010 up here where 6-24" of wet snow fell on fully leafed trees to 2000ft, with 6" at BTV and 18" from 1000ft up...only scattered power outages occurred. That was also a very early green up type of spring and I remember having 8" of pure slop at 350ft on leafed out trees with no damage. Also May 18, 2002 comes to mind with 3-4" of 6:1 ratio snow near ALB and saw no issues. I think the airport only had 2.2" but some of the burbs had a little more. Then 4-10" fell above 1000ft in the surrounding hilltowns. By that time of year it's full on summer as far as vegetation is concerned but I don't remember any damage. For whatever reason, Oct storms seem more destructive than April/May snowfalls. I was only 9 (actually, still 8), but the May 1977 event brought down a lot of trees/branches in SNE. In April, most places have smaller leaves (or even no leaves) out. October still had most trees with tons of full sized leaves on them. I would guess a late April event further south might do more damage than NNE in early to mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 How does that not make you feel creeped out? You could be the new Wiggle... entertaining 3 year olds and Blizz Jackpot ChrisM for rain totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Holy crap. Nice wind. yeah 80 knots down to 925 mb. northeast region-wide drought buster there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 SNE and snow should not be uttered in the same sentence... As to rain, nice! Negative tilted southern stream gets entirely subsumbed by the polar stream as it lifts along or just off the EC. The two get hitched somewhere over the Del Marva and give birth to a nice midland 980's mb -type low. There is a low probability wind event in this one would have to think. Sou'easter style for Long Island, the Cape zones, and perhaps toward Logan etc. Should be a 6 hour period of decent gradient packing in the PP, then as the low pulls inland toward NYS (then filling...) there may actually be an isollobaric wind tendency pointed anomalously NW. Interesting. Lack of antecedent cold and boundary layer forcing is what allows this system to move the way it does in the bevy of guidance types, which is to say, NW and wrapping inland around the deepening closure aloft. If there were by chance sufficient viscosity (cold air) over land, than cyclogenesis would be focused more seaward, and feedback from that would cause geopotential heights to fall (carve) more E and viola - classic Nor'easter. But, this sort of left hooking scenario is pretty acceptable considering the thermal fields are neutralized(ing). April is like that.. .whenever you see CAA in April...particularly post April 15, you can bet it is muted and less impressive both sensibly, but physically for events playing out at those times. By the way, I have to be fair and honest... This is one of the best sensible weather Aprils I can remember. I am typically loathing of this time of the year, for far more usually the mud season owns up to its name, and sometimes takes liberties going into May and gobbling up that month too. While still possible that May could wind up sucking very badly - notwithstanding - to this point, this April thus far has been epically benign/agreeable weather-wise. Yesterday's 73F high amid azure skies, light wind and low comfy DPs ...while bees kissed flowers and angels wept is getting kind of ridiculously commonplace. But, the other shoe should fall here in another 48 -70 hours and perhaps for good! The water deficits are fantastic considering it Spring of all times. We need to refit the ambient system before the true torridity of summer envelopes us. I believe Scott or Phil had covered this, but this could bring an impressive dose inside of 12 hours to whomever ends up favorably situated along llv convergence with that SE gravvy train rumbling overtop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Models actually park a deformation band right over them...lol. Unbelievable to see, but the track of the storm and evolution are crucial. It's not a lock yet. Those backside bands can do quite a number. 4/23/86 in NW NJ (we were visiting a friend there) got a foot or more from a deformation band, and I think the mid-90s dump about 4/20 in the ALB area one day after they had mid-upper 70s was the same kind of event. I think springtime tree damage from snow is overrated compared with fall...October storms like 2011 or 1986 created ice storm like damage. Same with that BUF lake event a couple years back. Agreed, though as already noted, 5/9/77 was an exception. Of course, I see 20" on 5/9 to be at least as anomalous as 20-30" in late Oct. What made last October's event so incredible was its very broad extent, far greater in area than was affected by 5/77. One reason for the greater damage in fall leaf-on snows is tree condition. In the fall, trees are shutting down and the wood is drying out, preparatory to the deep freeze. In April they're full of sap and much more flexible than in mid autumn. I've not seen much damage from the (comparatively) rare late winter ice storms, either, far less than the same accretion would cause in Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 the NAM would be a fascinating storm. would love for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 the NAM would be a fascinating storm. would love for that to verify. Sick QPF.... This is about a +4 SD anomaly, and considering we are in an ~ -4SD parch, that's pretty fascinating that this is happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 LL Cool J = Low Level Cool Jet! He's a weathe rapper! You guys worried about flash flooding? With how dry it's been, wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of water runoff with such a solid ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 You could be the new Wiggle... entertaining 3 year olds and Blizz Jackpot ChrisM for rain totals? Yeah could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Those backside bands can do quite a number. 4/23/86 in NW NJ (we were visiting a friend there) got a foot or more from a deformation band, and I think the mid-90s dump about 4/20 in the ALB area one day after they had mid-upper 70s was the same kind of event. Sure that wasn't late 90's? I remember a spring event when I was in school at PSU, where the Poconos were in the 70's with winter storm warnings up for the following day...that would've been 99, maybe even 2000. Could've been a different event too I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Sure that wasn't late 90's? I remember a spring event when I was in school at PSU, where the Poconos were in the 70's with winter storm warnings up for the following day...that would've been 99, maybe even 2000. Could've been a different event too I suppose. Right you are! For ALB: 4/8/2000...76...37...0.03.....0 4/9/2000...37...26...1.56...13.3 For some reason, I had it fixed in my mind that it occurred before my move to the foothills in 5/98. Gettin' old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Meanwhile ....yummy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 12z nam drops 3.06" here of rain, But i want to see the other models before i believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Right you are! For ALB: 4/8/2000...76...37...0.03.....0 4/9/2000...37...26...1.56...13.3 For some reason, I had it fixed in my mind that it occurred before my move to the foothills in 5/98. Gettin' old... Yeah, that event, even though we didn't see snow in central PA, always stood out in my mind. It's not that out of the ordinary out west to see that kind of warmth morph into a major snowstorm...but its pretty anomalous out here in the east. I would love to experience an event like that. Even if this upcoming storm generates snow for spots say out in the Appalachians...it still won't rival that 2000 event. Temps are in the 70's today...but will fall back to the 50's tomorrow and Sunday before the threat of snow would arrive late Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The NAM has quite the band of S+ too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 The NAM has quite the band of S+ too. Western PA and NY jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Somehow if snow occurs, this will all get thrown into the circle j*rk of extremes and climate change. After all, closes lows on the east coast never occur in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Its all because of global warming............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What a storm on the NAM? Wind damage with soaked tree roots??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 WOW!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Bradford PA FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What a storm on the NAM? Wind damage with soaked tree roots??? The worst model in the history of modeling has a big storm well beyond the useful range. Cool to look at though, but just as likely it's almost totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Have to replace one of my Arborvitaes, Going to do that tonight, Guess i won't have to worry about watering it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 UNV FTW at 1200'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Bradford PA FTW. Potter County Pounder. Clown maps have been burying the North Shore in PQ for several runs. Edit: Water that tree! Otherwise this event might revert to the near-whiff GFS was showing yest morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 What PA snow on the goofus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 UNV FTW at 1200'? Walker building FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 GFS bombs the low over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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